Pre-Thanksgiving Thankfulness...

Seeing Ichiro raise the 12th Man flag at Qwest Field yesterday, especially with the way he exploded in joy, waiving the towel, and really cheering hard, reminded me of how thankful I am that the M's don't have to resolve that question this offseason.



They have a lot to worry about, but, thankfully, Ichiro's status isn't on that list.

Yeah, things probably won't go like we all want this offseason. I'm not sure how many people really wanted the status quo with McLaren and Bavasi. Still, the status quo with Ichiro is just fine by me. Things could be a lot worse...

All Star Game Day Reaction

What a day. Upon hearing the Ichiro news, I instantly lost any semblance of focus at work. I'm an addict, and I need to re-read the-blogger-formerly-known-as-Munchausen's treatise on baseball and ideologies to help me come back down to earth.

But I can't.

This season, it feels like baseball has loved me back and thanked me. My fandom of George Sherrill in particular has almost always been rewarded (even tangibly), and my die-hardedness in sticking by the M's through thick and thin and Howard Lincoln is also beginning to result in joy that honestly feels as real as a lot of joy I've experienced from more tangible and un-ideological events.

But that's for another post. I want to jot down a few things that crossed my mind during the few glances I got at the game yesterday. I didn't see much of the beginning of it, but I did listen on the radio, and I saw some highlights after the game.

1) Hearing Griffey gunning down A-Rod on the radio was just awesome. Seeing it on the highlights afterwards was even better. I could almost hear Griffey's thoughts about his Seattle homecoming and the reception that A-Rod still gets in Seattle. The camera didn't show him in the field afterward, but I'd bet that trademark grin was at least somewhat cracked.

2) Would you expect anything else from Ichiro? I mean, here he comes into one of the NL parks where a lot of people thought he might be playing at in 2008 and beyond (Dodger stadium would've gotten my vote, though) , upstaging a mega-bopper in his home park, on his own stage, by making history in his own unique way -- hitting the first ITP HR in ASG history. To borrow from a common Lookout Landing joke -- Ichiro is selfish because he rewrites history...

3) Speaking of the ITP HR, it's also fascinating that the RF victim was, yes, Ken Griffey Junior. Gunning down A-Rod, but being the unfortunate victim of a horrible bounce, along with the 2-RBI night that, had the NL held the lead, might've helped Griffey win the ASG MVP. Griffey's still got his game. No RF in the game would've prevented Ichiro's ITP, likely even one that plays RF every day in SF. Maybe I'm biased, but that was a wicked, wicked bounce that fooled everyone. I love Jose Guillen -- seriously, I'm not advocating trading him at all, although I can accept the thoughts from those who do want to trade him -- but Griffey's defense is still acceptable, if not very solid in RF. He's not a CF anymore, and his defense has definitely lost several steps. But he's not a DH-only either. I know Adam Jones is coming up to play RF for now with the M's. Having Griffey come back in 2007 and take over RF, shifting AJ to LF would be the icing of the cake, and would help the M's chances of contending at least as much as adding another starting pitcher would. I know it ain't happening, but if it did, I don't know how I could contain my excitement. Heck, I might even go to FanFest next January and ask Howard's permission to give him a freakin' hug!

4) So indeed Ichiro goes all MVP on the ASG, on the day where the news has pretty clearly leaked out around the world that he's pretty much baseball's newest $100 million man, yet in the interview during the award ceremony, Jeanne Zelasko closes her interview with Ichiro by stating something like "See San Fransisco fans? Ichiro can hit home runs, and he'll be a free agent!" The look on Ichiro's face (after all, Ichiro does know English very well, he just is more comfortable w/a translator because, well, he's neurotic about details) and his body gestures seemed to suggest that he was about ready to make a comment about that. And it was going to be his own way of saying "STFU!" if my memory serves me correctly. EDIT -- Here's the clip on YouTube (at least for the time being -- note that it's not there anymore)...

So, yeah, I agree with Dave Cameron. Yesterday was the biggest day in Mariner Fandom since 10/8/1995. For those of you too young to remember, or not paying attention back then -- I just have two words: "Edgar Double." That should jog your memory...

Could Griffey and Ichiro Co-Exist?

I'm not tired of all the Griffey talk. I'm sorry if you are, and don't want any more. Too bad. While Buhner was my favorite M back in that era, Griffey wasn't far behind. Watching the two of them together, though, really drew me into baseball. Seeing Griffey play with his dad, too, drew me in further. To me, one of baseball's all-time greatest moments happened when Jr. and Sr. had back-to-back HRs. Such a feat hadn't happened before, and I'd be hard pressed to believe it'll happen again. While I know that Junior is gone (as are those days w/the M's), the one that's still with us is still pretty doggone good.

Again, the M's playoffs discussion starts with improving the run prevention -- via starting pitching and defense. Maybe Yuni will remember how to throw the ball to first base, and that will help some. And maybe they'll do something about that outfield defense.

But a part of me can see a bit of merit in luring Griffey back to Seattle. Hear me out, before you blow a gasket. I recognize that it's folly to believe that a) he'd want to come back here and b) the M's would pony up the cash/players to make it happen. Let me be a fan boy homer for a weekend. And wallow in the misery of the joy of my past (and lack thereof in the present).

Let's look at something interesting for a minute. How would bringing Griffey back to Seattle affect Ichiro? I could argue that Ichiro would love it. Imagine Griffey's .932 OPS vs. lefties and .960 OPS vs. righties batting third for the Mariners. You think Ichiro would hate being driven in all the time? I think Ichiro would be happy with that. I'm not sure he's real thrilled about the lineup that's currently constructed behind him. Also, chew on this for a minute:

In March 1999, as part of a working agreement between the Nintendo-owned Mariners and the Blue Wave, Ichiro joined the M's for a spring training stint. He became friends with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez and began to dream of playing in Seattle. (--ESPN the Magazine archives)

Ichiro dreamed of playing specifically in Seattle, thanks at least in part to Junior? Again, that Junior may not be around anymore, but the Junior that is certainly has his value. He may have lost a dozen steps defensively, but he still loves playing the game. And he can still hit. He's still showing his 41% better-than-league-average bat. A career OPS+ of 141, and his 2007 OPS+ thus far still exactly right there.

Looking to the future, too -- if Ichiro leaves, and the M's don't show any signs of moving towards giving the fans exciting October baseball, then they'll need something to really keep people interested. I'm all for a temporary stop-gap for excitement and relevance of the execs bringing back Griffey to spend his last days back here where he belongs. Landing career milestons in the uni from which he launched 'em.

Felix will be good and all, but I doubt he's done anywhere close to 'nuff for the Safeco bandwagoners to crown him king of their hearts, like the blogosphere has (even if those crown-givers are seeing the tarnish in his crown). If Ichiro leaves, then the M's will be really hurtin' and will need a quick-fix to grab some fans back. It'd be completely easy for them to market the heck out of Griffey's return enough to keep 2 million or so ticket buyers' wallets open.

It wouldn't necessarily be a bad move. Or, wait. It probably would. I'm just a victim of all this damned propganda!

/Wakes up from dream land.
//Grabs a kleenex...

What to do with Ichiro...

I've been mulling over this post for a long, long time. I figure I better start writing things down and finish it before it's a) irrelevant or b) covered excessively elsewhere. Since b) can only get worse as the 2007 season rolls on, I'm going to get my thoughts down now.

In analyzing the Ichiro situation, and his impending free agency, it's relatively straightforward to take a simple approach -- look at scenarios and do a cost-benefit analysis of those scenarios. So, that's what I'm going to do here. I'll definitely further discuss my opinions in a later post or two, but for now I just want to make an attempt to lay down some simple framework.

Scenaro 1 -- Ichiro is traded during the season

Notes: For this to happen, it will have to become very, very clear that Ichiro wants to leave Seattle, and becomes very public or vocal about it. I'd be very surprised if this scenario comes into play, even though I could argue it may make the most sense for the M's.

Cost:

• Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears.
• If LH major-league-ready bat doesn't come over in a trade, that's one more LH bat the M's need to add back into the lineup.
  
• Fans disappointed/angry/sad/annoyed, etc. (leading to potential significant revenue loss).
  
• Potential loss of other role players in an Ichiro + trade.
• M's lose a little more of the national spotlight, and their relevance, by losing a nationally-recognized Mariner (i.e. when some random Yankees fan in Illinois is asked to name at least one Seattle Mariner, I'd bet that fan would be most likely to name Ichiro, if he/she's able to name any M's player at all. We need to work more on the "Free George Sherrill" campaign).
  

Benefit:

• Adam Jones develops as the M's new CF, and adds a little more punch to the lineup.
  
• Ichiro would likely bring some big time impact players via trade -- players that would potentially fill more than one hole on the team.
• A possibly distracting situation is resolved.
  

Scenario 2 -- Ichiro stays the entire season, and leaves via free agency.

Notes: This is a real possibility, with Howard/Chuck and the rest of the M's execs very hesitant to trade their franchise player. It would also likely be the most painful for everyone but Ichiro. However, since this really would be one of the first times Ichiro would be a free agent , ever, I can see where he really honestly would like to at least reach free agency. I mean, think about it -- wouldn't you want to have the baseball resume Ichiro has, and finally be able to have a lot of control over your own destiny? It's Russian Roulette for the team, as it really could be tough selling Ichiro on this franchise's future. Especially if the front office turmoil that needs to happen, happens. But, of course, one could argue that a front office churnage would also encourage Ichiro to stick around. Especially if the manager's one of those casualties...

Cost:

• Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears (in 2008 and beyond).
• Losing out on potential trade chips that could help the team.
  
• M's lose relevance and national spotlight even more (in 2008 and beyond).
• Another LH bat needed in the lineup.
  

Benefit:

• Ichiro helps the team in 2007, if they are close to a playoff race.
  
• Payroll flexibility, as Ichiro's not going to be cheap.
  
• Adam Jones inherits the CF job.
  
• Team would definitely offer arbitration, and get the draft pick(s) that Ichiro's departure could potentially help out in the future more than Ichiro can.
  

Scenario 3 -- Ichiro remains a Mariner, either through signing a contract extension during the season, or as a free agent.

Notes: Right now, I'd say this is the most likely scenario, but, honestly, that's more of a guess than anything. Unless Ichiro truly wants out (which I don't think even he knows yet, but is still very, very possible), I think he stays in Seattle. The M's will give him plenty of money, and I'm sure he knows that, and I can certainly see where that might not be the best idea, too.

Cost:

• Payroll. Lots of it. Ichiro's going to get a boatload of cash. He'd likely tie up around 20% of the M's payroll. That's a huge chunk, really.
• Potential trade of Adam Jones or other OF prospects (Wlad, Reed, etc...).
• Risk of aging effects. I would argue that Ichiro's more likely to buck the aging trends, but I still recognize that there's some real, significant risk in committing 3-5 years to a 35+ year old player.
  
• Flexibility. Sort of inherent in the payroll thing, because they do go hand-in-hand, but it could work to their disadvantage, too. If they're going to have a $100 million payroll from now on, is it in their best interest to give Jose Guillen 1/2 of what Ichiro would've gotten? By giving so much money to Ichiro, this answers that question a bit. But, it also could close another potential opening for a much needed power hitter.
  
• Losing out on potential trade chips that, combined, could help the team more than Ichiro himself could.

Benefit:

• M's keep some relevance and retain some national spotlight (in 2008 and beyond).
• Ichiro's hitting, fielding, running. While there's some risk of those skills diminishing, there's also a fair enough chance that they don't decline significantly. Especially if you consider Ichiro (as I do) a HOF-caliber player.
  
• One less LH bat to acquire.
• Fan satisfaction -- potential retention of revenue by having happy fans that don't overreact to losing yet another huge Seattle franchise star...
  

Okay, so that's my stab at this. What am I missing? Do you see costs/benefits in any of these scenarios that I've overlooked. I know you do -- I can't see everything, and I tend to overlook even the obvious a lot of the time...