Monday, November 06, 2006

Dice-less Roster Version 1.0

Okay. I get it. It can't be just a smokescreen anymore. The M's are not going to employ the services of one Daisuke Matsuzaka. I was actually going to proceed with this assuming that the M's were going to lose out on the sweepstakes. Because, yeah, well, there's always that possibility.

So, looking at my last post, I figured the 2007 M's definitely need two starting pitchers, a backup catcher, and could possibly tweak the roster a bit to improve their offense. Here's my first draft of the 2007 M's that is both possible (i.e. the M's might look at these guys) and realistic (i.e. not going above and beyond the 90 or so million they're likely to budget. Contract figures from this site here.

1) Richie Sexson (1B): Third year of 4-year $50 million contract. Due $14 million in '07
2) Adrian Beltre (3B): Third year of 5-year, $64 million contract. Due $11.5 million in '07
3) Ichiro Suzuki (CF): Final year of 4-year, $44 million contract. Due $11 million in '07
4) Jarrod Washburn (SP): Second year of 4-year, $37.5 million contract. Due $9.5 million in '07.
5) Kenji Johjima (C): Second year of 3-year, $16.5 million contract. Due $5.2 million in '07
6) Raul Ibanez (DH/LF): First year of 2-year, $11 million contract. Due $5.5 million in '07
7) Willie Bloomquist (UTIL): Second year of 2-year $1.25 million contract. Due $.85 million in '07
8) Yuniesky Betancourt (SS): Second year of 4 year, $2.826 million contract. Due $.4 million in '07
9) Jose Lopez (2B): Team-controlled pre-arbitration contract. Figure $.375 million

XX) DFA/Trade Julio Mateo & pay contract: Due $1 million in '07

So far: $59.325 million. I've probably got the math wrong, so let's round up to $60 million. That's a whole lot of money for 9 players (10, if you include the price of Mateo).

Here's where it goes up.

10) Greg Maddux (SP): 2 years, $19 million (2007, $9.5 million, 2008 team option for $9.5 million, with a $1 million buyout). Okay, I know he's not a huge periphs guy (i.e. High K/9, etc...). Still, even at 41, he'd have a reasonable shot of translating his success to the AL. Likely would be better than Jamie Moyer, since he's more of a groundballer. I'm fairly certain he wants to retire in the NL, so this isn't necessarily likely, but you just never know. I like the thought of Maddux over Schmidt, mostly because of the length of contract.

11) J.J. Putz (CL): Arbitration buyout: 3 years, $12 million. Not sure 'bout this, but this is what I'm thinking. $3 million in 2007, $3.5 million in 2008 and $4.5 million in 2009. Not sure if that's a good idea, but Bavasi doesn't take players to arbitration.

That's $12.5 million to the pot, bringing us to $62.5 million. Oh, wait. I also need to add the guys under team control:

12) Felix Hernandez ~$.4 million
13) George Sherrill ~$.4 million
14) Cha Baek ~$.4 million
15) Chris Snelling ~$.4 million
16) Mike Morse ~$.4 million

So, that adds another $2 million, bringing things up to $64.5 million. Let's look at the roster, then:

1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
CF: Ichiro
LF: ? + Ibanez
RF: ? + Snelling
C: Kenji Johjima
DH: Ibanez + ?

SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Cha Seung Baek

RP: George Sherrill
CL: JJ Putz

UTIL: Willie Bloomquist
UTIL: Mike Morse

So, 16 players and $64.5 million in salary. Still need 1 SP, 1 backup catcher, 1 corner outfielder (preferrably RH) and either 4 RPs and 2 bench bats, or 3 RPs and 3 bench bats. With roughly $20 million to spend. Let's keep going, then.

17) RHRP Scott Williamson. 1 year, $750K. Hargrove needs a veteran in the 'pen. Not a great addition, but might be a useful arm. Horrid walk rate, but high K/9 and neutral GB%. Seems to keep the ball in the park.

18) RHRP Jon Huber. Team control ~$.4 million

19) LHRP Eric O'Flaherty. Team control ~$.4 million. Since Hargrove gets his veteran, I get two yutes for the 'pen.

20) DH/1B/LF: Eduardo Perez. Decline option ($2 million?) and offer $.5 million (with $100K buyout totals $.6 million. Great bench bat and awesome clubhouse presence. Rather him than Dobbs.

21) OF Jose Cruz Jr. 1 year, $1 million. Why not. Both Dave and Jason have added him into their plans. He's a "switch hitting" corner OF who would be great off the bench and to add depth.

Total now: $67.65 million, with one more SP needed, and a backup catcher, and two spots for either 2 RPs or 2 bench bats, or one of each. Still have $18-20 million or so to spend...

22) C Greg Zaun. 1 year, $1 million. Might return to Toronto. But if he doesn't, he's my top target. Due for a raise??? My second choice, though, would be Robert Fick for 1 year $600K -- if only so the Fick Fanimutation could still be kept alive.

Lineup
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
CF: Ichiro
LF: ? + Ibanez
RF: ? + Snelling
C: Kenji Johjima
DH: Ibanez + ?

Rotation
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Cha Seung Baek

Pen
RP: Scott Williamson
RP: Jon Huber
RP: Eric O'Flaherty
RP: George Sherrill
CL: JJ Putz

Bench
UTIL: Willie Bloomquist
UTIL: Mike Morse
C: Greg Zaun/Robert Fick
1b/DH/LF: Eduardo Perez
OF: Jose Cruz

Okay, so I need another RP. Or, at least Hargrove does. I'd prefer another bench bat, but since it'd likely end up being Dobbs, I'm flippant as to who gets the nod in the 'pen. I still see Soriano as trade bait, even with Lowe's career-threatening injury. With still nearly $20 million to spend, that leaves some options for the last two spots on my 25-man roster.

I'd agree that Manny Ramirez would be the best fit. But, since Dave's even hinted that Bavasi wouldn't go for it, I'm not going to trade for him. Bonds is out of the question, too, for similar reasons.

Here's where I go out on a limb.

24) SP: Gil Meche. 3 years, $21 million. 2007: $6.5 million; 2008: team option: $7 million; 2009: team option: $7.5 million. Probably throw some mutual option in there, too, if that's what it takes to keep him (sorta like Eddie's contract with the M's). I'm a bit gun shy because of Pineiro's 2006 contract. But I believe Meche will be a solid, league-average pitcher for the length of that contract.

And finally:

25) Alfonso Soriano: OF 5 years, $65 million ($12 million in 2007-2010 and a $5 million signing bonus -- not paid in 2007) Option for $12 million in 2011 ($3 million buyout) . Absolutely crazy, I know. No way he performs up to that deal. Honestly, though, if the M's are going to add a potential albatross contract, I'd rather it be on a hitter than on a pitcher like Schmidt or Zito. Probably not a good fit, but the M's don't need an all-LH outfield.

Here's, then, my 2007 M's 25-man roster. All $87 million worth (unless my math is off).

Lineup
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
CF: Ichiro
LF: Alfonso Soriano
RF: Chris Snelling
C: Kenji Johjima
DH: Raul Ibanez

Rotation
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Gil Meche
SP: Cha Seung Baek

Pen
RP: Scott Williamson
RP: Jon Huber
RP: Eric O'Flaherty
RP: George Sherrill
CL: JJ Putz

Bench
UTIL: Willie Bloomquist
UTIL: Mike Morse
C: Greg Zaun/Robert Fick
1b/DH/LF: Eduardo Perez
OF: Jose Cruz

Plenty of options for defensive arrangement. Probably need a true lefty bat on the bench, though. That's where my 23rd slot is flexible. Perhaps you sign both Robert Fick and Greg Zaun. Either another 'pen arm, or a lefty bat off the bench. That's Hargrove's choice. Maybe you keep Broussard, and stretch the budget to $90-95 million.

Trade Bait
Julio Mateo
Ben Broussard
Jeremy Reed
Rafael Soriano

The M's badly need to restock their system. They need some starting pitching depth. They need some power depth. The guys in the trade bait list should help bring back some younger talent.

Other Options:
SP: Orlando Hernandez
SP: Andy Pettite (probably will retire)
SP: Ted Lilly (not much better than Meche, and will definitely be waaaay overpaid)
SP: Jason Schmidt (rather him than Zito)

I'm just glad I'm not in Bavasi's shoes. It's a tough, tough offseason to be shopping.

5 Comments:

At 11/07/2006 5:00 AM, Blogger Jason said...

I like the work you've put into this, Paul, but I believe that your running totals got away from you right about Maddux...you lost $10M from your totals there, which means that by the end, we're spending $97M. (Fine by me, but it's not my cash.)

One thing that stands out to me here is that we're doomed (DOOMED) to have a crap pitching staff in '07, pretty much no matter what. A big bat upgrade like Soriano will help improve the team, but very few possible outcomes from this offseason can result in decent pitching for the M's.

Ggguh.

 
At 11/07/2006 8:29 AM, Blogger KingCorran said...

I don't see Soriano coming that cheaply. I also really don't like taking the end of '06 rotation (pre-Woods), replacing Moyer with Maddux, and calling it an offseason.

Some very good thoughts here, however... I wouldn't be surprised if this was pretty close to what actually happened, with a different contract for Soriano (or a different player at around those numbers).

 
At 11/07/2006 9:28 AM, Blogger PositivePaul said...

Doh! Doh! DOHHH!

Indeed, I'm $10 million off.

Going to have to scrap this, and try again.

It does, however, basically shape how I believe the M's would like to disappoint us fans, even if the players aren't exactly the same.

 
At 11/09/2006 11:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

mike said.. Paul all you have to do is replace Soriano with Carl Crawford(savings)(via trade w/Rays) for your trade bait: Reed, Mateo and Soriano. Sign Schmidt(4x12M) instead of Maddux and replace Meche(not again please), with Vincent Padilla (same price, 3x7M). The rest you have are great! I did not add these up to make Annual Payroll but.. these guys are just as good (and younger) and probably cheaper. The value of each to the Mariners chemistry should be priceless however.

 
At 11/12/2006 5:20 PM, Blogger Snave said...

Whoa, that's some good thinking you have put into it, Paul!

My thoughts are they will indeed sign Schmidt and thus they will overpay dearly for a guy who might have a couple of good years left but maybe won't be worth much, about three years into a four or five year deal. I hope they won't go that route, but I think they will.

Then, I'm guessing they will sign a pitcher, maybe a couple of them, who have been injured, not for a lot of money, in hopes that he will (or they will) be on the mend and will do well: Randy Wolf, Mark Mulder, Adam Eaton, Kerry Wood, Tony Armas Jr.? And after that guy doesn't (or those guys don't) really work out, they'll fall back on Baek, Woods, etc.

So I guess the rotation might look like

Schmidt
Eaton
Felix
Washburn
Baek, Woods, or another guy like Eaton

I would also like to see a good backup catcher. Zaun would be great to have on the ballclub. I also think we need a solid right fielder, but I think the M's would have to go the trade route (unless they something I don't see in the lists of available free agents...) I would be using the same guys as you listed for trade bait.

It will be interesting... I think getting A.Soriano would be very, very cool. I would think if they signed Schmidt they wouldn't have money enough to sign A.Soriano.

 

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