So...Ryan Feierabend?

Ryan Feierabend pitched one of his best games at the AAA level in yesterday's opening day game. 6IP, 0R, 4H, 3BB and 7Ks. Where'd this come from?

Well, it's not from any new pitches. He was his normal three-pitch self last night, with his FB just the same as it was last year - from 85 to touching 90, but mostly 87-88 or so. His change-up was around 78, which is what the pitchfx data shows.

So how does a guy with standard platoon splits shut down a decent line-up stacked with righties?


First, it looked like he used the change-up much more than the curve. That's actually pretty similar to his M.O. vs. righties in the big leagues, but it was noticeable that the curve was a show-me pitch that he'd leave off the plate. That willingness to work off the plate showed up both in his higher than normal walk total and in his very low SLG percentage against. Remember, this is the same guy who allowed righties to slug over .600 in the majors, and who allowed PCL righties to slug .463 against him in Tacoma last year.

So clearly, he was able to improve the deception on the change-up last night. It's either that or he's willing to use it a lot more. Ryan's pitchfx data show something interesting - he got swinging strikes (the type most likely to stay consistent from year to year) on 13.6% of his change-ups last year, and gave up a home run on only 1 of 206 pitches thrown. His fastball induced swinging strikes only 3.5% of the time, and he gave up 4 HRs in 352 pitches. He was in the strike zone about the same with both pitches - he threw called balls on roughly 34-35% of both FBs and Changes.

From these data, and from his experience giving up 9HRs in less than 50 IP, I'd say Ryan may be learning to trust his change-up a lot more, and to avoid giving the hitter a hitter's pitch even in 2-0, 3-1 counts. His FB isn't good enough to blow by people, and if he wants to be successful, he's going to have to use the change-up a ton, and he's going to have to put the FB on the corners. Sure, this is true for every pitcher. But Feierabend's start last night showed that he doesn't have to be a 2 BB/9IP pitcher to succeed; that approach may actually PREVENT him from succeeding. This isn't a case where he wasn't mixing his pitches before - he was. But the Cha Seung Baek path to (FIP) success isn't going to work here, so he's got to make a change (ha!). So far, so good.

The hitting star was Yung-Chi Chen, who put a charge into a Greg Smith pitch and pulled a double pretty high off the wall in left center. He also had a single and a successful-if-uneventful night in the field. I'm pulling for the guy. Nice photo of him in the Tribune's photo slide show here, and stay tuned here or at Prospect Insider for photos from last night - Positive Paul got some great shots.

Matt Tuiasosopo apparently looked great in BP, but looked absolutely lost in his first AAA AB (a strikeout). He came back with a couple of better ABs, but still looked a bit overmatched. I'm sure there was a lot of pressure on him as his parents and numerous siblings were in attendance - gotta be nice to play in Washington again for the first time since he was at Everett.

I'm baffled...

I'm not nearly as smart as a lot of people in regards to baseball stats, but this statement of opinion from a local beat reporter (who I actually have a ton of respect for) always always always grates on me:

So, no sympathy vote for Santana. He'll have to raise his win total substantially...to have a legit Cy Young shot.

I mean, yeah, Cy Young voters look at win totals and all, but still, I'll never be able to figure out how a pitcher can substantially raise his win totals. Unless that pitcher hits like Albert Pujols, and manages, too, so that he can put himself into games where he's facing Jake Woods as opposed to Jake Peavy, the pitcher has absolutely no control over his win/loss total. Not even the ace-est of aces pitches very many shutouts these days, and a pitcher is considered pretty much HOF material if he only surrenders 1-2 runs in 6-7 innings every game. In the AL especially, pitchers have absolutely no control over the number of runs their offenses score. None. Zip. Nil. Nada. So, even if a pitcher throws 245 innings (35 starts at 7 innings a piece over an entire season) and has an ERA of 1.28 (1 run/game), he'd still have to have his team score over two runs a game for 57% of those games to reach twenty. Behind a VERY streaky, inconsistent offense (as the M's have shown all year), that can be a daunting task. Conversely, too, a pitcher who gives up 5 runs in 5-6 innings consistently can also win 20+ games if he's got an offense that scores 6 runs in those games.

I'm using extremes to make a point, sure. But it's still clear in my mind that a pitcher has very very, very, very little, if any at all, control over his win/loss record. Yeah, generally, a bad pitcher will pile up the losses, and a good pitcher will pile up the wins. But you can't tell if a pitcher's bad or good by those piles...

Save #2!!!

While I was away from the TV yesterday, mostly, watching Joey's final track meet of the season, I was able to 'watch' the game on my cell phone, thanks to the WEP version of GameCast. I was somewhat surprised that Mac left George in for the 9th, when the M's tacked on two more runs in the top of the inning and closed the door on a save opportunity for JJ. I knew that GS52 would've been eligible for the save had he been left in during the 9th, and I was both shocked and happy that it happened.

It was his longest outing since April 18th. Three K's and one walk (and on the GameCast on my cell phone, the AB with the walk was very questionable -- there appeared to be at least one strike that was called a ball, based on the graphic GameCast K zone. I'll have to go back to the game thread reactions to see if anyone commented on that pitch. It wouldn't surprise me to hear from Sid on this issue. Heh.

But whether or not it was a "vultured" save, I'll take it, and congratulate George on his second career save. I know there are more meaningful stats, sabermetrically, but saves mean a lot for player contracts, so huzzah!

What a fine season this lefty's having!

Yes, Pitching help is needed. But...

Yes, we need pitching. We need help in the rotation, especially, and perhaps one more good arm in the 'pen. We need a pitcher that can pitch deeper into ball games. Ultimately, though, is going out and surrendering prospects the only way to upgrade our pitching?

Not necessarily.

The difference between good pitching and bad pitching, ultimately, is run prevention. Good pitchers, in combination with good defenses, can increase run prevention. Mediocre pitchers can be helped out by having extraordinary defenses behind them. Upgrading the defense can at least slightly increase the overall run prevention side of the win/loss equation (that being that you have to score more runs than you surrender to win ball games).


While defensive metrics are still not scientifically relevent yet, they're not completely useless either. Upgrading a notably bad, both statistically and scouting-wise, outfielder with one that is better can help the run prevention, and help the pitching.

As long as the difference between the bat that's added and the bat that's replaced is minimal, and the impact on the more-scientifically sound run scoring side of the equation is neutral, at worst, the improvement on defense can make the overall team better. Having a good defense that's less likely to have miscues that extend innings and prevent pitchers from going deeper into games can improve a team's chances of winning. With the extra bonus, too, of possibly allowing pitchers to pitch deeper into ball games.

While I recognize that this idea may be thinking outside of the box a bit for the Mariners, I'd bet that they're at least aware of the principles outlined here. Now, I'm not expecting a change, but I would like to imagine that moving a clearly-ready-for-the-majors Adam Jones into left field, defensively-challenged Raul Ibanez to the DH, and Jose Vidro to the first-bat-off-the-bench would actually help the pitching staff, and may slightly improve the offense.

I realize there are several potential problems with this. It takes out one 'lefty' bat in Vidro, where this team doesn't need to surrender lefty bats. Raul Ibanez also is more comfortable when he's playing the field, and the potential discomfort he may have could affect his hitting. Jones also isn't a natural outfielder, even if he's a heck of an athlete, and while he has learned CF remarkably well, there's always a risk of seeing how well he'd transfer to LF.

I don't see those things as major risks, though. They're very small, really, and I'd actually have Vidro in at DH vs. lefty pitching, and I think he could still get regular playing time. Plus, the type of hitter Vidro is (singles hitter, keeps the ball on the ground, rarely gets XBHs or flyouts) can kill a lot of rallies when he GIDPs. Jones has much more power, and while his batting average may not reach .290 in the bigs right away, there's much, much more to offensive numbers than batting average. I'd be willing to bet that Jones could put up an OPS higher than Vidro's .710, especially when given consistent playing time. And, I'd be willing to be that the pitching numbers would noticably improve, too.

And, you don't have to make a trade to get him in there. Perhaps it's at the cost of Ellison. Nothing against Jason, of course, but I like Adam better. While Ellison actually would be a defensive upgrade, I doubt his bat is any better than Vidro's. And, no way is it better than Jones's...

Atta Boy, George!

Man. What a game.

I can't believe the Mariners, and their decimated bullpen, pulled out that victory. It's about time they cashed in on the expensive payments on players who were brought in to develop team chemistry. It's really nice to have exciting baseball again with the Mariners. This team may not be as good as they have been as of late, but this team isn't boring like they have been the last few years...

While Davis, O'Flaherty and Putz all did their jobs, the pitching hero definitely was our guy George. Coming in to relieve Morrow, with the bases loaded and only 1 out -- any sort of decent contact and the Cubs score a run. Top of the 9th with a lead, the Cubs probably would've won. Davis, EOF, and Putz wouldn't've gotten the chance to do what they did. And Willie wouldn't've gotten his gritty RBI (no thanks to Vidro who, when he finally made up his mind what he was doing, lucked into the run when Barrett dropped the ball).

I don't want to take away from what O'Flaherty did tonight. He pitched incredibly well, and deserves a ton of kudos, too. But if GS52 doesn't do his job in the 8th, the M's don't make it to extras.

Big High-5, George! And a big high-5 to the team for making it a team effort and a team win tonight.

Refuse to Lose is BACK!

Uh, Felix, it's 2007...

So, I'm really starting to get tired of Felix being crowned king already. Yeah, he's got great stuff. He's got excellent pitches -- the best I've ever seen, too. Problem is -- he seems to have issues knowing what to throw when. It seems like the hitters are ignoring his good stuff, and just sitting on his fastball, knowing that he's going to give it to them -- up in the zone, just where they want to see it.

Although I didn't watch the game yesterday, I saw the highlights. And, I heard enough of Bill Krueger to know that Bill was way off base. No, Felix doesn't need to lay off of his breaking stuff. He needs to establish his curve, his slider, and his 2-seamer. He needs to throw those for strikes. It sounds like the defense was sort of an issue yesterday, as Ellison was a little rusty in CF, and Lopez had issues turning the DP. Still, Felix wasn't getting people to swing and miss, which is vitally important to how he pitches. He was being hit hard -- and in the post-game interview (in English, admirably), he even admitted that he was struggling mightily with his command.

I'm still wondering if it's pitch selection he's struggling with. And, he really needs to recall the first two games from his mental memory bank. That could make the difference between the M's staying in the hunt (either for the Wild Card or the Division) and falling back down into the cellar. Or, is he really healthy? His last few performances may suggest otherwise. He's definitely not the Felix I saw in the first two games of the season.

He's got the potential, and he's still very young. Still, if he's as other-worldly as people believe he is, it's time he starts showing it. I'm very tired of seeing the Felix of 2006. This is 2007, and he was off to such a great start...