POYTHRESS YESSSS!!!!!

While I'm still catching up, I see that the M's drafted Rich Poythress at #51. Even if they didn't pick BPA at 27 and 33, the guys they got there have some useful talent, and if they're able to sign Poythress, this draft is a HUGE win for me. Huge!

Seriously, while we're likely going to regret not taking a shot at one of the pitchers that were available at 27 and 33, I still am mostly happy about this draft.

Draft Day, 2009

Perhaps because of my friendship with Jason Churchill, I'd say this is the most informed I've ever been coming into a draft. To keep things in perspective, however, I'll definitely caveat that by saying I've still really got no clue. I have some opinions, and they're semi-informed, but my opinions aren't really worth much. Still, I'll take a few minutes and jot down my thoughts because I always like to look back years later to see what I was thinking and to provide context for future arguments that I know I'll have...

When building my opinion on players for the draft, I place a lot more value in scouting reports than in statistics. There are so many factors that influence statistics such that you can't really tell by the statistics what type of baseball player a draftee may become. Yeah, you can see some trends and some things in the numbers, but they're almost as meaningless as spring training statistics. Having said that, you can't ignore statistics all together. Obviously a guy who slugs .700 has some pop in his bat. Aluminum bats or not, that can't be ignored.

When the M's swept Oakland to end the season, they lost the shot at having the first overall pick in today's draft. That pretty much meant they're the bridesmaid in the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes. While it is sort of a bummer, I'm going to focus on the positives. Heh.

In general, pitchers are riskier than hitters. High school pitchers are riskier than college pitchers. That seems to be common knowledge. So, in that regard, I would be fine with the M's being the bridesmaid in this draft when Dustin Ackley is the "consolation prize." He's a lefty bat, with tremendous speed, decent power, good outfield instincts, and he should be a safe bet to be a decent player in the majors. I'm not going to name "comps" because that's just ridiculous, IMHO, but should his arm heal up enough to regain strength to throw from CF again, he will be a very good value. Interestingly, and somewhat unsurprisingly, Dave Cameron throws the idea up on FanGraphs that "there's a not-too-ridiculous case to be made that the Nationals should draft Dustin Ackley instead [of Strasburg]." I've been thinking that for quite some time (and not just because of wishful thinking that Washintgon passes on Strasburg).

Tanner Scheppers is a guy that's been talked a lot about, too. While there's legitmate concerns about his shoulder stuff (as there was with Morrow), his "stuff" is second only to Strasburg's (according to the reports I've read). There's a lot of risk with pitchers in general, so it'll be interesting to see what happens to him, even if the M's don't draft him.

Guys I've been following a bit are Rich Poythress, Matt Purke and Tyler Matzek. The latter two are prep pitchers -- left handers -- with excellent stuff. Poythress is a righty lumbering first baseman for Georgia. If any of those three fell to the M's at 27, I'd be excited. I doubt any of them will, however, even with outrageous bonus demands.

Guys I'm not very high on in this draft (where others are) include Grant Green and Brett Jackson. Green's got some legitimate concerns w/r/t fielding position, and Brett Jackson has questions about his bat. They're still both good enough to be considered first rounders in this current draft, however.

One thing's for certain -- about the only thing the M's DON'T need is a relief pitcher. Yeah, they have some depth at several positions, but I'm pretty confident that if they choose a particular player it won't solely be because they're drafting a guy to fill a need. Since Day One, Zduriencik has said it's all about filling this team with as much talent as it can get. Ryan Divish reports this morning that the M's aren't really concerned about bonus demands -- they're more focused on getting the "best player available:"

And according to McNamara, the Mariners are committed to getting the best players. Things like outrageous signing bonuses and difficult agents aren’t issues.

“Not an issue,” he said. “We’re lining them up and taking the best guys. We keep it to talent.

I'll believe that when I see it. Clearly the budget-conscious Howard Lincoln has given Zduriencik and McNamara a dollar figure. And that dollar figure is probably lower than what M's fans and draft followers think it should be.

If, however, Washington takes Cameron's advice and picks Ackley over Strasburg, then I'm willing to bet that dollar figure is increased just a little bit.

I'm with Zdurienck, Mac! Just get it right! I've been very disappointed with the M's choices in the most recent draft. Save for Aumont, they've pretty much gone in the direction I didn't want them to go in. This year, there are several options, and knowing that the M's aren't going to blow huge bucks on the draft (in spite of what Divish reports this morning), so long as they don't draft one of the guys I don't like ahead of one I do, I probably won't go too ballistic. There's talent to be had, for sure, and the only way I'm disappointed is if the M's go waaaaay cheap and pass up on highly-rated players for easy-sign overdrafts.

Just get it right.

Oh, Wlad... Oh, Wak...

After catching an inning of the Rainiers on TV, I decided to flip over to Felix and the M's. I watched most of the game, flipping back-and-forth to the R's game (Yikes, Hyphen! YAAAAY ADAM!!!). The end of the M's game, however, really shocked me. Rob Johnson amazed me yet again with a reasonably decent defensive performance. My issue with Rob has been with his ability to block low pitches and just his overall catching the ball behind the plate. I've always thought his arm was pretty good, but I never understood why, beyond his arm, he was considered a good catcher. But that's a discussion for another day.

I was surprised that Wlad was still in the game in the bottom of the 9th and in the 10th. The M's strength this year has been pitching and defense. If you don't want to pinch hit for Wlad in the 9th, fine, but you gotta get your glove guy out there. People should know that I've been an advocate of Wlad's defense for awhile, but even I recognize that Endy Chavez is waaaay better out there.

In the top of the 10th, Wlad did his best Raul Ibanez impression and baaadly misplayed a ball, leading to a lead-off double. A walk to Morneau, and then Kubel comes up and jacks one darn near over the fence. Except that Mark Lowe owes Franklin Gutierrez a nice dinner - Gutz comes back with the ball and throws it to 2nd, keeping Morneau from advancing, while Mauer advanced to 3rd. Then we come to a very rare play that you don't see all the time -- a pitch-out on a suicide squeeze call, leading to the runner at 3rd being tagged out. It was a brilliant move, whoever called it. The Twins' batter at the plate tried his darndest to get some wood on the ball, but it was too far out and they were able to nail Mauer before he scored. Between the robbed HR, and the brilliant pitch-out, the M's had some major momentum.

Except, good GRAVY I need to re-consider my stance on Wlad's defense. And Wak's managing. Fastball/flyball pitcher on the mound (Lowe), late in the game and tied at 1 - you want your best OF defense out there. Wlad's un-catch (he nearly caught it, but took another horrible route to the ball) swung the mo' back in the Twin's favor and gave them the lead. There'd better be a good explanation as to why Endy was not out there...

I love Wlad, I really do. But that was some poor play and some poor decision-making out of Wak, too.

Finally!

After years of waiting, I finally got to see Adam Moore in person tonight. Obviously Marc got a head start, and has posted some fantastic pictures here of both him and Michael Saunders -- the two guys I focused a lot of attention on with my cameras tonight. As per usual, I didn't stay for the whole game, so I missed the epic comeback in the 8th. I haven't sifted through all the photos yet, and Jason gets first dibs (I've already sent him several). But I wanted to post just one photo from the game tonight -- actually I shot this just before the game during warmups. Here's Adam in his catcher's gear just before taking his spot behind home plate. While I wasn't über-impressed with his bat tonight (from what I saw anyway), I do have a photo of him keeping the ball in front of him and blocking the ball very well. Since the guys didn't take BP (they landed in Seattle at around 2 p.m., or so I was told), I'm not surprised their bats were a little rusty.

Rainiers Update

Just a quick photo-addled post to show just how much the Rainiers roster has turned over since my last post.
Joining the bottleneck at 1B/LF/DH is Brad Nelson, acquired from the Brewers about 2 weeks ago. He's had less than 20 ABs with the R's so far, and hit his first HR for Tacoma on Sunday. Today, the Nashville Sounds came to town - the team Nelson played for from 2005-2008.
So far, the 265-270lb Nelson's playing mostly in the OF corners, which looks like a disaster waiting to happen, but Nelson actually gets a decent jump and covers a bit of ground out there. He's not fast, so I'm not saying he's Endy Chavez, but he's done well so far - especially after a somewhat rough first game on Thursday night.


In addition to Nelson, Jack Zduriencik also picked up CF Jerry Owens, who'd been let go by the White Sox. Owens starts most games, pushing Prentice Redman into a corner OF slot.


Owens and Nelson are more properly thought of as organizational depth - not quite minor league vets who sign a new MiLB contract each year with little hope of seeing the big leagues, but not prospects either.
Adam Moore is clearly a prospect, and since his arrival a few weeks ago, he's gotten nearly every start at catcher, and his presence in the starting line-up seems to reinforce the idea that Jeff Clement's days as a catching prospect are over. Clement is now DHing due to knee troubles, but it's somewhat unlikely that they'd push Moore back to West Tennessee even if Clement gets a full bill of health.

...and in the tools of ignorance....

Moore hasn't hit for too much power; his swing looks good, though, and he should start racking up some 2Bs at the least -he had one today. He's also shown impressive plate discipline.

With Jason Vargas and Garrett Olson now in the M's rotation, the Rainiers now feature Doug Fister in the rotation. The 6'8" righty hasn't been as sharp in the rotation as he had been in the pen, but he's done fine so far. I don't think he'd miss a lot of MLB bats, but he's got impressive control, running a ridiculous 26:2 K:BB ratio so far.


Another guy the M's may utilize in the near future is LHRP Tyler Johnson, now healthy after surgery that kept him out all of 2008. The ex-Cardinal throws a high 80s FB with a good slider.
The impressively-inked Johnson made his 2009 debut on Sunday, throwing a 1-2-3 inning against Memphis, and using only 8 pitches.



Last but not least, OF prospect Michael Saunders rejoined the Rainiers after off-season shoulder surgery, and has wasted no time in showing everyone that he's fine. The Canuck has 11 extra base hits already, and made a great leaping catch in CF today, and ended Thursday's game with an assist at the plate. Photos soon....

Whoops!

Well, I pretty much jinxed the M's last week. I should know to keep my mouth shut over here...

In another note - I read in Baker's article this morning, that Griffey's hole-in-one HR into the Subway promotion won't net him the advertised $25,000. I would file a false advertising complaint and sue Subway for $250,000.

Twenty-five thousand can buy a lot of ties.

Summary, Thus far...

The 2001 M's were 14-4 after 18 games. The 2009 M's are now 12-6 -- two games back.

Only one series loss this year.

What else can be said, but WOW!

*Ahem* Uh, is this thing on?

Apparently, I can still post here!
I'll post this quick, before Paul notices....

The Rainiers season (and their current homestand) began a while ago, and STILL you lack a decent preview. I apologize, morsel readers.

In my defense, I was going to use Chris Jakubauskas as the focal point of it, but he went and got himself a job in the M's starting rotation. To think it was only a month ago or so that I was arguing with Churchill that he deserved a spot on the team.... TACOMA's team. I've never seen perception of a player's value change so quickly. Congrats, Chris - we at MM have some experience in championing indie-league vets, so you're in good company.

Anyway, the Rainiers really should have a good team this year. While they're a bit light in actual prospects compared to years past, that should change fairly soon. They're also extremely deep on offense - something they haven't had in quite some time.
At 1B, Chris Shelton and Mike Carp expected to split time, with Bryan LaHair. Carp is the actual prospect in the group, and as such has cemented his position as the starter (he's tied for the lead in games played). It also helps that he's absolutely annihilating the ball, hitting his 3rd HR yesterday against Vin Mazzaro of Sacramento (a good prospect himself).

Chris Shelton, coming off his scorching spring and disappointing assignment to Tacoma, has been the DH, with occasional starts at 1B and 3B.


C Jeff Clement may be practicing at 1B, but he certainly hasn't played there yet. He's DH'd some, but he's also still catching most games. He got off to a much-publicized slow start, but he's come alive on the recent homestand, going 5-16 with his first two XBH's after starting 1-19.



At 2B the Rainiers are using a combination of Chris Burke and Callix Crabbe.
Crabbe is also playing quite a bit of SS, splitting time with Chris Woodward.
Here's Crabbe:

And here's Woodward:


Matt Tuiasosopo, Mike Morse, and Chris Shelton have seen time at 3b. Paul got some great shots of Tui/Shelton on opening day, which you can see in the comments here....

The OF is still a bit unsettled, as slugging corner OF Mike Wilson (fresh from his record-setting spring training) is currently on the DL. Prentice Redman is back for another year, and he's joined by Freddy Guzman, another defensive-minded OF who was hurt early on in spring training this year. Mike Morse and Bryan LaHair hold down the other corner OF spot, at least until Mike Saunders recovers from shoulder surgery. Chris Burke has also played some CF, and indie-leaguer and ex-Brewers farmhand Steve Moss is on hand as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement in CF.

The rotation so far has featured Jason Vargas, Chris Seddon, Garrett Olson, Andrew Baldwin and Gaby Hernandez. No one's really putting up eye-popping K:BB ratios or anything - as should be expected from a group whose pure stuff isn't awe-inspiring. Still, the group is very solid and it's one reason Tacoma's off to such a fast start.
Vargas pitched 5 2/3IP of 1 hit, 0 run ball yesterday - despite getting 2Ks and walking 4. Just like in Seattle, a good defense really, really matters. Callix Crabbe made some amazing plays on the IF, and Vargas got a number of lazy fly balls. Overall, it's not a surefire recipe for success, but he's been quite solid. The lefty's FB is around 88MPH, and he used a change-up at around 79 MPH fairly often. He threw one big looping curve at 73.


Chris Seddon is another lefty throwing 87-88, who misses a few more bats with a slider and change.

Gaby Hernandez was once a prized prospect in the Mets organization - a righty with a power arsenal and the results to match. Then, in 2007, he started missing fewer bats and his progress stalled a bit. He was traded to the Marlins for a spell, then came to the M's in the Arthur Rhodes deal. He's got a sterling K:BB ratio, but his stuff seems a bit more pedestrian, and that's led a lot of hits (and 2HR in 10+ innings). On the plus side, some of the hits allowed are a result of the fact that he's getting more grounders now than ever before. He's young enough that he could really put a disappointing AFL/Spring/2008 behind him and get back on the map again with a good showing in 2009.
Andy Baldwin was the workhorse of the team in 2008, and he's off to a flying start in 2009. He uses a 90-or-so FB and a decent curve to keep hitters off balance. While he doesn't generate a lot of Ks or swinging strikes, he pounds the zone - he walked less than 6% of batters last year.
Olson was supposed to be the jewel of the rotation; he was a heralded prospect in the Baltimore organization and pitched most of the year for the birds last year. Unfortunately, he's gotten shelled in MLB in 2007 and 2008, and his K-sw% and swinging strikes have been falling since 2006. His tRA so far in 2009 is even worse than his MLB tRA last year, thanks largely to 8 BBs in only 8 IP (to 3 Ks). Olson, another lefty, uses an 87-88 MPH FB and a big breaking curve at 79-80. He's also got a change-up. Like Hernandez, Olson needs a big year to show that his MLB results were an aberration, and not the result of an injury or AAAA stuff. He'll start tonight in the series finale against Sacramento.

The Rainiers sit at 8-3, the top mark in the PCL. They lead Colorado Springs and Salt Lake by a half-game in the Pacific North division. The Bees come to town starting tomorrow evening for a four-game set.