Thursday, May 10, 2007


No, that's not the M's winning percentage. Nor is it Willie Bloomquist's OPS (his BA+SLG+OBP isn't even that high, let alone his OPS). That's what batters are hitting off of Jeff Weaver. Some may argue that it's just luck -- the bad kind -- that Jeff's just been unlucky. I say he's been pounded, and it's going to continue.

It's not like Sexson's poor batting average. Sexson is hitting the ball hard, he's just hitting it right at people, or the defense just makes an outstanding play. Weaver, on the other hand, is being blasted. Hitters are taking good swings at bad pitches. His breaking stuff isn't breaking away from where the hitters expect it. They see the ball and they hit the ball, and it's likely it's hit hard.

They say that a high BABIP is one way to determine if a pitcher is "lucky" or "unlucky" -- that if a pitcher has a high one, going forward it's likely to even out, and his results should improve. And, conversely, if a pitcher is having abnormally positive results, and his BABIP is low, he'll work his way back to normal. This also assumes that the pitcher has major-league quality skills.

Does anyone believe Jeff Weaver has major-league quality skills? I'd bet that Jeff himself doesn't.

I hate to rag on Jeff, I really do -- especially since I was advocating that the M's sign him in the 2005-6 offseason (for 4 years $32 million, even!). But this team is still in the race, and has a decent amount of offense to carry a less-than-strong pitching staff. But it's very clear they can't start games behind 4-0, 6-0, 5-0 in the first. That sucks the wind out of everyone.

And, losing fans = losing money. They've already committed the funds to Jeff. A suitable replacement shouldn't cost more than an additional $500K (if you believe in the concept of freely available talent).

I think you mean Thompson...

Edit: 11:30 A.M. 5/11/07. USSM is reporting a couple of roster moves are about to happen. One of them is presumably Weaver. Best of luck, Jeff, pulling it together. I thought you'd fit in here, and pitch pretty decently. Now that you've shown us you can't, best of luck to ya!


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