Friday, September 16, 2005

What to Do, What to Do (Part 1)!?!?!?!??!??

Okay, so the 2005 M's are officially losers, and I now officially owe my coworker 10 bucks1. So, with that in mind, and with 16 games left, it's time to get a head start on the Hot Stove League.

I'm opening up the discussion, then, on what to do for next season. I want to first look at what we know we'll have, and what can be expected from them, before we look at what we need and where to find it.

The following list is what we have already have5, and the likelihood each player in every category will remain with the team in 2006, and start the season on the 25-man roster. It does not include guys who are currently injured and may join the team later in the season (even if that means a few weeks later)2.

Offense



Most definitely on the team next year (90-95% probability)
The other 5% -- knock on wood, stroke a lucky rabbit's foot, avoid ladders & black cats -- leaves the door open for unmentionable stuff that could happen between now and the start of next season, and because nothing is for certain in baseball. Other than that, though, these guys are definitely guaranteed roster spots, and there's virtually no chance these guys are traded.

1) Ichiro, RF
2) Sexson, 1B

Most likely on the team (75-90% probability)
Guys that aren't sure locks for a roster spot, but could be traded (however unlikely it is), non-tendered, or otherwise. It's highly unlikely they'll be traded, non-tendered, or otherwise, mind you, but it's certainly not totally unreasonable to believe there's a chance. Of course, the extra 5% from above applies here (and in all of the subsequent categories).

3) Torrealba, C
4) Adrian Beltre, 3B
5) Raul Ibanez, LF/DH
6) Jeremy Reed, CF
7) Jose Lopez, 2B
8) Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

More likely than not, they're on the team (50-75%)
These guys would be hard to get rid of: either they have a guaranteed contract, or they may have strong advocates somewhere in the front office. Doesn't mean they should be with the team, mind you, but it's more likely than not that they will.

9) Willie Bloomquist, UTIL
10) Mike Morse, LF/DH
11) Miguel Ojeda, C

Possibly on the team, depending on other moves (Below 50%)
Guys that haven't shown much, but could fill in the bench, and have strong advocates in the front office. In other words, it's not completely certain they're gone.

12) Greg Dobbs, UTIL

Pitching



Most definitely on the team
1) Felix, SP

Most likely on the team
2) Eddie Guardado, CL
3) Jamie Moyer, SP
4) Joel Pineiro, SP
5) George Sherrill, RP
6) JJ Putz, RP
7) Julio Mateo, RP

More likely than not on the team
8) Rafael Soriano, RP
9) Scott Atchison, RP
10) Jeff Harris, Long RP
11) Gil Meche, SP

Possibly on the team
11) Matt Thornton, RP
12) Ryan Franklin, SP, Long RP

Summary


Only three guys are totally inked in for next season: Ichiro, Sexson, and King Felix. These are the only three that I would bet my house on3 starting the season next year with Seattle, and feel confident in making that bet (praying, of course, against major injury, which is always a factor for everyone).

Including all the "Definitelys" and "Most Likelys,"4 there are 15 roster spots that are either locked in, or most likely locked in. That really leaves about 10 roster spots open for serious discussion.

NEXT POST:

What numbers I expect out of these guys.



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Notes:

1. I bet him back in May that the M's offense would pick up, and carry the team to .500; I obviously was wrong. I guess it's safe to say that Ichiro's quest for .400 this year isn't happening either...

2. I'm really not sure what to do about Bobby Madritsch and Bucky Jacobsen. Both of them, if truly healthy, would be sure-fire locks for "More Likely than Not" with the team. But since of them are nursing major owies, I cannot see them in any of these lists. Madritsch moreso than Bucky, but still, it's realistic to believe that neither of them are healthy enough to start the season in Seattle.

3. I'm not betting my house on ANYTHING! I'm just giving an example of my confidence.

4. Apostrophe-"s" ( 's ) is never plural. In this case, I'm making an exception to the Plural y => 'ies' generality in English spelling. Sorry. One of my biggest pet peeves is using 's to denote plurality.

5. I know, I know. Footnote 2 comes after footnote 1, not footnote 5. I thought of another note to add here, and I didn't want to take the hard task of changing numbers on all the footnotes in this post in the HTML text entry box in Blogger. I may fix this eventually, but for now, deal with it!. Oh, yeah. The note. This list comes from the current 40-man roster, including those who are on the 25-man team now who wouldn't necessarily be there if it weren't for September callups.

6 Comments:

At 9/16/2005 2:16 PM, Blogger Jake R. said...

I wouldn't be so sure about Morse returning-the steroid thing was embarassing and its clear that his defense sucks, plus he has almost no power. I think he's likely to be involved in any trade the M's make. Ojeda could be supplanted by Wiki too, so he may be in Tacoma. Franklin is almost definitely out, Pineiro and Meche are gone too if any team will take them.
I sure as hell hope Thornton's spot is taken by Sherril/Atchison/Soriano.
Bucky and B-Mads are the wild cards, will they be healthy? If they are, they'll probably be on the roster.

 
At 9/19/2005 1:56 PM, Blogger Citizen K said...

So have they taken out Texas yet? Just curious...

 
At 9/19/2005 2:06 PM, Blogger PositivePaul said...

Put your nose in a boxscore, CK!

We're now double-digits behind even 3rd place Texas. I gave up the whole "Take Out Texas" thing a few weeks ago. After they took the series from us.

 
At 9/20/2005 9:06 AM, Blogger Citizen K said...

Should'a used the /sarcasm tag...

I wrote that post just after looking at the current standings, featuring a now .500 Texas and a Seattle team at -20. Wow...

What's that old baseball cliché--"Hernandez and, umm, Felix and pray for a miracle"? It's oddly appropriate in the case of the 2006 M's, I'm afraid. ;-)

 
At 9/21/2005 4:19 PM, Anonymous elsid said...

There will be changes, some from a good perspective, some from a bad perspecitve. It will all depend.

Bucky, Morse, Franklin, and Meche/Piniero are more than likely gone. Reed, Lopez, Meche/Piniero, and a few others could possibly be gone. Thornton, unfortunately, has somehow shown enough "improvement" to get another shot -- with a nod -- being left handed.

 
At 9/24/2005 1:50 PM, Blogger Nate said...

I don't see how Torreabla and Adrian Beltre are on the same list. Beltre's about as much of a lock to be on the roster as Sexson. Sexson may be a little bit less of a disappointment, but both contracts are too big for any team trade for them.

Guys I would put in the "spare parts" category would be both catchers, Morse, Bloomquist, Dobbs, Franklin, Meche, Harris. Unlikely that they'd fetch much in a trade, but there's also very little reason to keep any one of them.

Ibanez and any of our relievers might fetch more in a trade, and I see them as being the most likely candidates.

I don't think trading Pineiro or Reed would be smart, because they both have lowered their value this year. In my mind, both still have a lot of potential to improve, especially Reed, so to give them away now would be foolish. I'd rather see them play next year for the M's even if it means letting them go for nothing or next to nothing a year from now. In other words, I rather let them go later knowing that they aren't good than giving them away now and NOT knowing how good or bad they'll be.

 

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