Mariners Morsels - aka "Free Adam Moore and Rich Poythress! (George Sherrill is FREE!)"

Just Do It, Jack!

2011-12-09T16:33:00.000-08:00

The two biggest obstacles in front of the Mariners' hopes of contention both got massively huge TV contracts, affording them some room to add massive salaries when needed. Anaheim has started spending that cash, and Texas will too.

Not only was the Pujols signing a massive shot across the bow of the good ship Mariner (subtle entendre intended ;-) it was also simultaneously a blow across the even larger U.S.S. Texas Ranger. Add the addition-by-subtraction move for CJ Wilson for the LALAs (I refuse to call them anything else) over the Rangers, and that makes the Rangers all the more attentive and ready to pounce.

It may seem logical that Texas in their lack of pitching would be all-in on Darvish -- and with all the posturing, etc., that goes on this time of year, it's hard to use anything but logic to determine what the other teams will do. But several people have considered Texas the dark horse candidate in on Fielder.

That could be the nail in the coffin for the Mariners hopes of contention in the next 4-5 years. IMHO, THAT is the move that forces us to auction off Felix to the highest bidder, and leaves the Mariners to collapse the direction of the Cleveland Indians. Not only would that move subtract a potential massive, quick improvement for the Mariners, it would be compounded by adding more of a challenge to the M's directly in the division.

With the starting pitching market being extremely soft, and really Darvish being the only potential high-upside pitcher that Texas might acquire (especially now with both Buehrle and Wilson off the market), and the extreme cost of GOOD starting pitching via trade (though Texas does have a very solid farm system), I can see Texas passing on pitching right now and going cheap on it -- overloading an already high-powered offense by adding Fielder.

Now, you could argue that they don't have room for Prince, but I'd say that none of Napoli, Morrison or Young are really elite enough for Texas to be too concerned about 'blocking' them. There really are only 4 teams that don't have room for Fielder: Yankees, Philly, Boston and now the LALAs. Pretty much every other team has room for Fielder.

Certainly there's a metric ton of risk signing Fielder to a Bora$$$$$$ contract (a la T-Rex as an example). But the M's are in as good of shape to absorb that risk long-term as any team in the league, considering the system, team needs, future payroll committments, etc.

Just do it, Jack. A HUGE part of me would like to see Zduriencik give the Seattle-area saberdudes a big middle finger and throw a T-Rex type contract at Fielder. It's probably what it would take to get it done here in Seattle. Texas may only be willing to go 6 years max, considering the future payroll committments they'll have soon (with the players who will be FA eligible in the next few years), as will other teams I'm sure. Given a market of 6/$150 give or take 20 million and/or a 7th year, there would I'm sure be 4-5 teams interested - even if Seattle were one of those teams, I'd be highly skeptical if he chose Seattle over one of those other teams, especially if one of them is Texas.

The price of not landing Fielder may be much, much greater than the potential albatross in the later years of the deal...

The Voice of the Mariners is Silenced

2010-11-10T18:47:00.000-08:00

Dave Niehaus (1935-2010)

Goodbye Junior!

2010-06-02T23:45:00.000-07:00

Today, Ken Griffey Junior retired from baseball. It was clear his skills had far diminished below his desire and as Jerry Brewer puts it, the last thing to be conquered was Griffey's joy.

Some people will blame Larry LaRue's article. There's some logic in that - and it's unfortunate that the article burned a pretty big bridge between LaRue and Junior since LaRue was pretty much saying what no one else had the guts to say in the media (although the issue of controversy and bridge-burning lay more in the fact that LaRue brought to light Griffey's somewhat behind-the-scenes but not unknown habit of sleeping in the clubhouse during games).

The smug complainers got their wish. Junior is no longer a problem on the M's roster anymore. Now they can shift their attention elsewhere and find a target for mean hatred. As I mentioned in my previous post, while I admit Junior was definitely a problem on the team his presence was far less of a problem than other more massive problems. Now we'll get to find out, I guess, if those cynics were correct.

But, then again, the fact that Lopez and Figgins are finally starting to hit helps a hell of a lot more than Griffey's departure from the team that brought him from the cradle of his pro career to its grave.

This is a dark, dark day in Marinerdom.

On Hyphen and Griffey...

2010-05-19T13:27:00.000-07:00

Hyphen.
So it appears Hyphen & Snell are pretty much going to swap roles. I think we've seen enough of Snell to know that he's not going to do much better than Hyphen. I'm with Jason - replace Snell with either French or Olson. Just do SOMETHING! It took two RRS turns in the rotation too many to do the right thing. I'm probably Hyphen's biggest fanboy on the planet (I dubbed him "Hyphen" ya know...) but even I recognize that he's killing this team in the rotation.

There's patience and then there's insanity. I expected this from a Bavasi-built club (and a Mclaren/Hargrove-managed club), not from what Wak & Zduriencik showed last year. I don't know why they seem to be much slower with the trigger this year compared to last. I remember specifically Wak talking about having 162 different lineups last year, yet this year the same crappy hitters are there...

Griffey.

I'm kinda with Edman here. Griffey's an easy target because (as the arguments state) he's too old and past his prime to be likely to improve. But he's hardly the biggest problem. Cutting him does NOT improve this team much if at all.

Let's not forget that his role on the team was SUPPOSED to be as a pinch-hitter, very-part-time DH, when he was initially signed. Even he admitted that was likely his role on the team. But due to failings from others -- failings from Zduriencik to really find a full-time LF'er (even though he took several reasonable risks to attempt to do so), and initial failing from Saunders to take the job out of ST. That forced Milton Bradley into LF much more than he should've been, and away from DH, which is a role he's ideally suited for on this team.

But, hey - Milton melted down himself, and Jack's backup plan for him was the Griffey-Sweeney platoon. How many games did Sweeney get in the first month? Not very many - 9 games, 6 starts & 28 PAs. Yes, Sweeney's got health issues. He's unreliable (as the last few games on the bench with back issues have shown). You can argue all you want about having TWO bench spots taken up with DH's and I'll probably agree that it's less-than-smart.

If Milton hadn't melted down, and if Saunders or Byrnes or Langerhans had stepped up enough to show that they could handle left field full time, Griffey wouldn't be the starting DH. That he HAS been isn't so much a reflection on Griffey as it is on Wakamatsu and Zduriencik.

Griffey's about halfway down on my list of the M's problems and the reasons why this team is so frustrating to watch, and why they're losing so many close games. When HALF OF THE FREAKING LINEUP is batting UNDER the Mendoza line, that's a huuuuge problem.

Yes, the M's need to find a starting DH. They can cut Griffey and/or Sweeney to do so. But even if they can talk Griffey into mid-season retirement, is there an easily-gettable replacement for him? Who knows -- actually Milton Bradley probably will be the starting DH once he gets his stuff together since Saunders seems to be finding himself finally capable of starting in LF for the Mariners.

But the bigger problem is -- the M's lineup needs to effing hit the baseball. And the bullpen needs to stop melting down. And Wakamatsu needs to manage better. And Zduriencik needs to improve the roster.

My comment to Larry Stone on the Felix situation

2009-11-18T13:06:00.000-08:00

Posted in response to this article...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Glad to see you fixed this to reflect Shannon as a 710/ESPN employee. I'm one of the people still pissed at how KOMO booted her out (and sooooo thankful her fans' lobbying efforts were rewarded when she was hired on at KIRO :-)

I really hope being the runner-up in this year's Cy Young Award contest really opens a lot of non-Internet-blog-savvy M's fan's eyes to how awesome he truly is. It's no secret that I'm one of the loudest "don't give him his crown yet" skeptics in the blogs, and it's certainly not because I'm a "Negative Ned..." But I'll still give Felix the credit he deserves for being absolutely amazing this season.

I'll give Felix his well-due credit, but I still don't think he's "arrived" yet. He's one big step closer, sure, but he's not quite yet in the same vein with the fans as "Griffey" "A-Rod" and "Randy" as Larry associates in the article. Certainly I understand the comparison - young, budding world-class superstar very close to free agency (and very close to earning the monster top-tier free agent contract).

But I just don't think Felix has achieved their level of superstardom yet. I believe he will, definitely, don't get me wrong, but I'm just saying he's a notch or two below those guys, relative to where they were when the same dilemma was forced upon the M's with those three.

For one - people don't pay to go see Felix. Or at least the attendance spike isn't noticeable yet. Certainly you hear about it and we talk about upcoming "Felix Day" on the Internet, but a lot of Internet M's fans either already have season tickets or live out of the area where it's inconvenient (at best -- if not downright impossible) to get to a game spur-of-the-moment. People knew when Randy was pitching. They'd stop what they're doing and make their plans around his pitching schedule. I haven't quite seen this (outside of the blogs of course) with Felix.

People are starting to talk about him more and more, certainly. Casual fans in the office, say, are starting to talk about him. But not QUITE to the same level as Ichiro or Griffey (or, heck, even Willie Bloomquist back when he was still a Mariner).

He's not a "living legend" in their minds yet. They're aware of the hype, generally, and they'll certainly talk about a good performance. But I don't think this is quite true:

"Now these same fans have given their heart to this regal Venezuelan fireballer, and they fret about his future in Seattle — rightfully so. For this is the winter that will almost certainly seal his future with the Mariners."

It's been talked about in the media more and more, so yes, casual fans are starting to pay attention. But I don't see Felix as having won the hearts of as many fans as young Griffey, A-Rod, and Randy all did. Certainly the niche "Vote for Felix" t-shirts are out there, and more and more people are buying Felix jerseys (another sign of player popularity). He's arriving, definitely, but he hasn't arrived like those other three had yet. Certainly those of us who pay attention to the M's on the Internet recognize him, but there are a whole heck of a lot of casual M's fans who pay at least a glancing pass of attention to the Mariners who don't hang out on the M's vast and deep Internet corners.

Maybe it's unfair - those others are upper-tier HOF talent (yes, even A-Roid) and the years they were playing within comparable situations to Felix that Larry mentions were much more prosperous days (95, 97 playoff years) whereas 04 and 08 were both franchise disasters (turning casual fans' attention away). Times are different, too. I'm just saying that I don't think Felix has quite been welcomed into M's fans hearts nearly as deeply and as widespread as those other three players.

And then there's this guy named Ichiro. And, well, Griffey. But, then, A-Rod, Randy and Griffey had each other, and Edgar and Buhner (and Dan Wilson's cute butt) to contend with.

I'm not saying that Felix isn't good and doesn't deserve to be locked up by the Mariners (I really really really want to keep him, in spite of inherent risks of giving long-term contracts to pitchers). I'm just contending that I don't think he's quite become the hometown hero/superstar that a lot of people think he has yet.

Hopefully he will while he's still here. But it might take some sort of post-season moment, or something über-epic (anyone remember Daisuke's first home game in Boston???) for him to be deeply entrenched into the hearts of ALL Mariners fans to the level that Griffey, A-Roid, and RJ were at when this dilemma came up in their situations.

Let's not forget Edgar, Ichiro and Buhner, too, though, as models of success in keeping the hometown hero home. Buhner was soooooooo close to leaving Seattle for Baltimore in his free agency year, but the M's were able to keep him. Edgar was the rare example of a HOF-level player staying with one team forever. Ichiro probably will go back to Japan and play or retire rather than play for another MLB team.

So there is hope. Not everyone is anxious to chase the highest dollar amount. Let's also not forget that Felix chose the Mariners over "MostMoney" before, when he signed his original contract (first link I could find was this one, but it's common knowledge: http://en.allexperts.com/e/f/f/f%C3%A9lix_hern%C3%A1ndez.htm).

Today's a New Day!

2009-10-16T15:53:00.000-07:00

(AP Photo borrowed from Larry Stone's article here)

Shit happens. Ya move on to a new day.

GO DODGERS! GO GEORGE!!!

Thank You, Junior!

2009-10-04T19:43:00.000-07:00

Adam Moore is FREEEEE!!!!!

2009-09-13T13:03:00.000-07:00

While I'm sad to have seen my last R's game of the season, I'm THRILLED that Adam Moore is getting his first taste of major league baseball. Even as his earliest fanboy, I acknowledge that he won't get much playing time and it's OK. But he'll get the chance to soak in some things and see what it takes to fight for a spot on next year's big league club.

Still - ADAM MOORE IS FREEEEE!!!!!

Mia Culpa to King Felix, Take 2

2009-07-10T00:46:00.001-07:00

When Felix cruised through June blasting through several weak lineups, I was happy, sure, but still very wary of giving him back his crown. I mentioned to a couple people -- these performances were great and all, but let's see him do it against Texas.

Tonight, he did it against Texas.

If Rob Johnson didn't have compromising photos of the official scorekeeper, and actually lived up to the defensive reputation bestowed upon him, King Felix would've been unscathed through 8 tonight -- with a rusty but still Josh Hamilton back in Texas's lineup. I didn't get to watch the game, but I've seen enough of the recap and this screen grab to know that he's well-deserving of my re-coronation of him tonight.

I'm sorry for ever calling you overrated, King Felix -- here's your crown back...

Now please keep it this time.

What the $@@gf WAS That???

2009-07-08T22:13:00.000-07:00

So I decided to watch the replay to see the 9th inning debacle with my own eyes (rather than relying upon the memory of the sketchy audio broadcast and Gameday). I'm writing this on my iPhone (yay it's nice to have a smartphone that actually WORKS with Blogger) to see if it can handle the photo uploads I want to share from stills taken on my iPhone camera. Nope - it won't let me uplad them here but I could send them to Flickr...

Anyway - Yes Aardsma imploded. And I just put down the iPhone so I could type and upload photos. But ultimately, Aardsma didn't get much help from his infield (including Johjima, and I think Cedeno probably was fine in the 9th with the glove).

First - how is this ball 4? I'm not even sure Gameday doesn't say it's at least on the black...

Oh, wait, I know! Because Kenji doesn't know how to frame pitches...

That 3-1 pitch gets called a strike, and things might look a little different.

Okay, so a few runners later, there was this gem:

Exhibit #593894-985 why the M's miss Adrian Beltre. AB makes that play in his sleep. Even though it was Adam Jones running...

Wipe away that runner, add an out, and the game looks a lot different.

Then a little later, THIS happened:

Lopez makes the first of two errors he's charged with (although the second one was probably a little unfair as I'll point out in a second) by not being able to pull the ball out of his glove. Of course, whether Adam Jones isn't there in the first place (thanks Woodward!), they would've at least gotten the runner out at first.

So wipe out Markakis, and possibly Jones. And give the M's 2 outs. This game looks a LOT different...

Heh. Brian Roberts' "Checked Swing" yeah right:

Honestly, in the top half of the 9th, I'd say EVERYONE except B'more imploded - the M's, the umps...

Even Branyan.

I would've charged him with the fielding error. Lopez one-hopped it, throwing high a little bit, but it bounced reasonably in front of Branyan, who should've made the play. MAYBE it handcuffed him a little on the hop:

What a meltdown!

POYTHRESS YESSSS!!!!!

2009-06-09T21:16:00.000-07:00

While I'm still catching up, I see that the M's drafted Rich Poythress at #51. Even if they didn't pick BPA at 27 and 33, the guys they got there have some useful talent, and if they're able to sign Poythress, this draft is a HUGE win for me. Huge!

Seriously, while we're likely going to regret not taking a shot at one of the pitchers that were available at 27 and 33, I still am mostly happy about this draft.

Draft Day, 2009

2009-06-09T09:05:00.000-07:00

Perhaps because of my friendship with Jason Churchill, I'd say this is the most informed I've ever been coming into a draft. To keep things in perspective, however, I'll definitely caveat that by saying I've still really got no clue. I have some opinions, and they're semi-informed, but my opinions aren't really worth much. Still, I'll take a few minutes and jot down my thoughts because I always like to look back years later to see what I was thinking and to provide context for future arguments that I know I'll have...

When building my opinion on players for the draft, I place a lot more value in scouting reports than in statistics. There are so many factors that influence statistics such that you can't really tell by the statistics what type of baseball player a draftee may become. Yeah, you can see some trends and some things in the numbers, but they're almost as meaningless as spring training statistics. Having said that, you can't ignore statistics all together. Obviously a guy who slugs .700 has some pop in his bat. Aluminum bats or not, that can't be ignored.

When the M's swept Oakland to end the season, they lost the shot at having the first overall pick in today's draft. That pretty much meant they're the bridesmaid in the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes. While it is sort of a bummer, I'm going to focus on the positives. Heh.

In general, pitchers are riskier than hitters. High school pitchers are riskier than college pitchers. That seems to be common knowledge. So, in that regard, I would be fine with the M's being the bridesmaid in this draft when Dustin Ackley is the "consolation prize." He's a lefty bat, with tremendous speed, decent power, good outfield instincts, and he should be a safe bet to be a decent player in the majors. I'm not going to name "comps" because that's just ridiculous, IMHO, but should his arm heal up enough to regain strength to throw from CF again, he will be a very good value. Interestingly, and somewhat unsurprisingly, Dave Cameron throws the idea up on FanGraphs that "there's a not-too-ridiculous case to be made that the Nationals should draft Dustin Ackley instead [of Strasburg]." I've been thinking that for quite some time (and not just because of wishful thinking that Washintgon passes on Strasburg).

Tanner Scheppers is a guy that's been talked a lot about, too. While there's legitmate concerns about his shoulder stuff (as there was with Morrow), his "stuff" is second only to Strasburg's (according to the reports I've read). There's a lot of risk with pitchers in general, so it'll be interesting to see what happens to him, even if the M's don't draft him.

Guys I've been following a bit are Rich Poythress, Matt Purke and Tyler Matzek. The latter two are prep pitchers -- left handers -- with excellent stuff. Poythress is a righty lumbering first baseman for Georgia. If any of those three fell to the M's at 27, I'd be excited. I doubt any of them will, however, even with outrageous bonus demands.

Guys I'm not very high on in this draft (where others are) include Grant Green and Brett Jackson. Green's got some legitimate concerns w/r/t fielding position, and Brett Jackson has questions about his bat. They're still both good enough to be considered first rounders in this current draft, however.

One thing's for certain -- about the only thing the M's DON'T need is a relief pitcher. Yeah, they have some depth at several positions, but I'm pretty confident that if they choose a particular player it won't solely be because they're drafting a guy to fill a need. Since Day One, Zduriencik has said it's all about filling this team with as much talent as it can get. Ryan Divish reports this morning that the M's aren't really concerned about bonus demands -- they're more focused on getting the "best player available:"

And according to McNamara, the Mariners are committed to getting the best players. Things like outrageous signing bonuses and difficult agents aren’t issues.

“Not an issue,” he said. “We’re lining them up and taking the best guys. We keep it to talent.

I'll believe that when I see it. Clearly the budget-conscious Howard Lincoln has given Zduriencik and McNamara a dollar figure. And that dollar figure is probably lower than what M's fans and draft followers think it should be.

If, however, Washington takes Cameron's advice and picks Ackley over Strasburg, then I'm willing to bet that dollar figure is increased just a little bit.

I'm with Zdurienck, Mac! Just get it right! I've been very disappointed with the M's choices in the most recent draft. Save for Aumont, they've pretty much gone in the direction I didn't want them to go in. This year, there are several options, and knowing that the M's aren't going to blow huge bucks on the draft (in spite of what Divish reports this morning), so long as they don't draft one of the guys I don't like ahead of one I do, I probably won't go too ballistic. There's talent to be had, for sure, and the only way I'm disappointed is if the M's go waaaaay cheap and pass up on highly-rated players for easy-sign overdrafts.

Just get it right.

Oh, Wlad... Oh, Wak...

2009-06-05T22:22:00.000-07:00

After catching an inning of the Rainiers on TV, I decided to flip over to Felix and the M's. I watched most of the game, flipping back-and-forth to the R's game (Yikes, Hyphen! YAAAAY ADAM!!!). The end of the M's game, however, really shocked me. Rob Johnson amazed me yet again with a reasonably decent defensive performance. My issue with Rob has been with his ability to block low pitches and just his overall catching the ball behind the plate. I've always thought his arm was pretty good, but I never understood why, beyond his arm, he was considered a good catcher. But that's a discussion for another day.

I was surprised that Wlad was still in the game in the bottom of the 9th and in the 10th. The M's strength this year has been pitching and defense. If you don't want to pinch hit for Wlad in the 9th, fine, but you gotta get your glove guy out there. People should know that I've been an advocate of Wlad's defense for awhile, but even I recognize that Endy Chavez is waaaay better out there.

In the top of the 10th, Wlad did his best Raul Ibanez impression and baaadly misplayed a ball, leading to a lead-off double. A walk to Morneau, and then Kubel comes up and jacks one darn near over the fence. Except that Mark Lowe owes Franklin Gutierrez a nice dinner - Gutz comes back with the ball and throws it to 2nd, keeping Morneau from advancing, while Mauer advanced to 3rd. Then we come to a very rare play that you don't see all the time -- a pitch-out on a suicide squeeze call, leading to the runner at 3rd being tagged out. It was a brilliant move, whoever called it. The Twins' batter at the plate tried his darndest to get some wood on the ball, but it was too far out and they were able to nail Mauer before he scored. Between the robbed HR, and the brilliant pitch-out, the M's had some major momentum.

Except, good GRAVY I need to re-consider my stance on Wlad's defense. And Wak's managing. Fastball/flyball pitcher on the mound (Lowe), late in the game and tied at 1 - you want your best OF defense out there. Wlad's un-catch (he nearly caught it, but took another horrible route to the ball) swung the mo' back in the Twin's favor and gave them the lead. There'd better be a good explanation as to why Endy was not out there...

I love Wlad, I really do. But that was some poor play and some poor decision-making out of Wak, too.

Finally!

2009-06-02T23:50:00.001-07:00

After years of waiting, I finally got to see Adam Moore in person tonight. Obviously Marc got a head start, and has posted some fantastic pictures here of both him and Michael Saunders -- the two guys I focused a lot of attention on with my cameras tonight. As per usual, I didn't stay for the whole game, so I missed the epic comeback in the 8th. I haven't sifted through all the photos yet, and Jason gets first dibs (I've already sent him several). But I wanted to post just one photo from the game tonight -- actually I shot this just before the game during warmups. Here's Adam in his catcher's gear just before taking his spot behind home plate. While I wasn't über-impressed with his bat tonight (from what I saw anyway), I do have a photo of him keeping the ball in front of him and blocking the ball very well. Since the guys didn't take BP (they landed in Seattle at around 2 p.m., or so I was told), I'm not surprised their bats were a little rusty.

Rainiers Update

2009-05-25T17:03:00.000-07:00

Just a quick photo-addled post to show just how much the Rainiers roster has turned over since my last post.
Joining the bottleneck at 1B/LF/DH is Brad Nelson, acquired from the Brewers about 2 weeks ago. He's had less than 20 ABs with the R's so far, and hit his first HR for Tacoma on Sunday. Today, the Nashville Sounds came to town - the team Nelson played for from 2005-2008.
So far, the 265-270lb Nelson's playing mostly in the OF corners, which looks like a disaster waiting to happen, but Nelson actually gets a decent jump and covers a bit of ground out there. He's not fast, so I'm not saying he's Endy Chavez, but he's done well so far - especially after a somewhat rough first game on Thursday night.

In addition to Nelson, Jack Zduriencik also picked up CF Jerry Owens, who'd been let go by the White Sox. Owens starts most games, pushing Prentice Redman into a corner OF slot.

Owens and Nelson are more properly thought of as organizational depth - not quite minor league vets who sign a new MiLB contract each year with little hope of seeing the big leagues, but not prospects either.
Adam Moore is clearly a prospect, and since his arrival a few weeks ago, he's gotten nearly every start at catcher, and his presence in the starting line-up seems to reinforce the idea that Jeff Clement's days as a catching prospect are over. Clement is now DHing due to knee troubles, but it's somewhat unlikely that they'd push Moore back to West Tennessee even if Clement gets a full bill of health.

...and in the tools of ignorance....

Moore hasn't hit for too much power; his swing looks good, though, and he should start racking up some 2Bs at the least -he had one today. He's also shown impressive plate discipline.

With Jason Vargas and Garrett Olson now in the M's rotation, the Rainiers now feature Doug Fister in the rotation. The 6'8" righty hasn't been as sharp in the rotation as he had been in the pen, but he's done fine so far. I don't think he'd miss a lot of MLB bats, but he's got impressive control, running a ridiculous 26:2 K:BB ratio so far.

Another guy the M's may utilize in the near future is LHRP Tyler Johnson, now healthy after surgery that kept him out all of 2008. The ex-Cardinal throws a high 80s FB with a good slider.
The impressively-inked Johnson made his 2009 debut on Sunday, throwing a 1-2-3 inning against Memphis, and using only 8 pitches.

Last but not least, OF prospect Michael Saunders rejoined the Rainiers after off-season shoulder surgery, and has wasted no time in showing everyone that he's fine. The Canuck has 11 extra base hits already, and made a great leaping catch in CF today, and ended Thursday's game with an assist at the plate. Photos soon....

Whoops!

2009-05-11T10:47:00.000-07:00

Well, I pretty much jinxed the M's last week. I should know to keep my mouth shut over here...

In another note - I read in Baker's article this morning, that Griffey's hole-in-one HR into the Subway promotion won't net him the advertised $25,000. I would file a false advertising complaint and sue Subway for $250,000.

Twenty-five thousand can buy a lot of ties.

Summary, Thus far...

2009-04-25T21:39:00.000-07:00

The 2001 M's were 14-4 after 18 games. The 2009 M's are now 12-6 -- two games back.

Only one series loss this year.

What else can be said, but WOW!

Ahem Uh, is this thing on?

2009-04-20T16:10:00.001-07:00

Apparently, I can still post here!
I'll post this quick, before Paul notices....

The Rainiers season (and their current homestand) began a while ago, and STILL you lack a decent preview. I apologize, morsel readers.

In my defense, I was going to use Chris Jakubauskas as the focal point of it, but he went and got himself a job in the M's starting rotation. To think it was only a month ago or so that I was arguing with Churchill that he deserved a spot on the team.... TACOMA's team. I've never seen perception of a player's value change so quickly. Congrats, Chris - we at MM have some experience in championing indie-league vets, so you're in good company.

Anyway, the Rainiers really should have a good team this year. While they're a bit light in actual prospects compared to years past, that should change fairly soon. They're also extremely deep on offense - something they haven't had in quite some time.
At 1B, Chris Shelton and Mike Carp expected to split time, with Bryan LaHair. Carp is the actual prospect in the group, and as such has cemented his position as the starter (he's tied for the lead in games played). It also helps that he's absolutely annihilating the ball, hitting his 3rd HR yesterday against Vin Mazzaro of Sacramento (a good prospect himself).

Chris Shelton, coming off his scorching spring and disappointing assignment to Tacoma, has been the DH, with occasional starts at 1B and 3B.

C Jeff Clement may be practicing at 1B, but he certainly hasn't played there yet. He's DH'd some, but he's also still catching most games. He got off to a much-publicized slow start, but he's come alive on the recent homestand, going 5-16 with his first two XBH's after starting 1-19.

At 2B the Rainiers are using a combination of Chris Burke and Callix Crabbe.
Crabbe is also playing quite a bit of SS, splitting time with Chris Woodward.
Here's Crabbe:

And here's Woodward:

Matt Tuiasosopo, Mike Morse, and Chris Shelton have seen time at 3b. Paul got some great shots of Tui/Shelton on opening day, which you can see in the comments here....

The OF is still a bit unsettled, as slugging corner OF Mike Wilson (fresh from his record-setting spring training) is currently on the DL. Prentice Redman is back for another year, and he's joined by Freddy Guzman, another defensive-minded OF who was hurt early on in spring training this year. Mike Morse and Bryan LaHair hold down the other corner OF spot, at least until Mike Saunders recovers from shoulder surgery. Chris Burke has also played some CF, and indie-leaguer and ex-Brewers farmhand Steve Moss is on hand as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement in CF.

The rotation so far has featured Jason Vargas, Chris Seddon, Garrett Olson, Andrew Baldwin and Gaby Hernandez. No one's really putting up eye-popping K:BB ratios or anything - as should be expected from a group whose pure stuff isn't awe-inspiring. Still, the group is very solid and it's one reason Tacoma's off to such a fast start.
Vargas pitched 5 2/3IP of 1 hit, 0 run ball yesterday - despite getting 2Ks and walking 4. Just like in Seattle, a good defense really, really matters. Callix Crabbe made some amazing plays on the IF, and Vargas got a number of lazy fly balls. Overall, it's not a surefire recipe for success, but he's been quite solid. The lefty's FB is around 88MPH, and he used a change-up at around 79 MPH fairly often. He threw one big looping curve at 73.

Chris Seddon is another lefty throwing 87-88, who misses a few more bats with a slider and change.

Gaby Hernandez was once a prized prospect in the Mets organization - a righty with a power arsenal and the results to match. Then, in 2007, he started missing fewer bats and his progress stalled a bit. He was traded to the Marlins for a spell, then came to the M's in the Arthur Rhodes deal. He's got a sterling K:BB ratio, but his stuff seems a bit more pedestrian, and that's led a lot of hits (and 2HR in 10+ innings). On the plus side, some of the hits allowed are a result of the fact that he's getting more grounders now than ever before. He's young enough that he could really put a disappointing AFL/Spring/2008 behind him and get back on the map again with a good showing in 2009.
Andy Baldwin was the workhorse of the team in 2008, and he's off to a flying start in 2009. He uses a 90-or-so FB and a decent curve to keep hitters off balance. While he doesn't generate a lot of Ks or swinging strikes, he pounds the zone - he walked less than 6% of batters last year.
Olson was supposed to be the jewel of the rotation; he was a heralded prospect in the Baltimore organization and pitched most of the year for the birds last year. Unfortunately, he's gotten shelled in MLB in 2007 and 2008, and his K-sw% and swinging strikes have been falling since 2006. His tRA so far in 2009 is even worse than his MLB tRA last year, thanks largely to 8 BBs in only 8 IP (to 3 Ks). Olson, another lefty, uses an 87-88 MPH FB and a big breaking curve at 79-80. He's also got a change-up. Like Hernandez, Olson needs a big year to show that his MLB results were an aberration, and not the result of an injury or AAAA stuff. He'll start tonight in the series finale against Sacramento.

The Rainiers sit at 8-3, the top mark in the PCL. They lead Colorado Springs and Salt Lake by a half-game in the Pacific North division. The Bees come to town starting tomorrow evening for a four-game set.

I didn't mean like that...

2009-04-12T22:09:00.000-07:00

Churchill reported recently on Prospect Insider that Austin Bibens-Dirkx was released from the M's organization. It was such a noteworthy move that I can't find it anywhere, other than on Churchill's site (and of course, that he's not on any of the major affiliates' rosters). Of course doing a little more digging and asking around, I find it buried here in the Baseball America transactions.

I must apologize to Austin. Evidently I failed in my duties as the "Free Austin!" campaign manager. I need someone to keep an eye on the Phillies' MiLB rosters just in case he shows up :-)

Site re-design coming, I think. I need to ramp up the noise for Adam Moore, who's back in AA to start the season because the M's can't decide what to do with Clement. Ugh.

Oh Dear...

2009-03-29T13:20:00.000-07:00

Upon hearing the latest news, I hate to say this.

But I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!

What is Wrong with Hyphen???

2009-03-25T12:11:00.000-07:00

In watching the game yesterday, I noticed that Hyphen (Ryan Rowland-Smith) was displaying yet another poor Spring Training outing. A couple of solo HRs -- Manny's first and one to Brad Ausmus -- and no life to his pitches really suggested something more than spring rustiness is going on.

In the comment section at Prospect Insider, Jason mentions that a scout at the game reported his velocity at 85-87 in the first inning. I agree. YIKES!

C'mon Hyphen -- if there's something hurtin' ya, LET PEOPLE KNOW. Don't eff up your long-term career potential by trying to play through pain.

Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaack

2009-02-18T22:18:00.000-08:00

Ken Griffey Junior is returning to Seattle.

More later. Believe me, I've been trying to write about this for the last several weeks. I'll just let that photo say the first 1000 words.

Who said there's no crying in baseball? Well, sorry, you're wrong!

Hmmm...

2008-12-12T22:17:00.000-08:00

Modeling a new uniform, sportin' the goatee again. And still the brim isn't bent...

(Courtesy of the Baltimore Sun)

Heck of a first trade, eh?

2008-12-10T22:51:00.000-08:00

So Jack Zduriencik made his first big splash as a GM. Yeah, signing Branyan and giving Shelton (Branyan's potential platoon mate) a minor league deal happened first, but this move's obviously more recognizable to the common fan.

I'm not a huge fan of defensive metrics, and assigning individual dogmatic values to them, but I do really subscribe to the theory that an above-average defender with an ~average bat is a very valuable player. I'm excited to see what Gutierrez will bring to the table, defensively, and if he's got any sort of bat at all.

Of all these four:

...I think I'm most sad about losing Little Luis. That's not really an area of depth the M's have -- Valbuena was the most likely internal option to replace Lopez or Betancourt were one of those guys to be traded. Putz is my son's favorite player, but I've always been unfairly biased against him (anyone remember the Pützenbömber??? I do, and I'm sure marc w does...).

I do like this trade for the Mets and for the Mariners. And I'm really curious what the Indians see in Valbuena. The fact that they wanted him as sort of a centerpiece in their side of the deal somewhat confirms my affinity for Luis.

While it's a blockbuster, and a decent deal, it's certainly only barely earth-shattering. The M's pitching staff likely will have their ERAs drop somewhat noticably -- even if they pitch virtually the same way. That's not a bad thing. Now I wonder about the offense.

Thoughts on Zduriencik

2008-10-23T09:12:00.000-07:00

Officially tomorrow, the M's will introduce former Brewers' executive Jack Zduriencik as their Vice President and General Manager.

Here are my thoughts on this selection.

1) Presuming Bob Engle and Bob Fontaine are retained, the M's have pretty much established a trinity of scouting geniuses at the top. This is a good thing. While the new era of baseball has introduced statistical analysis as a valid form of evaluating players, scouting absolutely cannot be sacrificed in the process of implementing stats-analysis.

2) Milwaukee Brewers fans seem to be very disappointed by their loss -- but happy for Zduriencik at the same time. I imagine an equivalent reaction would be felt if, say, Bob Engle were hired away by some other team as their GM. I know I certainly would be in shock and would see the M's suffer if they lost Engle.

3) Zduriencik seems like a safe pick. Enough of the status-quo to not rock the boat TOO much (like a neo-modern saber-GM would) but enough change to appease many of the cynics. I'm not at all surprised that CHowArmLinStrong would pick him.

4) He's very, very, VERY good at analyzing players. A lot of stuff I've discussed with my friends who are more knowledgeable (and more connected) than I am has really affirmed that he will be an asset to this team.

5) Evaluating players, however, is only part of the equation. These players, if they're drafted or picked up on the IFA market, need to be developed. The M's have had some very questionable player development recently, and I really hope this is one area where Zduriencik improves this club. Building a front office around him, too, will be very, very important. While Zduriencik may not have stats-analysis as his strength, I have no idea how friendly he is to the concept. To help the M's get the most bang for their buck -- in building a deep club with cheap backup options for when your plans A, B & C fall through for whatever reason -- they really need to become value-oriented in the stats-analysis sense. Tapping into the scrap heap and freely-available talent pool much, much more frequently rather than spending tomorrow's money just to fill a slot you need to fill with a guy who may not be the best option.

Overall, I'm a little disappointed that the M's didn't completely change direction and hired a more new-school GM. I have a few concerns about Zduriencik that I won't publish on my blog, but they're really trivial. But, considering Lincoln and Armstrong were primarily responsible for this choice, I think Zduriencik was the best the M's could've hoped for. Having a supercharged scouting department (again assuming they keep Fontaine and Engle) will help infuse some much-needed talent into this system. Once the remodelled ProspectInsider is launched, I'm sure Jason will keep busy watching all the players under this new regime.

I'm just curious how quickly this move will translate into success at the MLB level because I'm one of many, many people who are absolutely tired of this franchise being a complete joke...

One Hundred!

2008-09-25T08:46:00.000-07:00

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What if...

2008-09-05T21:59:00.000-07:00

Thanks, Brandon! Thanks for bringing some excitement back into Marinerville tonight. Seriously, thanks a ton!

While it would've been the most incredible pitching accomplishment I've seen in a long, long time had Morrow completed the no-hitter, I'm actually almost equally happy with the fact that he didn't get it. See, it gives us a lot to talk about. Lots to say "What if?" to.

Isn't that one of the more entertaining things about sports in general anyway? I mean, if you're given the carrot all the time, it's not quite as fun, and the carrot starts to taste like crap. You gotta keep things exciting by dangling that carrot just out of reach most of the time...

What if, though...

What if Brandon had gotten that third out. With a pitch count preference of 90-95 for Brandon established by the coaching staff before the game, would they have let him go out there after having thrown 106 through 8? In the post game show, Riggleman hinted that he might've. I wouldn't've disagreed with that decision. While Morrow was starting to show signs of tiring, he still was doing a pretty good job of keeping his form. He seemed to be mostly in a good pace, and might've been able to benefit from a few moments of rest between innings to gather the adrenaline to start the 9th. I would've had Putz warming up and ready to go, and given Morrow a "Go get 'em" kick in the ass to start the ninth. It's the end of the season, and it's not like you're counting on him to carry you into the playoffs. While he may not have been ready and stretched out enough to go further, it's not like he's pitched a lot of innings this year either. When a guy's throwing like that all game, still showing his velocity, and in that big of a zone, sometimes it's OK to throw caution to the wind.

What if, too, they would've moved him down to Tacoma to begin his tutelage and preparation for becoming a starter a few weeks earlier? Yeah, there's a risk that he could've been more fatigued coming into this start. But there's also the possibility he's built up his conditioning even more, and when combined with the adrenaline rush of making his MLB starting debut, he cruises easier through the 8th, and has the stamina to stay in that zone that he was in pretty much all night.

There are probably a lot more "What ifs" that could be discussed, too. But for tonight, Brandon won me back as a fan. He showed that there's some definite promise for the future. You know what I'd like to see tomorrow? Ryan "Hyphen" Rowland-Smith going out there and not necessarily trying to 1-up Brandon (it'd be nearly impossible for him to do so), but making a statement in his own right. I suspect with Hyphen's ultra-competitive spirit, he's probably itching to take the mound after Brandon's performance. He doesn't quite have the stuff that Morrow has, but he almost makes up for it with his bull-doggedness.

When we ask "What if..." we tend to look at the past. Certainly, though, the M's have some bright spots moving into the future. It looks as though Brandon Morrow is one of them. I'm REALLY glad they made the decision to move him into the rotation.

The only regret they might have would be that they didn't do it sooner.

Wow? No posts in August?

2008-09-02T22:09:00.001-07:00

I have been completely slacking off and neglecting this place. Yes, Mariners Morsels is still alive. I do want to keep writing about the Mariners and baseball.

Honestly, though, what more can be said?

The Mariners have sucked me into apathy. I'll still watch the occasional game, but I'm finding myself not really caring much if I miss the game. I did see Beltre hit for the cycle yesterday and that was pretty darn sweet! Other than a few moments, the lure of baseball has been pretty un-strong for me for many reasons this year. I'm definitely spending more time posting in non-baseball-related FanPosts (Diaries, dammit!) over at LookoutLanding than I am posting in the game threads over there. And I went to more R's games this year -- though still not nearly as many as I'd hoped -- than I'll likely have gone to M's games.

The regime that has run the Mariners since the early 90's has sucked any sort of hope for the future out of me. I'm tired of being disappointed by Chuck and Howie. Come October, when this season is finally finished, and the M's are moving forward towards 2009 and beyond, if those two are still part of the picture, I'm not sure how things will change. Yeah, sure they'll get some new faces in -- but let's be clear, does anyone think those two have the knowledge and desire to completely overhaul the entire organizational philosophy the way it really needs to be done? I can't -- and won't -- trust them to right this ship. They have the money to do so, sure, but this administration (Chuck and Howie, specifically) are very likely to recieve the scarlet letter of becoming the first franchise to spend $100 million on a 100-loss club. If that's not enough to get ownership's attention, then really what will?

I've also spent a lot of time doing non-baseball things with my family. It hasn't just affected baseball -- I've also neglected my photography blogs. I'm still taking photos, but writing just hasn't been my thing this summer. Having also spent a lot of time with Churchill this summer, I can totally relate to his recognition that there's more to life than baseball, and see why he'd want to "retire" from ProspectInsider. I think Munchausen (rest his blog identity) would be proud :-)

Since the impact of this little blog isn't anywhere close to the impact of ProspectInsider, LookoutLanding, USSMariner, etc., I'm not as concerned about neglecting it. Obviously the other "authors" around here haven't had much to say here either, and it's honestly not that big of a deal to me. This place ultimately exists for those times when I want to jot some thoughts down that may not fit anywhere else I hang out in the M's blog-o-sphere. And the same goes for the others I've partnered around here with. MarinersMorsels is more of a sketch pad than a full-fledged art gallery. A Post-it Note, etc.

If the subtle backchannel chatter does come to fruition, though, and the M's ownership changes hands, you better believe I'll be inspired to write again. Even still, really, baseball has fallen a few notches down in the priority list.

And, honestly, I think I'm fine with that.

I'm still gonna root for George. And Adam. And Austin. I'll write more on all three of them very soon. I just have to finish sifting through the 2000+ photos my assistant and I took at a paid wedding gig. And a few other things, too.

Dave Niehaus, the First Mariner in the HOF

2008-07-27T12:58:00.000-07:00

Unlike many other hardcore baseball fans, I didn't really grow up listening to baseball. I didn't pay much attention at all to the Mariners, really, until about 1986. But when I discovered baseball, I really learned to enjoy it every time I listened to Niehaus call the game on the old white AM radio my dad had. We'd have the game on when my dad was working on the car -- and Niehaus' rosy rhythms and smooth droll provided some interesting counterpoint to my father's terse cursing preceded by the clink-clank of the greasy tool falling into a nearly-impossible-to-retrieve gap, along with that only nut that would fit the last bolt holding onto whatever it was my dad was fixing.

But as I dove into baseball, I grew to really appreciate the game thanks to Dave's skillful game-calling. In 1991, when the M's were winners for the first time ever -- after almost 15 years of being losers and the butt of jokes around the league -- I thought of Dave and how long he'd suffered with the team. And then Dave brought a whole lot of current Mariners fans into the fold with "the Double" and, really, the excitement that drew folks into the team as they made the playoffs for the first time.

Now, as the Mariners revisit the "glory" days of the 1970s and 1980s, on pace for a 100-loss season, and Dave's better days are behind them, the team owes it to him and to all of the long-suffering fans to right this ship and get back to the playoffs, and hopefully giving Dave the opportunity to call history in the World Series.

George being George...

2008-07-15T23:21:00.000-07:00

(borrowed from BaltimoreOrioles.com)

A couple of quick observations from the ASG tonight:

First thing I noticed was the 3-day goatee making a subtle appearance. I laughed at George's rebellion.
I timed it perfectly -- I was outside doing yardwork and getting the house ready to sell and came in just as George came out from the bullpen, into the game.
Leave it to the AL to play like the Mariners and not score the runner from 2nd when no one was out. It was bittersweet that George did his thing and didn't get the victory or the save. Man, what if...
Twenty-five pitches, 18 strikes. 'Nuff said.
Definitely deserved consideration for the MVP. Coming in with the bases loaded and getting a 3-pitch strikeout? Awesome!

What a great way to handle the spotlight.

See, I told you!

2008-07-06T19:47:00.000-07:00

From LOOGY to All-Star, practically overnight.

Not bad for a guy who wasn't drafted out of college and who had to fight his way into MLB.

I'm sure someone at the ASG can teach you how to bend your brim...

Congrats, GS52! Awesome. Just. Awesome!

(Kudos even further to Deanna who made the above photo, one of my faves of GS52 in the M's blues)

Goodbye, Sonics! Go to HE__, NBA!

2008-07-03T15:03:00.000-07:00

In the early days of the Morsels, I mentioned that I didn't grow up as a baseball fan. My first love in the professional sports world was the Sonics. I vividly remember the Sonics BOOM! era, with Bob Blackburn, Downtown Freddy Brown, and the Fat Lady singing, long before Kevin Calabro. Who could forget the Band-Aid twins (Johnson & Johnson). It's safe to say that I hated Wes Unseld much more than I dislike Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong today. I loved Freddy Brown and Jack Sikma as much or more then as I like George Sherrill and Adrian Beltre today. I cried when I heard Dennis Johnson died.

I still have the LP where this MP3 came from. I saw the Sonics play in the Kingdome. And long before Key Arena was renovated to become Key Arena. My dad was watching a Sonics game when I noticed our trailer caught on fire in the driveway (and Sonics games on TV were very rare in that day). When the Seahawks were invented, it took us a few years to pay much more than passing attention to them, and again, I paid even less attention to the Mariners (seeing my first game in the mid-80s and finally paying SOME attention in 1986).

I have many fond memories of the Sonics. Again, they were my first team. I'm so disappointed in the news that they're leaving, but my apathy for the NBA was well-established a long time ago. Yeah, there's a chance that Seattle will get another NBA team, but you know what? I honestly hope they don't. I've switched from apathy to hatred for the NBA.

Good-bye Sonics! Don't come back. Unless, of course, another professional basketball leagues is formed after the mess that the NBA has become. You're dead to me. The NBA is a bigger bunch of losers than the Washington Generals. It's almost as big of a kayfabe, at the very least...

Hey, now! Look at this!

2008-06-24T14:15:00.001-07:00

Yep. George Sherrill T-Shirt night in Baltimore on July 1st.

Amazing, isn't it. Wish that shirt were blue, though...

Something to ponder...

2008-06-16T10:52:00.000-07:00

The M's just got swept -- SWEPT -- by the worst team in the worst league. Seriously -- we all kid about the NL being a place for second-class players, and the M's just got swept by the team in the cellar of that league.

"I Built This Team!"

"My Oh My, Bill -- yes you did!"

"Can you smell it? That's your 2008 Mariners..."

Edit: Wow. That was uncanny. I had no idea that move would happen today...

I've utmost respect for Bavasi the person. I didn't like him as the GM of the M's, but let's make one thing clear -- Bavasi's not an idiot. He's an incredibly awesome person who just wasn't able to make things happen as a GM in Seattle. See ya, Bill! Good luck with your future -- I'd still buy you a drink and sit at the table with ya any day of the week.

Bring Horacio along, okay?

An All-Star Game Berth for GS52???

2008-06-02T13:25:00.001-07:00

Here's something to ponder. Will George get to his first ASG this year?

As of today, he's second in the AL in saves. Considering that the O's are in last place, he's not getting many save opportunities (as expected, really). Of course, GS52 almost has as many saves vs. the Mariners (5) as J.J. Putz has saves vs. everyone (6).

Now, I recognize that saves aren't everything. But they do count for the person who's racking them up, and they give something to sportswriters and agents to talk about. He has fewer walks than Putz (in 14 MORE Batters faced (BFPs)) and K-Rod (in 2 fewer BFPs). I never said George would be a dominant, lights-out closer, but I've always thought he'd handle the role very well. Not bad for a shy kid from the Memphis area who plowed through major obstacles, taking the road less-travelled to the big leagues.

With Putz struggling mightily, and with the M's believing they actually have more than a snowball's chance in Gehenna of making the playoffs (and therefore are unwilling to move Morrow out of the setup spot and into the rotation), wouldn't it be nice to have George around? Of course he's probably a lot more respected where he's at, and is actually coming into games for more than just one LH batter...

Welcome to Seattle, Erik!

2008-05-28T21:33:00.000-07:00

So nice of you to show up.

Please, stay for awhile. Have a cup of coffee.

Three Lessons...

2008-05-24T09:59:00.000-07:00

There have been some interesting discussions around the blogs lately about how utterly bad this team has been to watch. I think it's sort of comical, really. It's brought up something, though, that has to be mentioned. I present three lessons.

Lesson #1
In 2004, a lot of us were clamoring for the departure of Bob Melvin. While the team was terrible, and really, 2004 was the start of this mess, we'd hoped the Mariners would can his butt and hire a better manager. Well, he did get fired, and certainly few of us thought Mike Hargrove could be worse. Whoops. Fast-forward to 2006, where all of us had grown tired of Hargrove, and were clamoring for him to be fired (and we practically threw a party when Churchill and others were hearing reports that he was about to be canned). Surely anyone -- anyone -- would be better than him. So, when Hargrove left on his own terms in 2007, it was sort of bittersweet.

And then we got McLaren. Now, I'm not saying that the current M's woes are his responsibility -- he's not the one up at the plate, serving meatballs and not making the fielding plays. But he's not entirely innocent either.

Lesson #2
In 2006, a lot of us were glad to see Gil Meche and Joel Pinero leave. Then, in 2007, their replacements -- Jeff Weaver & Horacio Ramirez were comically worse. Surely as bad as they were, things had to improve.

Can you believe that Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista have been worse, so far, than Weaver & Ramirez?

Lesson #3
A lot of people complained about Pat Gillick destroying the farm system by sacrificing draft picks to compensate for signing veteran non-superstar free agents. And at the same time, for "standing Pat" at the trade deadline (i.e. holding onto other prospects -- that in the end didn't pan out for the M's). So they were glad to see him go, and
Bavasi brought in to salvage the farm system. However, I'd argue that in spite of helping build the farm system by actually using the draft again, Bavasi has been a worse GM than Gillick.

So, if Bavasi is fired -- it can't get worse, right?

Hmmmm...

Griffey in 2008?

2008-05-13T09:34:00.000-07:00

As I mentioned in my previous post -- I'd really honestly prefer the M's sign Barry Bonds over trading for Griffey. Recognizing that they likely wouldn't do that, my second choice would be to sign Kenny Lofton, who's defense would help the Mariners and whose bat probably wouldn't be that much different than Griffey's (sacrificing some power for fewer outs and a bit more speed).

Here's some perspective. Griffey's MLB career started in 1989 -- here's a list of things that were going on back then:

The Berlin Wall was still intact. I know, I was there in 1989 -- it came down only 6 months after I wrote on it (and after Griffey had been in the league for one season).
The Exxon Valdez oil spill happened
It was still the 80s.
Paula Abdul's "Forever Your Girl" was a #1 single. Madonna's "Like a Prayer" was, too. Deborah Gibson was known as Debbie, and topping the charts. New Kids on the Block, Milli Vanilli -- need I say more?
Rain Man was the Best Picture
Wrestlemania V: Hulk Hogan defeats Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Sega Genesis & Nintendo GameBoy released
Pete Rose's lifetime ban begins, the Skydome in Toronto opens
The Simpsons and Seinfeld debut on TV
Joe Jonas, Sanjaya Malakar, Michele Wie, Jordan Sparks, and Lil Mama were born
Ted Bundy, Ayatolla Khomeni, Salvador Dali, Lucille Ball, Bart Giamatti, Ferdinand Marcos, Graham Chapman, Bette Davis, Joe Collins, Irving Berlin, and Mel Blanc (aka Bugs Bunny/Daffy Duck/Porky Pig/Barney Rubble, etc...) all died.

But let's dig a little deeper.

As most of us are probably aware, Griffey has 10-5 rights -- he's been in the league for 10 years and has been with the same team for 5 years. This allows him the right to veto a trade and/or a waiver claim, even without having a no-trade clause in his contract.

The important question becomes, then, would Griffey consent to a trade to the Mariners -- and if so -- why?

During his heyday, Griffey was definitely a leader in the clubhouse. He and Jay Buhner were particularly close, and both of them helped drive Lou Piniella insane. Remember this commercial? Of course, Junior was a LOT younger then, and most of those teammates have retired, except RJ and a few others. But John McLaren was around then, and he was beloved by Junior.

Yeah, Junior probably has a sense of nostalgia and would like to finish his career where it began. I believe his words -- and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he wanted to stick around longer than the 1-day contract that's been discussed in the media.

The thing is -- Griffey probably wants a ring more than he wants nostalgia. I'm not sure if he's got the energy or the desire to carry this woeful team on his shoulders to dig them out of the deep hole they've found themselves in. It's a ridiculously deep hole that sacrificing outfield defense won't help. While I don't necessarily assent to the validity of defense stats and measurements, I'm comfortable enough with their reliability when looking at a team's rating/valuation, even if I'm not 100% sold on the cost/benefit to the win/loss record. I am not at all surprised that the recent analysis shows the M's as having the worst defense, in terms of plays below average. While Wlad Balentien has been helping tremendously, he caught the sucktitis virus going around the team tonight. Moving him out to move Griffey in would definitely not help this.

I mention defense because if Griffey does consent to be traded back to Seattle, it won't be as the DH. At FanFest this year, Jay Buhner -- arguably one of Griffey's best friends to this day -- mentioned that while Griffey would probably be best suited as a DH (saying his days as a great OF'er are long behind him), Griffey isn't quite ready to give up his spot on the field. And even if they move Raul from LF to DH (or 1B), the upgrade probably isn't very significant. I can't imagine Griffey being too anxious to be platooned and/or moved around the field. Even if it's probably best for all parties involved. Except, of course, the M's current DH -- Jeff Clement (who really should displace Kenji Johjima at the catcher's position).

And I really don't want to get into my fears of what Bavasi would give up to get Griffey back.

While the nostalgic part of me would like to see Griffey come back and put some energy into this woeful team, I also recognize that the older you get, the less motivated you get to "go all messiah". While the 1990s Griffey could definitely help the M's right now, the Griffey of today would just be another symptom of the problem.

The M's are too focused on the past. They're content to completely ignore defense. The M's value experience and reputation much more than they value talent. Trading for Griffey at the cost of someone like Adam Moore or Juan Ramirez, and the development of either Wlad or Jeff would be a terrible decision.

That's completely why I expect it to happen...

Screw Junior -- The M's Need Bonds!

2008-05-07T22:40:00.001-07:00

I know they'll never do it. I know the blog-o-sphere has overstated this. I'm still going to say it.

Now, more than ever before, the Mariners need a bat. They need some attention. They need a guy who can distract them from spiraling completely out of control. Yes, it's cold outside and it's still spring (and the kids are still in school) -- but that's only a minor reason why attendance is plummeting.

Apathy, I'd say, is probably the biggest reason.

To cure this apathy they could a) start winning; b) get someone in there to draw some attention in or c) do something drastic (and stupid) by clearing house completely. Since a) isn't about to happen, and c) isn't about to happen, that leaves us with b) -- however remote THAT even is.

A lot of talk lately has centered around bringing Griffey home. Yeah, that might be interesting. But considering that Griffey is on the downhill slide of his career arc, and would require giving up talent, he shouldn't be the first option. I just don't trust Bavasi with his trading track record.

So, really, that leaves us with Barry Bonds as the next logical option. Yes, he too is on the downhill slide of his career.

But.

Barry Bonds at age 44 is a better hitter than Griffey at age 38. Yeah, yeah -- PEDs and all that crap. I discussed this nearly two years ago. There's news that the union is looking into possible collusion, with how Barry Bonds has been treated in free agency.

I hate Barry a metric ton. I don't care, though -- I love the Mariners more than I hate Barry. This team needs a kick in the ass. Barry's about the only guy around who can do it.

To a lot of people, Howard Lincoln doesn't have a soul to sell. Well, it's time for him to sell whatever's left of it to make room for one of the best hitters of all time, even if he skirted unspoken rules (PEs, of course, not being banned by MLB during the time Barry Bonds was likely to have taken them).

This is getting absolutely ridiculous.

I really am starting to hate this team.

Now Batting: WFB... Are You SERIOUS???

2008-04-29T21:14:00.000-07:00

With Brad Wilkerson actually having a decent day, John McLaren decides to pinch-hit Willie Bloomquist for him in the 9th. Yes, the M's had just taken the lead on an Adrian Beltre 3-run bomb. And Richie walked ahead of him. McLaren put Cairo in to pinch run for Sexson, and then unexplicably pulled a heating-up Wilkerson for a woeful Willie Bloomquist. Seriously -- I realize Wilkerson's having a tough start to the season, and I'm on the bandwagon for replacing him sooner rather than later, but Bloomquist as a pinch hitter? At that moment in the game -- yeah, the M's had a 3-run lead already built up, and they still had outs to spare in the 9th -- with the way the 'pen has been shaky lately, a 3-run lead didn't feel comfortable. There were better options.

Greg Norton was on the bench, having just had a couple of successful games. He could've hit for Wilkerson if you REALLY want to ignore Wilkerson's reverse platoon splits. Then, with the lead, stick Willie in RF for defense.

You know things are bad when your manager pinch hits WFB for you. Vidro had some important hits, too, including an RBI double. Maybe the news that Clement and Balentien were not in the Tacoma lineup and that McLaren said they'd both be up "sooner than later" actually helped wake them up. I still think Wlad and Clement are better options, but whatever.

GS52 Watch:

Walked B.J. Upton, but got the save to push Baltimore into first place in the AL East.

Hey -- LOOK! He CAN Bend His Brim!!!

2008-04-22T23:46:00.000-07:00

This might very well be the first photo of George in an Orioles' uniform with his brim bent! Yeah, I know, it's only a spring training/batting practice cap, but hey -- it's a start.

I had the time of my life at the game. It was definitely bittersweet for me going to the enemy bullpen and seeing a friend. Thanks to the awesomeness of George Sherrill (and, of course, Sid too), I got to sit 22 rows up from home plate for his return to Safeco Field. I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- my fandom of George goes well beyond his status as a Mariner player (of course, now being a former Mariner).

It was an awesome game -- Guthrie matched Felix pretty well, and I was very very surprised to see Trembley leave him in there after 100 pitches. I turned to a family friend of the Sherrills (with whom I had the pleasure of spending most of the pre-game with, to which and gave a guided tour of Safeco) and said "Here comes Walker to face Ibanez -- he's terrible against lefties!"

Well, the decision to leave Guthrie in to intentionally walk Ibanez came back to haunt Trembley -- after walking Beltre to load the bases, I was the lone voice in a sea of Orioles friends and family members (okay, there were some M's fans to the side of me -- but I was sitting in the O's players' seats) chanting "Fra-ank Tho-mas (clap clap, clapclapclap)!" when Vidro came to the plate (in the spirit of good ol' Lookout Landing mockery).

Needless to say, I was quite happy that the M's didn't have to face George tonight in my presence. After all -- my cell phone LCD display got smashed somewhere along the way tonight, and I could barely dial Sid's number a few innings earlier. It would've been tough to try and put the "Hey -- don't call Sid when George is pitching" jinx, whether or not my cell phone actually was working.

And this night was even made more awesome by the fact that I was able to take my son along with me and share a once-in-a-lifetime experience. It was fun for him being able to talk to George in the 'pen, I'm sure, and getting to hang out with one of Brian Roberts' relatives (a 4-year-old close enough to his age -- the only kid I've met that actually could keep up with my son's energy level and not be put off by his crazy silliness).

I heard in the post-game show that Felix had caught that nasty bug going around the clubhouse (and, well, my house, too). He got off to a slow start, but found the strike zone and while not nearly at full kingly strength. It was good enough and -- like Bedard's Opening Day start -- he showed his aceness by being able to pitch through adversity when he didn't have his greatest stuff.

I sure felt like a king being there...

Jeez. It's late. I'll have many more pictures in the coming days. I may not ever get to experience a baseball game like that one again. What a night!

Rohrbaugh, Jimenez dominate

2008-04-11T08:44:00.000-07:00

It's early in the year, but the Rainiers rotation certainly looks impressive so far. Robert Rohrbaugh got his first start of the new season last night and threw 6 shut-out innings, allowing only 3 hits, no walks and getting 5 Ks. A fly-ball pitcher, Rohrbaugh might be expected to do well in April in the spacious confines of Cheney Stadium. But the wind was blowing out last night (or out to right center), but the Grizzlies simply couldn't get solid contact off of him.

Even the outfield fly balls were pop-ups, with Wlad calling off Chen for one and Hulett making the catch in front of Brent Johnson on another.
Ivan Ochoa was the only Grizzly who had a couple of good swings - he picked up a couple of singles on the night. Scott McClain squared up a couple of pitches on Rohrbaugh, but had a line-out and a fly out for his efforts.

Rohrbaugh is basically Ryan Feierabend if you take away 3 MPH on his fastball. As Feierabend's 'stuff' is not exactly eye-popping, that should tell you something about Rohrbaugh. The guy isn't just another in the long line of Jamie Moyer clones the M's drafted, he's trying to get guys out with Jamie's arsenal. Seriously. His FB was varied last night, but he threw one of them at 82 MPH. Moyer himself might throw faster than that in the 8th inning. He generally worked between 84-86, but got up in the high 80s occasionally and hit 90 one time.

All of this is to say that the reason Rohrbaugh is not well thought of in prospect circles is... valid. If Feierabend has little room for error, Rohrbaugh has none. And yet, the guy's been successful at every stop so far. My guess is that if he wants a real shot at the majors, he'll have to improve his command a bit. It's tough - get too much of the plate with an 84MPH fastball, and you'll get annihilated. Walk too many with an 84MPH fastball, and people will encourage you to explore different career options. He's been in the 2.5-3BB/9IP range historically, but last night's no-walk performance may be a great harbinger of improved command as he settles in at the AAA level.

A lot of people like to make fun of the Grizzlies line-up, and given that these are the guys who couldn't make the SF Giants MLB roster, there's a grain of truth there. But while the line-up isn't exactly littered with great MLB prospects, it's clearly not a bad AAA line-up. Scott McClain hit 31 HRs at this level last year, and hit at least 28 HRs in AAA five times (for four teams). He also hit 39 HRs for the Seibu Lions in NPB. You all know that Justin Leone's a quality AAA slugger, and OF John Bowker's coming off a year of .307/.363/.523 in the Eastern League last year (he's the closest they've got to a prospect). On paper, they may be a better AAA line-up than the Rainiers. The best on the Rainiers are better than the best on the Grizzlies, and clearly have better MLB prospects, but the Grizzlies have fairly impressive depth.

I mention this to give added context for Cesar Jimenez's jaw-dropping performance. Jimenez came in to start the seventh and promptly struck out the side on 12 pitches. He faced the heart of the order, and got Leone, McClain and Brett Harper (.296/.350/.500 last year in the eastern league) easily. He started the eighth by striking out Eliezer Alfonzo, then K'ing Bowker. Bowker was the only player to work the count and foul off a couple of pitches, but in the end he couldn't lay off a nasty change. Julio Cordido was the last man to face Jimenez, and actually managed to put the ball in play... a meek pop-up to 1B Bryan LaHair.

The left-handed Jimenez faced 4 righties and 2 lefties - the fact that his change-up is as tough on righties as lefties may actually hurt his chances of making a return to the majors; Jimenez isn't a LOOGY. He's done fine versus lefties so far, but he's not a George Sherrill or Arthur Rhodes type of pitcher. If he makes it, it'll have to be as a set-up guy who can get righties or lefties (sort of the role Ryan Rowland-Smith finds himself in...finally... for Seattle). With Eric O'Flaherty struggling, he may get a chance this year. Arthur Rhodes may be one place ahead in the queue, but Rhodes' health at this stage is always a question.

Jon Huber finished the game out by allowing a run on a hit, a walk and a wild pitch.

The offensive 'star' of this 2-1 victory was Wlad Balentien, who followed up his grand slam on Wednesday with a 2-4 performance last night. He knocked in the first run with a line drive smash double to left. He actually hit the ball so hard that he was very nearly thrown out at second; a neat slide helped him avoid the tag, but the ball beat him to the base handily. Wlad's going to be fine, and his slow start wasn't all that concerning to the R's.

Matt Tuiasosopo, on the other hand, continues to look a bit overmatched. He went 0-3, and is now 1-19 on the year. He struck out twice and popped up on the infield. I know Churchill at Prospect Insider is still high on him, so perhaps there's no need for panic, but as someone who's been a bit circumspect on Tui for years, uh, yeah, I'm a little worried. He's still young, but without some power, and without a better showing against high minors righties, it's going to be tough to stick as a corner defender. One thing he's shown in his MiLB career is a willingness to listen to coaching and a real aptitude for learning and improving. He's not someone who's gotten frustrated by some seriously frustrating spells in AA, and he's improved each year (particularly in plate discipline). I'm sure he'll get better, but he's got a long way to go.

Four for Four...

2008-04-08T11:45:00.001-07:00

The last three coming against our beloved Mariners.

See -- We told you George was good!

But it's not because of the brim. Bend it, dude, bend it!

(Photo from MLB.com -- Rob Carr/AP)

So...Ryan Feierabend?

2008-04-04T10:24:00.000-07:00

Ryan Feierabend pitched one of his best games at the AAA level in yesterday's opening day game. 6IP, 0R, 4H, 3BB and 7Ks. Where'd this come from?

Well, it's not from any new pitches. He was his normal three-pitch self last night, with his FB just the same as it was last year - from 85 to touching 90, but mostly 87-88 or so. His change-up was around 78, which is what the pitchfx data shows.

So how does a guy with standard platoon splits shut down a decent line-up stacked with righties?

First, it looked like he used the change-up much more than the curve. That's actually pretty similar to his M.O. vs. righties in the big leagues, but it was noticeable that the curve was a show-me pitch that he'd leave off the plate. That willingness to work off the plate showed up both in his higher than normal walk total and in his very low SLG percentage against. Remember, this is the same guy who allowed righties to slug over .600 in the majors, and who allowed PCL righties to slug .463 against him in Tacoma last year.

So clearly, he was able to improve the deception on the change-up last night. It's either that or he's willing to use it a lot more. Ryan's pitchfx data show something interesting - he got swinging strikes (the type most likely to stay consistent from year to year) on 13.6% of his change-ups last year, and gave up a home run on only 1 of 206 pitches thrown. His fastball induced swinging strikes only 3.5% of the time, and he gave up 4 HRs in 352 pitches. He was in the strike zone about the same with both pitches - he threw called balls on roughly 34-35% of both FBs and Changes.

From these data, and from his experience giving up 9HRs in less than 50 IP, I'd say Ryan may be learning to trust his change-up a lot more, and to avoid giving the hitter a hitter's pitch even in 2-0, 3-1 counts. His FB isn't good enough to blow by people, and if he wants to be successful, he's going to have to use the change-up a ton, and he's going to have to put the FB on the corners. Sure, this is true for every pitcher. But Feierabend's start last night showed that he doesn't have to be a 2 BB/9IP pitcher to succeed; that approach may actually PREVENT him from succeeding. This isn't a case where he wasn't mixing his pitches before - he was. But the Cha Seung Baek path to (FIP) success isn't going to work here, so he's got to make a change (ha!). So far, so good.

The hitting star was Yung-Chi Chen, who put a charge into a Greg Smith pitch and pulled a double pretty high off the wall in left center. He also had a single and a successful-if-uneventful night in the field. I'm pulling for the guy. Nice photo of him in the Tribune's photo slide show here, and stay tuned here or at Prospect Insider for photos from last night - Positive Paul got some great shots.

Matt Tuiasosopo apparently looked great in BP, but looked absolutely lost in his first AAA AB (a strikeout). He came back with a couple of better ABs, but still looked a bit overmatched. I'm sure there was a lot of pressure on him as his parents and numerous siblings were in attendance - gotta be nice to play in Washington again for the first time since he was at Everett.

2008 Rainiers Season Preview

2008-04-01T20:10:00.000-07:00

I know, I know, we're all watching King Felix's 2008 debut, but since Opening Day at Cheney is fast approaching, it seems like a decent time to get to know the team this year.

As Mike Curto noted, the Rainiers (and new minor league director Greg Hunter) have signed a number of pretty solid minor league veterans in an effort to avoid 'rushing' prospects quite as much and to help the farm clubs actually win some games. This means that the Rainiers (and other teams) won't quite be the team that prospecters love (and everyone else hates); it means they're going to try and win a bit more.

Perhaps the best example is Kevin Witt, the long-time MiLB slugger who figures to split time at 1B with long-time Rainiers farmhand Bryan LaHair. Witt hit 36 HRs in back-to-back seasons in the Rays and Cards systems a few years ago, and made it up to Tampa for a cup of coffee in 2006. In 2007, he opted to try NPB and set out for Japan. Sadly for Witt, Japan kicked his ass. After 40 games of .174/.267/.348, it was back to the states to regroup. So: he's not exactly 'hot' right now, and he's got a lifetime .267 OBP in 146 MLB games. That said, he's a far sight better than the random MiLB first basemen the Rainiers have found in years past - Aaron Rifkin, Todd Sears, Andy Barkett, those guys. All in all, he's got a decent shot to equal AJ Zapp's production from 2004 and an outside shot to become the next Bucky Jacobsen-style quasi-prospect/folk hero.
Witt hits lefty, so he can't really platoon with LaHair. There's no doubt Witt is the more productive hitter, so either the R's want Witt to DH or they're starting to give up on LaHair and his brutal platoon splits.

The 2B slot should be manned by Yung-Chi Chen, the Taiwanese prospect who lost almost all of 2007 to injury. Given his performance in the Arizona Fall League, it's easy to be bullish about Chen's 2008. He's got gap power, makes contact and can play several positions on the infield. Many label him Willie Bloomquist's asian twin for his 'good at a few things, but not good enough to be, y'know, a GOOD player' style of game, but I think he could be poised to make a leap to MLB-quality hitter. Dave Cameron and others worry that his 2B defense won't be good enough to carry a so-so bat, and that's something to watch. Either he improves and becomes a .300/.340/.460 hitter in AAA, or Cameron's right and he's a future 24th-25th man on someone's bench.

The shortstop position was a killer for the Rainiers last year, and the step down from Asdrubal Cabrera to Oswaldo Navarro continues to be piss me off. Not only is Navarro's defense much worse than Cabrera's (I'm hoping it gets better this year, and some of his incompetence was bad luck. C'mon regression to the mean!), but he struggled to a .632 OPS at the plate. Not only that, but his OPS came UP to .632 thanks to a half-decent July and August. To push Navarro, the Rainiers went out and signed Mark Kiger who had been in the Mets org last year. Kiger isn't a big-time slugger, so don't expect an Andy Green-style breakout, but he's an extremely patient hitter whose ISO-patience is over .100 in 6 minor league seasons. That's key, as the Rainiers didn't figure to get too many walks from Chen/Navarro/LaHair or even Witt. Kiger also plays 3B, which leads us to the hot corner....

3B is a position in flux, as Matt Tuiasosopo figures to take over in the not-too-distant future. If Tui doesn't make the club to begin with, the Rainiers will go with a combination of Kiger and org vets Ronnie Prettyman and Brant Ust. The latter two have zero prospect value, but Ust is handy as a super-sub to play 1B, 2B or 3B as needed, and Prettyman has a funny name.

The outfield is where things get more interesting. Obviously, the big star and now one of the M's best prospects is Wladimir Balentien. The Curacao native figures to get some time at all three OF positions now that Adam Jones isn't patrolling CF, and since Charlton Jimerson is frozen in amber on the M's bench. Wlad's played CF before, and played some in spring training this season. This is obviously a huge year for Balentien professionally; most expect him to make the M's roster at some point this year, much like Jones last year. Balentien has cut his K rate dramatically thanks to improved pitch recognition. The days of 1K per 3ABs are long gone, and if Wlad's improvement continues, he make M's fans forget about losing Adam Jones.... a bit. Next to Wlad will be former Yankees prospect Bronson Sardinha. I've said it before, but Sardinha is what Matt Tuiasosopo sees in his nightmares - both were highly regarded prep shortstops, and both started out great in the low minors, flashing some power to balance out poor glove work. Sardinha moved to 3B in 2004, but promptly made 43 errors between A+ and AA, which necessitated a move to the outfield. While he's OK out there, the power that was so evident in the short-season NYPL never really translated to the high minors, at least not regularly. If I sound pessimistic about Tui, and I suppose I am compared to many, it's because I'm worried he may be a slightly larger Sardinha. Of course, Sardinha's only 25, so he's got time to get back on track. He clearly needed to get out of the Yankees org, where he's been bouncing between AA and AAA for 2 years.
Finally, there's the tragic figure of Jeremy Reed. We all know the story - lauded prospect, amazing plate discipline, sizzling MLB call-up in 2004.... and then a combination of meh batspeed, injuries and what have to be some confidence issues conspired to leave him as a potential bust struggling to revive his career at age 26-27. Reed played quite well in 2007, at least away from Cheney. If he's able to either improve his play at home or versus lefties, he'll still have a modicum of value. If not, well, welcome to the life of itinerant minor league free agent.

The catching spot is basically unchanged - uber-prospect Jeff Clement and org-fave Rob Johnson figure to split time behind the plate. Clement's down to work on his defense, but he's still got a bit to prove at the plate as well. Clement was very slow to start last year and had trouble with some pitchers, leading many scouts to doubt his batspeed. He appeared to assuage those concerns with his second half (and his away splits), but he'd make me a lot more comfortable if he can get his SLG comfortably over .500 and/or prove that his freakish reverse platoon splits weren't just a fluke. If he's really a dominant hitter versus lefties, and just got unlucky versus righties last year, look out. The entire M's fanbase is rooting for you, Jeff. Let's put ANY doubts about your hitting prowess to rest.

The pitching staff is a mix of old and new, but one thing the Rainiers *always* seem to have room for is the MLB vet who hasn't pitched in a while who's trying to make it back to the show. A few years ago, it was Kevin Appier. Last year, it was Jim Parque. Though the track record isn't any better for these guys than it was for Jesse Foppert, the Rainiers decided to make room for Denny Stark, who last pitched competitively in 2005 (and 'competitively' may be a bit generous, given his stats that year). Long-time Rainiers/M's fans may remember Stark from his 2001 season when he went 14-2 with a 2.37 ERA for the Rainiers (jeebus was that 2001 team good). The next season, he and Brian Fuentes were traded to Colorado for...Jeff Cirillo. Stark pitched quite well for the Rockies in 2002, going 11-4, though his poor command and lack of an out-pitch were clear red flags. Well, those peripherals matter, and Stark never really had success again, though injuries clearly did their part as well. We shall see.

The fan favorite will probably be R.A. Dickey, the rule 5 pick-up from the Twins. After trading Jair Fernandez for him to avoid losing Dickey when they couldn't find room on the MLB roster, the knuckleballer is back to the PCL, where he's the reigning pitcher of the year. He's been very good at this level and now moves to a severe pitcher's park. Clearly, he's someone the M's may look to if the big club suffers some injuries.

Ryan Feierabend is back again to try to learn an outpitch; he was solid for Tacoma last year, but was demolished in a major league call-up. He'll have to either reduce his BBs even more to try to have a Carlos Silva-style career or avoid the centered pitches and lower his HRs allowed. He'd be facing something of a make or break year if he wasn't so damned young (22).

Robert Rohrbaugh is another in a long line of soft-tossing control artists, but is slightly different in that he's a righty. Ergo, he's in the Jorge Campillo class of pitchers as opposed to the Moyer/Livingston/Feierabend group. The ex-Clemson tiger impressed in his half-season last year, though his BB/9 and K/9 are damned close to Feierabend, meaning the same sorts of caveats that apply to Ryan's arsenal apply to Rohrbaugh. Robert is also 2 years older than Feierabend, so...

The final spot in the rotation is most likely going to be filled by Philip Barzilla, the ex-Rice Owls closer who started 18 games for Round Rock last year. Barzilla's another guy who doesn't really get strike-outs, but walks a few more than Rohrbaugh and Feierabend, so... yeah. He's roster filler.

Still, he's somewhat valuable in that he'll allow Cesar Jimenez to move back to the bullpen, a role that he's had some success in both in the Venezuelan Winter League and in the low-minors. The M's tried him as a starter, but something about the longer outings didn't work so well for him. Not only were his strikeouts down significantly (along with his velocity), he was also much more of a fly ball pitcher. As a reliever, the lefty can increase his FB velo from 88 or so to 90, and hopefully use a moderately tricky delivery and a solid change-up to be a very poor man's George Sherrill for Tacoma. Despite being around for many years, he'll be 23 this season.

Sean White also pitched well in Venezuela, and figures to be a very solid right hander out of the bullpen. His velocity's a bit better than Jimenez's, and he's also a *severe* GB pitcher, so he's one to watch this year. If Sean Green ever goes down, the M's have his similarly-named twin in AAA. That said, White turns 27 this month, so if he wants to have an impact with the M's, he needs to take a step forward now - he can start by cutting down on the walks.

Thanks for reading this far. Watch as the M's shake up the minor league rosters and render this useless tomorrow....
I'll be at the game sitting right behind the plate, and my coblogger will be taking photos, so stay tuned!

[edited 4/2/08]
Churchill's got the official roster here, so I better add something about a couple of other players...

First, Andy Baldwin will move up from AA and pitch in the rotation for Tacoma. Baldwin was acquired in the Jamie Moyer deal from Philadelphia, and pitched at Oregon State back in 2004. He's not had the best success in either org, but his walk totals are so low that they constitute a real skill. Similar to Cha Seung Baek, Baldwin's the kind of pitcher who won't wow anyone with his stuff, and he's given up a ton of hits both in the Florida State League and Southern League. In this ballpark, with this team, look for his stats (ERA, W/L) to take a step forward. He'll still be the same pitcher, and he's not that young (this'll be his age 25 season), but given the park and defense, his numbers *should* be better.

Mark Kiger is apparently NOT on the roster, so forget about his delicious OBP and replace that with Tug Hulett (who I really should've talked about before). Acquired for Ben Broussard from Texas, Hulett is basically the exact same guy as Kiger. He's got great patience and thus he's got a career MiLB career OBP of .398, but has no power (thus his career MiLB SLG of .384). If he can man the SS position competently, he'll add the on-base skills that the line-up needs.

Roy Corcoran will be the closer, or one of them, once he returns from taking JJ Putz's roster spot while Putz recovers from Costochondritis.
Corcoran closed for Albuquerque last year in the PCL, and though he gets more Ks than most of the other Tacoma relievers, isn't that special. He's got poor command, as evidenced by his 1:1 K/BB ratio in the majors. The best thing about the guy is his extreme GB ratio, which results in his freakishly low HR/9 ratio despite pitching in the bandbox that is Albuquerque. At nearly 61% GBs last year, Corcoran is another Sean Green clone - and another GB pitcher that Bill Bavasi simply couldn't say no to.

There shall be no waiting period at 3B, as Matt Tuiasosopo will be the third baseman for Tacoma. Tui is a great athlete, and was only 21 last year, but his lack of contact and power bodes.... poorly as of right now. Who know, maybe the guy will take a leap forward and put it all together. It's also possible that his home park will obscure even moderate progress. The M's spent big on Tui in the draft, and scouts still love everything about him from his physical frame to his approach. We'll see.

One more notable player - Joe Woerman will try and figure out what the organization wants him to do. Woerman, originally from Everett, was a great (if old for his league) reliever in the midwest league with K rates over 14, and manageable walk rates. The M's shifted him to the rotation at AA last year, and while he limits hits and can miss a bat or two, the results weren't great. I'd guess the M's are shifting him back to the pen, which makes a lot more sense. His arsenal is suited more to closing, and he may get a chance to close a bit with Corcoran in Seattle for the near future.

That's it - see you at the ballpark tomorrow.

Breaking News: GS52 LIVES!!!

2008-03-26T13:32:00.000-07:00

No link yet, but Sid just mentioned that George will keep #52 while in Baltimore. Unlike a certain ~$50 million thief (yes, I'm still bitter), George actually respected his new teammate and decided against approaching Jon Leicester about taking #52, and has worn #51 during spring training instead. Today, however, Leicester refused his assignment to AAA and became a free agent, freeing up #52 on the Orioles' available jersey number list.

And George promptly made it unavailable again.

Now we just need to figure out a better Entrance Song than what they rarely played at Safeco last year. I like Sid's suggestion of a Clutch song. Like "The Mob Goes Wild!"

Free At Last, Free At Last!!!!

2008-03-18T10:29:00.000-07:00

George Sherrill is FREE!!!

I can't put down in words how incredibly excited I am right now. These past four years have been intense, exciting, frustrating, and fun.

No, Mariners Morsels isn't finished. The design will change, sure, as soon as I get home.

But, finally, and officially, the Free George Sherrill campaign declares VICTORY!!!!

Congratulations, George! You deserve it. I just hope Baltimore has enough ninth-inning leads for you to protect.

My Roster, come March 31st...

2008-03-03T13:35:00.001-08:00

As of right now, knowing what we know RIGHT NOW about everyone, here's the team I'd take with me to Seattle for Opening Day:

Starting Offense:

CF: Ichiro
LF: Wilkerson
RF: Balentien
1B: Sexson
2B: Lopez
SS: Yuni
3B: Beltre
C: Joh
DH: Raul

Bench:

1B/DH/2B backup: Vidro
MI/UTIL/Pinch-Runner: WFB
C: Burke
4^th OF: Jimerson
Pinch-hitter/Corner IF/EMERGENCY OF: Morse

SPs:

Bedard
Felix
Silva
Washburn
Tits

RPs:

CL: Putz
LHRP: Potatoes (Apostrophe/EOF)
LHRP: Hyphen (RRS)
RHRP: Morrow
RHRP: Green
#6 starter, Long RP: Dickey

Any thoughts?

It's About "Frick"-in' Time!

2008-02-19T17:23:00.000-08:00

Congratulations, Dave Niehaus! A very well-deserved and long-overdue honor.

Happy Pitchers & Catchers Day!!!!

2008-02-13T07:54:00.000-08:00

In honor of Pitchers and Catchers day and my gift to my fellow "lovers" (lovers of the Seattle Mariners, that is -- and yes, my wife borderline accuses me of cheating on her w/my passion for the Mariners sometimes...), here is a recent shot of Safeco Field perfect for use as a desktop wallpaper:

If you're interested, I'm selling prints. Send me an e-mail (paul*at*paulmphotography.com) to let me know what you want. I just printed a 13x19 of this shot, and I'm about to place a frame order, too. I'd be happy to order a few more frames!

It is Finished.

2008-02-08T13:13:00.001-08:00

The trade, that is. Not my fandom of George, of course. Here's to hoping he can grab #52 away from John Leicester :-) And the closer's job. If not, then the Free George Sherrill campaign will continue.

You better believe I'll welcome him back when Baltimore comes to town.

To Laugh, or to Cry?

2008-01-27T23:09:00.000-08:00

A month ago, with the arrival of Carlos Silva and his subsequent thievery of George Sherrill's jersey number, I said good-bye to GS52. In the next day or so, he's evidently going to get a phone call informing him of his trade to Baltimore, and I'll be forced, once again, to say good-bye. I was hoping that phone call would be from Mr. Silva -- after all, he said he'd hook him up when I asked him at FanFest.

Honestly, the Free George Sherrill campaign will not come to an end. He may be leaving Seattle, but he's not shed of my fandom. It's quite possible that he's being banished to an even worse-run organization than the Mariners'. Also, with Boston and NY as well as a seriously up-and-coming Tampa Bay team in the same division, it's likely he won't pitch in the playoffs any time soon. I'm not sure, either, whether Baltimore would consider using him as their closer. So, with both of those things working against him, the campaign continues. Yes, my favorite player on my favorite team is about to be traded.

That doesn't mean my fandom comes to an end...

Good Bye GS52!

2007-12-20T16:36:00.000-08:00

If I didn't have enough of a reason to hate the Carlos Silva signing, I do now. It's not good enough for him to steal nearly $50 million from the Mariners -- noooooo. Now he goes and steals #52 from George. Ugh.

I will never ever ever call him "CS52".

//Wonders how good George would look in Orioles Orange...
///No, GS52 hasn't been traded, yet. At least I haven't heard anything, yet. I just can't call him "GS52" anymore without confusing even more people (and certainly "GS" looks a lot like "CS" so I don't want to even think about being misinterpreted...)...
////BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Now that's more like it...

2007-12-18T10:34:00.000-08:00

Glad to know the M's are still the stupid team I somehow know and love...

Survived, so far...

2007-12-06T10:30:00.000-08:00

Well, it appears that Bavasi survived the Winter Meetings without completely devastating the team. Of course, there's still time, but I'll consider this progress. In fact, I'll give him a pretty big pat on the back! I'm a little excited about the minor move he made today -- grabbing 33-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey from the Rule 5 Draft:

As Super-Sleuth marc w found and linked in the comments on USSM, Jamie Burke was his teammate in 2006.

In spite of rumors, and his name being thrown around, too, George Sherrill is still a Mariner. He's due his first arbitration (as a "Super Two"), and since Bavasi has yet to actually take a player to arbitration, I expect a 2 or 3 year deal, like those given to Putz, Lopez, and Betancourt. I'd LOVE to see the dollar figures similar to what those other guys got, but everything I've heard isn't quite that high. I'm thinking 3 years, $6 million is probably fair, but I'd be surprised if the M's gave him that.

Oh, and I get asked a lot what I think about the possibility of George being traded. I think I speak for everyone w/the "Free George Sherrill" campaign when I say that I'm actually OK with it. Ultimately the campaign will be successful when George is given a proper role on a team who appreciates his talent and utilizes his skill as either an important setup man (read: NOT as a LOOGY) or a closer. We hope it's with the Mariners, but with J.J. Putz entrenched in the closer's role and the M's hesitation a) to call him up in the first place and b) give him consistent, increasingly-more-challenging at-bats versus righties, I'm not convinced it's his best organization. And, with some of the contract numbers I've heard, it's clear they don't want to pay him properly either...

If he's a part of the package that ultimately lands a guy like Santana or Bedard, then I'd be happy. Although, wait. I don't want him exiled to an even worse organization than the Mariners -- Baltimore -- but they're in need of a closer, and might actually use him properly. And the commute for his parents in Tennessee would be much easier, too. But that his name is being mentioned in those trade packages -- for players of that quality -- is definitely encouraging. Indeed, other teams may see his value more than the Mariners do. Ultimately, if George is happy, I'm happy. Yeah, I'm sure he's happy to be on an MLB roster, making an MLB salary, but his goals are bigger than that, and he's better than just "roster filler."

Please, Bill, DON'T PANIC!!!!

2007-12-04T21:08:00.000-08:00

Look, I realize you've got a tough job to do. You've undoubtedly got pressure from the suits above you to walk away from Nashville with some starting pitching, if not a few other pieces. Dude, though, don't pull what you did last year, and trade a valuable asset for someone who was just about to be non-tendered (and, hence, available for only the inked dollar amount on a contract, not a valuable player). Please Please Please learn from your mistakes. Just because Plans A, B, C, and D don't work out -- DON'T PANIC!!!! Be patient, pave some in-roads, really decide what it is you want and make a reasonable deal when you're not downing drinks in the bar...

There's still time to evaluate the market and figure out who you really want. Edwin Jackson is a good idea -- but think about what Tampa wants, and what fits best. While Wlad might be a bit much, it's not completely unreasonable. Don't just get rid of Jose Lopez to get rid of him. Ben Broussard, too. You already messed up with the Guillen situation, although I'm sure the folks above you probably influenced that decision quite heavily.

Kick the tires some more on a few guys -- Bartolo Colon, for example. Sweeten the pot on Santana -- think creatively.

But please, O please do NOT make another Horacio Ramirez-level mistake...

Pre-Thanksgiving Thankfulness...

2007-10-22T22:20:00.000-07:00

Seeing Ichiro raise the 12th Man flag at Qwest Field yesterday, especially with the way he exploded in joy, waiving the towel, and really cheering hard, reminded me of how thankful I am that the M's don't have to resolve that question this offseason.

They have a lot to worry about, but, thankfully, Ichiro's status isn't on that list.

Yeah, things probably won't go like we all want this offseason. I'm not sure how many people really wanted the status quo with McLaren and Bavasi. Still, the status quo with Ichiro is just fine by me. Things could be a lot worse...

A Hearty Welcome to Hardball Review!

2007-10-16T08:54:00.000-07:00

Hey - I just noticed a new blog in town. One of my blog-o-sphere mateys, known as "etowncoug" and a few other folks have just opened shop over at Hardball Review. Etown/Brent has written a fine article on Jose Lopez, and honestly, I think we're sharing a lot of the same thoughts:

The long term fix to Lopez is not as simple as a change of scenery. Lopez needs find a way to hide his weaknesses. Waiting for a pitch that he can drive would be an excellent start. I am extremely skeptical of any player whose breakout ability depends so heavily on his pitch recognition ability to go from well below average to above average. This isn’t going to happen overnight and until this improves I see his ceiling as an average player.

Jose is one of two players that I believe have much more value to another club than they do the Mariners (the other being Brandon Morrow, who I believe will only be used as a bullpen arm in this organization, since they're not going to be patient enough to give him the 1-2 years in the minors that he would need to truly become an effective starter, and I don't believe Morrow's talented/polished enough to pull off becoming an effective starter over the winter and through spring training -- but I digres...). That doesn't mean they should trade him away just to trade him, like they did with Carlos Guillen and to a certain extent Rafael Soriano. But indeed, Lopez still has enough upside that his struggles in the second halves of 2006 and 2007 are just minor bumps in the road.

It's easy to forget that he's only 23 years old. There's still a lot of potential for him to mature into an above-average second baseman, but again -- as Brent mentions -- until he improves on his pitch recognition and becomes more selective on the pitches he tries to drive, he's not going to help the team with his bat. His glove certainly took some major strides forward, and he can still improve in that area of his game. His bat, though, is quite a ways behind. I believe he's talented enough to pull it together, but it may take more time than this organization is willing to give him.

It's Over!

2007-10-07T11:49:00.000-07:00

Well, except for a few teams, the 2007 is officially over. The Hot Stove League, then, for the Mariners is in full effect. With that, I have a few questions...

1) If A-Rod opts out of his contract, will Texas still be on the hook? My guess is that they won't be. That may not be good for the Mariners. If he ends up in Anaheim, it could be a double-whammy...

2) So, Jeff Pentland is the only coach to survive McLaren's scythe. What exactly is it about Jeff Pentland that deemed him worthy of being spared? Will he remain as hitting coach, or will he slide over to another coaching spot?

3) Where in the heck will Bavasi find starting pitching? He's not thinking about what USSM and other folks are thinking -- tapping into Tampa Bay's resources. I can almost guarantee that. Can he make a worse move than the one made for Horacio Ramirez? Anything's possible...

Epic Save of Ruthian Proportions...

2007-09-27T22:00:00.000-07:00

So, GS52's career Save #4 comes on the hand of a baserunning blunder similar to Babe Ruth's 1926 World Series ending boo-boo.

I'll take it...

Giftwrapped

2007-09-18T23:16:00.000-07:00

Congrats on Save #3, George! Not that the save stat is hugely meaningful, but I'll take a 3K performance, leading to your third career save as a nice gift for my birthday tonight. Here's to many more of each (saves for you and birthdays for me) for us in the future!

I'm baffled...

2007-09-14T14:01:00.000-07:00

I'm not nearly as smart as a lot of people in regards to baseball stats, but this statement of opinion from a local beat reporter (who I actually have a ton of respect for) always always always grates on me:

So, no sympathy vote for Santana. He'll have to raise his win total substantially...to have a legit Cy Young shot.

I mean, yeah, Cy Young voters look at win totals and all, but still, I'll never be able to figure out how a pitcher can substantially raise his win totals. Unless that pitcher hits like Albert Pujols, and manages, too, so that he can put himself into games where he's facing Jake Woods as opposed to Jake Peavy, the pitcher has absolutely no control over his win/loss total. Not even the ace-est of aces pitches very many shutouts these days, and a pitcher is considered pretty much HOF material if he only surrenders 1-2 runs in 6-7 innings every game. In the AL especially, pitchers have absolutely no control over the number of runs their offenses score. None. Zip. Nil. Nada. So, even if a pitcher throws 245 innings (35 starts at 7 innings a piece over an entire season) and has an ERA of 1.28 (1 run/game), he'd still have to have his team score over two runs a game for 57% of those games to reach twenty. Behind a VERY streaky, inconsistent offense (as the M's have shown all year), that can be a daunting task. Conversely, too, a pitcher who gives up 5 runs in 5-6 innings consistently can also win 20+ games if he's got an offense that scores 6 runs in those games.

I'm using extremes to make a point, sure. But it's still clear in my mind that a pitcher has very very, very, very little, if any at all, control over his win/loss record. Yeah, generally, a bad pitcher will pile up the losses, and a good pitcher will pile up the wins. But you can't tell if a pitcher's bad or good by those piles...

Buy Austin's CD!!!

2007-09-04T13:13:00.001-07:00

Just got this link from Churchill, who also added it to his (much more widely visited) site, but you have to check out Austin Dirkx' newly-released CD. I'm currently listening to the demo playlist, and from what I'm hearing, I love it!

Unlike a lot of other artists whose CDs you wonder why you've bought, when really you may like only 2 or 3 songs, if you're lucky, and the rest of the CD is filler that pretty much all sounds the same, my initial impression of this CD is that while there songs that sound similar, there's enough variety to keep me interested.

Definitely a CD I'd listen to while sipping some Perpetual Merlotion -- perhaps even while working on some photographs. I definitely need to add "Fly Away" to my MP3 player. I think it's my favorite on the CD (that I've listened to on the demo -- I'll order the CD myself when I get home). But, of course, I'm a Simon & Garfunkel freak, and Austin's style has that sort of "chill" feeling that S&G music has. It's a bit raw, certainly, but Austin's definitely got musical talent. I'd grab my bass or keys and jam w/him any day...

Putz-less in Seattle???

2007-08-30T19:55:00.000-07:00

What. The. Heck???

Is there something wrong with JJ Putz that the team isn't letting out?

Rick White is not a major league quality pitcher, let alone one that can be counted on in a high-leverage situation. He proved that with the Vlad Guerrero at-bat. He proved it again tonight with a game-losing bases-loaded walk. There's no way he should've pitched tonight, especially in that situation.

I had high hopes for Johnny Mac. I gave him a break for making his managerial debut in historically unique and challenging circumstances. But now, in the middle of a pennant race, when he's been Lou's sounding board during MANY pennant races, I'm cutting him no more slack.

The only excuse for bringing in White in the situations he was brought in over the last couple games (last night was probably OK -- after the game was well out of hand) is if JJ Putz is injured. Even still, Rick White has proven his value -- it's as the top player on the DFA list, followed by Horacio Ramirez.

I mean John McLaren can't be THAT big of an idiot. Can he???

Robert Rohrbaugh

2007-08-28T20:07:00.001-07:00

Robert Rohrbaugh continued his successful run through the PCL on the 26th, giving up 2 runs in 6 innings against the Portland Beavers. Since his ERA's now safely under 3, it may be worth discussing his arsenal/approach.

Rohrbaugh, a 7th rounder out of Clemson, uses a well-located (usually) fastball that sits from the mid to high 90s. In this start, he was everywhere from 82-89 with his fastball. In the early innings, he was very successful at placing it on the corners. He had zero command of his offspeed offerings, resulting in 4 walks in those 6 innings (he's usually something of a low walks/low K guy).
The key to his success is something of a deceptive delivery. While someone like Sherrill uses his arm to hide the ball - and thus get a lot of Ks despite so-so to slightly above average velocity - Rohrbaugh uses his body to deceive hitters. Think of the first part of Tim Lincecum's delivery, where his trunk turns a bit and his throwing hand drops below his waist. The second part of the delivery isn't like Lincecum's at all (whose is?), but that body turn means the ball pops out of nowhere at the end of Rohrbaugh's delivery. This hasn't manifested itself in eye-popping K/9 numbers, but when Rohrbaugh's on, he gets a lot of pop-ups.
What's interesting about Rohrbaugh is his month-to-month splits, both this year and in the past. At the beginning of last year, Rob started in the Cal League, and was an even fly-ball/ground-ball pitcher. As the year went on, he became more of a GB pitcher. The same pattern held at his next stop, in San Antonio, only this time he was only even for one month. This year, he started out as a fly-baller, beforing reverting to his GB tendencies in the month before his promotion. Also, his walks dropped as the year went on. In Tacoma, his walks have again dropped each month, but he's not K'ing many either.
In the majors, he's probably an extreme pitch to contact pitcher who may start off getting a lot of fly balls, but the degree to which he's able to get grounders...that's less clear. Still, he's piqued a lot of interest given his fast start in AAA.

In other news, Baseball Prospectus produced a fascinating list of the teams that have blown the most 3-run leads in MLB history. Tied for #1 - the 1998 Seattle Mariners. I bring up this historical tidbit because in many ways, the '98 M's are the mirror image of this year's crew. That team blew so many leads because its achilles heel was a gut-churning bullpen that included full-seasons from Heathcliff Slocumb and Bobby Ayala. The latter was 1-10 with a HoRam-esque 7.29 ERA. These two 'leading lights' were ably assisted by Paul Spoljaric and Bob Wells, who chipped in with 83 innings of 6+ RA 'pitching.' This meant that despite two starters with sub-4 ERAs (plus Randy Johnson, who was at 4.33), and an offense that scored 859 runs, the team finished 76-85 - despite a pythagorean W/L of 81-80. I have personal memories of that team - as it turns out, typical ones. The first game I ever took my wife too was this one, in which Ken Cloude's best ever MLB game was ruined by Bobby Ayala's meltdown in the 9th. Against Kevin Stocker and the D-rays. The next game we went to was this one, in which the M's nearly blew a 9-1 lead - holding on to beat the Sox 11-10. Bob Wells and Mike Timlin were the culprits this time, with Robin Ventura hitting a grand slam in the 9th, and the Sox putting the tying run in scoring position with only one out. Suffice it to say, it was a nerve-wracking season for M's fans.
This year's team lacks the 1-2-3 punch of Moyer/Fassero/RJ, and a line-up with the best SLG percentage in the AL, but its strength is its bullpen. Everyone's talked a lot about the M's 'pen, and its role in the M's unexpected success - I wonder if it'll change the amount of resources teams deploy on its bullpens. Interesting if a patched-together pen made up of MiLB vets like Green and Putz, plus indie-leaguer George Sherrill is used as a data point to suggest that teams should spend *more* on their pens.

One more thing, the mysterious HR/preventing skill that Washburn had? Yeah, that's disappearing fast. Miguel Batista as the M's most consistent starter? Not so much. Jeff Weaver as lion-in-winter, rejuvenated career success story? Ouch. If the M's are going to make the playoffs, an almost unprecedented percentage of the credit for that fact will go to the pen. This team is *weird*. And I love it.

Familiar Faces [+ bullet points]

2007-08-24T23:04:00.000-07:00

The Rainiers welcomed back two familiar faces today - Cha Seung Baek and Wladimir Balentien.

Baek got the start, and gave up a run in the first on a ground ball single to right. Balentien had a very good shot to get Brady Clark at the plate, but his throw...um, sucked. Hey, he's rusty. In the second, Wlad made amends - he tied it up with a ground ball fielder's choice to score Bryan LaHair.

B aek ran into some trouble in the 5th, loading the bases on a double, a walk and a texas league single to right. At only 59 pitches, the R's pulled the plug. I didn't check the radar, so I think the most likely explanation is that Baek was on a pitch count - he ended one shy of 60. Coming in with one out and the bases loaded.... John Parrish! You never really get rid of pitchers like Parrish, you only hope to contain them somewhere in your minor league system. Despite a severe command problem, Parrish came on with no place to put Paul MacAnulty. MacAnulty apparently felt charitable and swung at a 3-2 pitch around eyebrow level for the second out. The next hitter, Jack Cassel, lined a pitch that LaHair snagged at first (and hey, as much crap as LaHair takes from the big M's 'spect watchers, let me just say this: he's a good defensive first baseman). Nice work, Parrish!

Parrish gave up a run in the 6th on a double, a single, a sac fly, two walks and a groundout. There's the John Parrish M's fans have come to expect.

Brad Thomas came on in the 7th and was absolutely lights out through the rest of the game. In his 3 innings, he gave up 1 hit, 1 walk and struck out 2, including one of the top hitters in the PCL, Brian Myrow.

Balentied finished 1-3 with a walk, a single and an RBI.
Baek went 4 1/3, giving up 5h 1R 1BB 1K. Parrish got the win and Thomas the 3 inning save.

* Robert Rohrbaugh continues to impress, throwing 7 innings of 1R ball this week. His own error scored a run, preventing him from matching Jorge Campillo's 7 shutout innings against Sacramento.
* Speaking of Campillo, the scouting reports are right: His fastball really is only 84-86 MPH. Score one for Dave Cameron, who's been suspicious of a righty who throws mid 80s, tops. Fair enough. His command is impeccable, and he's going to get a call up this September. But he's probably not a long term bet to replace HoRam. Rohrbaugh...well, we'll see. Rob's FB is a bit better, and he's a lefty. His approach seemed to be Washburn-esque this week - throwing well located fastball after well-located fastball, keeping a very good River Cats team off balance. That approach may prove disastrous in the bigs, but who knows. Washburn's approach, on paper, should be disastrous too.
* With Balentien back, and Charlton Jimerson raking, the R's again have a legitimately good AAA outfield. Jeremy Reed is still hitting too - he's at .321/.387/.464 on the month. Good, but not as good as...
* Nick "Freakin'" Green, who's hitting .341/.406/.560 for August. Green went 2-4 with yet another homer tonight. Green was brought up in an LL thread, with a number of people thinking that his hot streak might prove valuable for the M's, esp. given Jose Lopez's struggles. I've consistently said that he's roster-filler, a minor leaguer who had a sub .300 OBP in the Pittsburgh system this year, and a guy who really crapped the bed in his one MLB starting opportunity with Tampa Bay a few years ago. But man, this streak is something else. I'm down with BABIP theory as much as anyone, but holy balls is this guy hitting the ball hard every time. Given the recent USSM discussion on hot streaks, my intellectual side thinks it's silly to expect anything other than his career marks going forward (and those career averages are fairly nasty). But man is it cool to see him come up to bat these days.
* Mike Morse hopefully broke out of a mini-slump (.195 ave. in the past 10 games) with a double down the LF line tonight. He's still a fairly good option as a bench bat for an MLB team, though with Bloomquist's career year, it's pretty clear that opportunity's going to come somewhere else.
* Dave Cameron's got a post up advocating that the M's sign ex-Rainier Brett Tomko, who was DFA'd by the Dodgers. I don't mind the move, but more as insurance in case Baek's return hits a snag. Cameron thinks Tomko is head and shoulders better than Baek, I think the opposite. What do you think? xFIP's with me, the radar guns/scouting reports are with Cameron. This may depend on how you approach a question like this. If you need an out pitch, Baek will not impress you. If you rely heavily on results (or command), then Baek's a better bet. An interesting question, and one with no wrong answer other than 'Horacio Ramirez.'
* Sean White is still technically rehabbing in Tacoma, but I think at this point it's safe to say that whatever 'velocity spike' in the Arizona Fall League led the M's to pick this guy never made it out of Peoria. White's been between 89-92 with his FB in Tacoma, far below his reported 96+ in the fall. He never came close to that with the M's, at least not that I remember. He's an intriguing pitcher, in that he gets a ton of ground balls. But he's just not the guy the front office hyped when they made the trade/rule 5 selection to get him.

M's win again. Unbelievable. This is one of the strangest good teams in recent memory. On the plus side, they're obviously better than the '05 White Sox and '06 Cardinals. On the down side... what? Vidro/Weaver/Batista are key newcomers? Despite three incoming rotation members having lower ERA+ marks than the 3 guys they replaced (who most people thought were terrible). The DH has a Tyner-esque ISO. Felix has been very good, but both injured and also not what we expected after his blazing start. Yes, the bullpen has been almost as good as the White Sox magic-in-a-bullpen crew (Neal Cotts? Cliff Pollitte? Really?), but the offense has carried the team in August. I... I give up trying to figure it out, I'm just enjoying it.

Jorge Campillo says 'Hi.'

2007-08-19T16:36:00.000-07:00

Horacio Ramirez has made sure that discussions about the M's 5th rotation spot are fairly common. Ryan Feierabend hasn't exactly excelled in that role, and while many fans have talked about bringing Robert Rohrbaugh up, many M's insiders (incl. USS Mariner) have cautioned that his stuff simply isn't MLB quality.
The forgotten man in a lot of these discussions is Jorge Campillo. Well, Jorge's doing what he can to make sure his name is included in the never-ending list of guys who could do better than HoRam. With 7 scoreless innings today, Campillo dropped his RA to 3.4 - and he didn't have his best stuff. Despite missing consistently with his change, and despite lowering his WHIP to peg Lou Merloni (yes, it was on purpose), Campillo consistently got out of trouble by getting the first man, and by limiting the extra-base hit. Campillo has pretty sizeable home/road splits, so I should caution that how he's looked in Tacoma is not necessarily how he's looked away, but hey - Tacoma's a decent proxy for Safeco. And let's cut to the chase: I'm much more comfortable with the M's giving Jorge a shot than paying $20 million to give an aged Jose Contreras a shot. Do you need a back-up plan? Of course. But Campillo is pitching his way into this conversation, despite long odds after his injury and removal from the 40 man roster (thankfully, the 40 man roster isn't really a concern with a couple open spots, and with the rosters expanding soon).
The knock on Campillo has been his, well, Rohrbaugh-level stuff. And it's true; he generally doesn't get tons of strike-outs. But if you've followed Cha Seung Baek (or Carlos Silva), you know that there's a place at the back of an MLB rotation for a guy who severely limits walks. Campillo's been quite stingy with the free pass at home (1.41/9 coming into today), and compensates for his lack of an outpitch to righties by going for the strikeout more against lefty hitters. I think his weird reverse-platoon splits (at least as far as strikeouts go) is one of the reasons people underrate him. It's easy to say it's a statistical fluke, but he's K'd more lefties every single year he's been in the US. At some point, you've got to say it's part of his arsenal, or at least his approach, to go for the K against lefties and to put it in play against righties.

Jose De La Cruz (AKA the Aircraft Carrier) made things interesting by giving up 2 runs in the last 2 innings, and putting the tying run on 3rd in the 9th, but he induced the game ending pop-out from Nick Blasi and picked up the save. Campillo struck out 7 in 7 innings, to go with 3 BBs and just 4 hits.

Dear John:

2007-08-13T18:01:00.000-07:00

Um. Hai.

While I've also noticed how badly Jose Lopez is struggling at the plate recently -- so much so that I've argued with some pretty smart baseball people that it's not entirely illogical to experiment with having Jose Vidro playing second base defensively -- today isn't the day to experiment with that. It's NOT the day to punt infield defense for the sake of any potential offensive gain, when you've got a groundballer like Felix on the mound.

One of my arguments is that as long as you pay attention to the pitcher that's on the mound and see that he's more of an extreme flyballer, the number of balls that Vidro would have to field would decrease, therefore lessening the risk of Vidro missing a ball that Lopez would've gotten to. Well, it's clear to me that you have other things you're paying attention to -- and, well, ignoring...

Not only that, but you're also decreasing the defense quality at third base, by replacing Adrian Beltre with Willie Bloomquist. Unless Adrian's hurting, it's probably a bad idea to give him the night off. I could make some argument for getting Willie's bat into the lineup -- heck, it might even make sense to have him play second. But third base? Taking Adrian out? Ugh.

Please tell Felix to strike everyone out tonight, and be choosy with his fastball.

KTHXBYE!!!

Save #2!!!

2007-08-10T11:27:00.001-07:00

While I was away from the TV yesterday, mostly, watching Joey's final track meet of the season, I was able to 'watch' the game on my cell phone, thanks to the WEP version of GameCast. I was somewhat surprised that Mac left George in for the 9th, when the M's tacked on two more runs in the top of the inning and closed the door on a save opportunity for JJ. I knew that GS52 would've been eligible for the save had he been left in during the 9th, and I was both shocked and happy that it happened.

It was his longest outing since April 18th. Three K's and one walk (and on the GameCast on my cell phone, the AB with the walk was very questionable -- there appeared to be at least one strike that was called a ball, based on the graphic GameCast K zone. I'll have to go back to the game thread reactions to see if anyone commented on that pitch. It wouldn't surprise me to hear from Sid on this issue. Heh.

But whether or not it was a "vultured" save, I'll take it, and congratulate George on his second career save. I know there are more meaningful stats, sabermetrically, but saves mean a lot for player contracts, so huzzah!

What a fine season this lefty's having!

Hank Aaron, I Will Always Love You!

2007-08-08T09:07:00.000-07:00

As of 9 a.m. on Wednesday the 8th of August, I still have yet to watch Barry's 756th home run. If I refuse to turn on the TV, does that mean that HR will never have existed? If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it still make a sound?

While I even took space on this here blog to advocate the Mariners signing Barry Bonds before the 2007 season, I wasn't thrilled with the idea. I just tried to play devil's advocate for a minute to see if there was any logical reason why the M's would consider signing Bonds -- and why he might consider playing in Seattle.

How many other players, historically, have had their career average stats improve THIS much after age 35 (omitting, of course, his 2005 season where he missed basically the entire season, but including 2007 thus far):

OPS - 275 points
OBP - 121 points
SLG - 153 points
BA - 36 points
BB/Season - 61
HR/Season - 10

Even if you filter out the extra 30-ish HRs he hit in 2001, changing the 73 to, say, 45, there's certainly no decline there. And that's why Barry Bonds record will always be tainted in my mind. Just a quick run through the numbers, adding 6x his career average prior to 2001 to his stats from 2000, and I come up with roughly 700 HRs. In my mind, he's still got 56 to go.

I agree with Churchill. It should've been Junior.

Hank Aaron will always be better than Barry Bonds.

Hey, Jose -- Scoscia's in Town!!!

2007-07-30T07:20:00.000-07:00

With Trent dusting off the cobwebs and writing a fine post as to why the M's should not go anywhere near a contract extension for Guillen, neither of us are actually in the mood to see him leave right now, either. At Churchill's Prospect Insider party on Saturday, I brought up the idea of "Selling high" on Guillen, since he's hitting the ball well, kicking butt in the clubhouse (in a good way), and has shown that the TJ surgery didn't stop his awesome arm. We came to the conclusion that if you did that, you're basically giving up on the season.

Guillen's one of the reasons why the 2007 M's are having any sort of success whatsoever against lefty starters. Moving Ibanez out of the 3-hole is another. Heh. But anyway, not only is Guillen performing well, he's also very much leading the charge in the clubhouse. I know the M's are leading the league in overpaying for (and overvaluing) veteran leadership, but in Guillen's case, I'd be willing to be that the M's would lose a lot if they took him out of the clubhouse right now. His bat is hot, hot, hot right now (as is, of course, Beltre's), and he's leading the charge both with his bat and his tongue.

He also hates Mike Scoscia, or so the story goes. Maybe they've patched things up, maybe not. Still, the M's have the best opportunity they've had in years to propel themselves directly into the playoffs. A series win could very well push them over the same hump that reared its ugly head back when the M's couldn't get past the 3-games-over-.500 mark. A series sweep? Yeah, unlikely, but still. In spite of being their real staff ace, Kelvim Escobar has struggled against the M's. They've also seemed to have figured out Jered Weaver's stuff recently, too. And the M's have this knack of dominating tough SPs and struggling vs. weak SPs.

This series is crucial for the M's playoff hopes. It's ironic that it hinges on the non-waiver trade deadline. With T-Rex out of the division, and especially not going to Anaheim, it's time for Guillen to lead the charge and destroy those Angels once and for all!

Fuuuuuudddggggggge

2007-07-26T22:35:00.000-07:00

Yeah, well, rough game for George tonight. But an even rougher night for the offense, again.

Still, had Reitsma been able to get one guy out, and not walk the heck out of the A's, the inning would've been over before Swish got to the plate. Yeah, George served a meatball. Just like JJ's yesterday, though, it was bound to happen. Reitsma's the guy that can't get an out if he tried.

One of the first changes needs to be the DFA of Reitsma. He's clearly not a high-leverage RP anymore. Let Green and GS52 handle those situations, and EOF and Lowe take 'em in the 6th-7th.

And, of course, Beltre went waaaay out of his way to try and grab a foul ball in left field. Where the heck was the LFer??? Right.

They've picked a baaaad time to start slumping.

Ranting and Raving

2007-07-26T14:07:00.000-07:00

Paul invited me to stop by periodically in December and leave my two cents on certain issues and I'm finally getting around to throwing something together. Seven months later. It's been a little while since I've written anything of substance for a blog so bear with me as I'm dusting off the cob webs. I'm hoping this will be a series of short rants over the next week that address certain issues with the Mariners that I think need to be addressed.

I've got to start off with Jose Guillen. Guillen was signed off the free agent scrapheap this offseason and has exceeded expectations on and off the field. That's where the happy warm feelings end. For lack of a better descriptive word, Jose Guillen is an asshole. He's been run out of several teams not for a lack of talent but because of his abrasive personality. Yes, he has been a model citizen this year. Now ask yourself, why? Could it be that after a decade of being run out of a variety of organizations he has finally grown up and changed? Or is it because his body is breaking down, he's getting older and knows that this could be the last chance he has to cash in on a multi-year contract?

While I can't guarantee it, I think the Jose Guillen from the past four months will slowly disappear once he is rewarded with an extension and has a guaranteed paycheck.

Not convinced? Still believe that Guillen's grown up and has now become a model citizen and more than the average to above-average ML right fielder he is? Fine. My above diatribe probably fell on deaf ears. So let me approach this from a different angle. The M's have two of the best OF prospects in major league baseball currently in AAA in Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentin. Wlad will have to be carried on the 25 man roster next season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, where he will easily be the first guy drafted (as long as he's not traded for some mediocre addition in the coming week). Wlad will be 24 years old next season, will cost the league minimum, and has the potential to put up some serious power numbers (he's drawn comparisons to Carlos Lee). Would using two young players in the OF corners be a stretch for the M's? It shouldn't matter but it probably wouldn't be something they'd do. If a guy can produce, why does it matter how old he is? And more importantly, why pay a guy $10 million per season if you can get similar production out of a guy making the league minimum?

Still not convinced? How about 10 more reasons? Jose Cruz Jr., Milton Bradley, Bobby Kielty, Rondell White, Reggie Sanders, Richard Hildago, Trot Nixon, Cliff Floyd, Corey Patterson, and Luis Gonzalez. All ten of these guys figure to be free agents at the end of this year. All ten of these guys are as risky a signing as Jose Guillen was last offseason. Wouldn't rational thought processes suggest that if you were able to catch lightning in a bottle by signing a scrapheap guy cheaply, you might be able to do it again and avoid committing to a guy long-term? Wouldn't letting Guillen walk at the end of the year, offering him arbitration and then collecting the picks while signing a guy like Reggie Sanders or Luis Gonzalez to a one year deal to platoon with Wlad and possibly Adam Jones make a ton of sense?

Hello? Bill? Is this thing on?

Crank up that Hot Seat!!!!!

2007-07-24T20:17:00.001-07:00

Seriously. This team needed to be changed months ago. I can see some hesitation to not want to make changes when things are going well. However, since the All-star break, things are not going well.

A CG from Weaver should've been taken advantage of. But no, instead, he gets charged with a loss. That's a problem! Especially since he is showing signs of actually being a major-league starting pitcher. And a league-average one, even!

Strangely, outside of Felix melting down in Toronto and Ho-Ram pitching on the road, the pitching hasn't entirely been the problem. I'm really actually starting to trust Weaver again.

I don't however, trust Richie Sexson or Raul Ibanez. I was honestly starting to worry about Jose Vidro, but he's been the best hitter on the team since the break. Maybe he's just hoggin' the luck like he's hogged his share at the buffet line.

Still, there's a few guys that have quit pounding on the door and are about to bust it down, if they haven't already unlocked it.

This team's broken, has been since day one, and repair isn't too difficult to manage. It doesn't even require any effort on the trade front, although there's certainly lots of room to explore there...

Ugh. Someone re-light that fire under Bavasi. Remind HIM of the hot seat...

Opportunity Wasted, Making me More Afraid. AKA 2006 Draft, Revisited...

2007-07-12T19:36:00.001-07:00

Okay, I've got a major problem. The more I think about this, the more frustrated I get.

I'm actually writing this during the ballgame tonight, but I have been chewing on this all afternoon.

It should surprise no one that I'm no fan of Howard Lincoln. While I won't call him cheap, I will say that he doesn't have a good sense of baseball economics. According to many sources, the Mariners chose to follow Bud Selig's unwritten policy of slotting monies for draft picks and it was for that reason -- not because of a perceived talent gap -- that the Mariners left tonight's starting pitcher for Detroit on the draft board in favor of Brandon Morrow. That came from Howard Lincoln, and not from Bob Fontaine. Miller's signing bonus with Detroit was $3.5 million, and Brandon Morrow's was $2.5 million. Granted, four teams who drafted ahead of the Mariners also passed on Miller, likely because they didn't want to give him above-slot money either. It's entirely possible that Miller didn't prefer to sign with Seattle, and would've wanted more bonus money to sign with Seattle. Even if it took an extra, what $2 million -- or even crazier -- DOUBLE the signing bonus -- that's still, at max, an extra $5 million above what they gave Morrow.

That one decision, by Howard Lincoln (if the reason given for not drafting Miller is as stated above), cost a heck of a lot more than the extra $5 million above what they gave Morrow.

Right now, the M's are a playoff contending team. If you don't believe me, just ask Ichiro, who's on the verge of surrendering likely his last opportunity of really testing his market value on the open market as a player in his prime. The biggest need for the Mariners is pretty much commonly understood as a top-shelf, #2-3 pitcher to keep the M's from losing more games 12-3, 16-2, etc. From here on out, every win is very important, and they need to optimize this team and improve it any way they can to help their chances of winning the division, if not the Wild Card.

Right now, pitching for Detroit, is the pitcher that should have filled that need. Okay, it's the 6th inning right now as I type this, and in spite of the numerous pitches, and the botched play by Carlos Guillen leading to three Mariners runs, I still believe Miller's that pitcher.

I believe the M's opportunity to patch their rotation for 2007 and beyond was blundered like nothing else.

At the time of the 2006 draft, I saw the glaring holes in the M's rotation, and the lack of upcoming free agents who I really wanted. I wanted a pitcher who could've spent the rest of 2006 in pro ball in the minors, and maybe a few months of 2007 at most, and then jump into the bigs early in the 2007 season. In the off chance that the M's were to be playoff contenders in 2007, I knew that pitcher would need to be a reasonable factor in that equation. Lincecum was projected to be one of those types of pitchers, and the same goes for Miller, obviously. A hard-throwing lefty who's tough to hit (except, of course, unless for tonight your name is Jose Vidro)? Yes please. Imagine a 1-2 punch of Felix and Miller right now, even if Miller's still a little raw. They both pitched equally well tonight.

At the time of the draft, I wanted Tim Lincecum over Brandon Morrow. It was a common debate back then and certainly drafting Morrow over Lincecum was Fontaine's call. I'm less likely to bash Fontaine for taking Morrow over TL. I'd heard some people say that Morrow was most likely to end up as a relief pitcher, and may take awhile to develop as a starter. And that was even WAAAAY before the M's were even considering having him start 2007 in their bullpen. I'm not going to drag Fontaine and the Morrow vs. Lincecum debate into this discussion too much further, because I have other points to make. But that's because I didn't think Miller was going to be available to the M's at #5. Clearly Miller was rated as the consensus best pitcher available and was going to spend very little time in the minors. I believed Lincecum was the same way, and that Morrow, while perhaps having a bit more upside over Lincecum in the long run, needed a fair amount of time in the minors to develop as an MLB starter. There was also the fear that the M's were going to pigeonhole Morrow into the bullpen.

While Morrow also may have fewer health concerns (I guess -- I'm not really convinced myself), I would argue that TL, control issues inclusive, is a better pitcher more prepared for the majors today than Brandon Morrow is, even disregarding the point that Morrow's a RP and TL's a SP. Miller's arguably the best of all three right now, too. Both Lincecum and Miller are MLB-quality starting pitchers right now, and likely only will get better as the season develops. Morrow is barely passable right now as a MLB RP.

That 2006 draft decision, that wasted opportunity, is forcing the M's to have to really work the phones and find a starting pitcher on the trade market - all in a clear seller's market. There are lots of teams looking for starting pitching, and the price, in terms of prospects in trade, is going to be high. The Mariners actually have a decent stable of prospects to trade, but does anyone trust Bavasi as a buyer -- look back to what he got for Soriano. Um, yeah. Horacio Ramirez as a #3 starter? Maybe in the AZ Rookie League. I won't even mention how that trade was the second bad domino to fall -- trading Soriano for a bad SP, forcing you to pull a fastball-throwing SP prospect out of his development as a SP and even MORE insanely to rely on him as an 8th-inning high-leverage reliever. Whoops, I just did.

Now that Ichiro's behemoth contract extension is on the verge of being announced, there's a little less need to completely refuse to trade Adam Jones. While I'm still very reluctant, were I GM, I'm certainly not completely opposed as I might've been with Ichiro's status still uncertain. Even still, though, there are very, very few players that I would trade Adam Jones for straight up. Several of those are pitchers who, of course, aren't going anywhere, since their teams are just as in the race as the Mariners.

But I'm not GM, and Bill Bavasi is. And he judges talent MUCH differently than I do. I'd like to say that since he's the one on the M's payroll that his judgements deserve to be trusted more than mine do. But I wouldn't've even traded Rene Rivera (I believe I clearly dilvulged my thoughts on him earlier today) for either of Horacio Ramirez or Jose Vidro, let alone Emiliano Fruto/Chris Snelling and/or Rafael Soriano. Even knowing Snelling's career is possibly (sadly) done, and Soriano had some injury concerns at the time, too.

That's why I'm afraid.

Now, I do believe that Bavasi recognizes Adam Jones' stardom. I think he's still very, very hesitant to trade him. But again -- I'd be willing to bet significant money that the list of players I'd trade AJ for is quite different than Bavasi's.

The news of the day Tuesday seemed to point to Adam Jones being promoted for the game today. Then, yesterday, that news was dismissed and denied for whatever reason. Even if there was no specific, confirmed plan to bring Adam up for the game today in the first place, they're still keeping him down in Tacoma when he's clearly ready for the majors.

The million dollar question now is -- why?

When an upgrade in the outfield defensively clearly is needed, and AJ would clearly help that, why wouldn't you make that move? I suppose one reason may be that they don't want to rock the boat any more than they have to. When things are going well, why change a good thing? An ancient Christian saying is that there's no person too perfect not to need salvation, and likewise, there's no person bad enough that grace can't rescue. To apply that to baseball, it's hindsight, sure, but even in 2001 they could've improved the team and improved their chances to actually make it into the World Series. I argued that back then, and I argue that again this year. I'm fairly certain that the M's aren't wanting to revert to 2002/3 "Stand Pat" mode right now.

Another concern, I suppose, too, could be that the M's management knows how well how clearly awesome Detroit's starting pitchers are, and they wanted AJ to make a softer landing into the majors this season. That's a logical thought, even if it misses part of the point. Taking that a bit further, too, though, what if they're genuinely concerned about having AJ come to the majors and struggle mightily at the plate? After all, he did just that last season (even though he was a) younger and b) not given a clear role and used inconsistently). What if they're so nervous about it that they're keeping him in the minors, where he's clearly beating the crap out of the ball, just so his trade value isn't damaged?

To me, that's the epitome of stupid. Other MLB teams know his value right now, and I'm sure are willing to give legitimate talent to get him, even if he gets off to a slow start in his 2007 MLB debut. I'd be willing to bet that after Felix, Jones' name is probably the first name asked about.

But, I can see the Mariners being somewhat concerned by that. After all, they're the ones who caused a huge roster problem by trading for Jose Vidro. They seem to ignore the fact that Raul Ibanez, too, is a DH in the outfield -- that his years in the Mariners system as a catcher are catching up to him in LF. They also refuse to acknowledge that their current version of "lefty sock" (Ibanez) is hurting their chances to win by placing his .580 OPS (yes, OPS -- NOT SLG) bat vs. lefties third in the order against a lefty starting pitcher. Some of that's McLaren, possibly, but no one's telling him to change the lineup to adjust for that (as far as I know). Likewise, even with a 3-hit night, they also refuse to acknowledge that they have a huge problem at DH.

Certainly the game's not all about statistics, but you'd think that a smart organization would recognize how important it is to maximize the probility of winning as much as they could. Making the adjustments that are most likely to get the most out of what you have.

I'm not sure which starting pitcher they're targeting, if they're indeed on the phones shopping for one. Does anyone believe, though, that they're not? I've heard rumors of several, and I'm sure they were talking to Chicago about Buehrle, before Buehrle signed his extension. But I'm also sure that whatever starting pitcher they may be targeting will cost more than $5 million -- if not over the course of the rest of the season, then certainly likely in 2008 and beyond.

I'm really hoping he also doesn't cost Adam Jones. If it does, then I hope that pitcher is here for a long time and is much better than Andrew Miller. I don't believe such a trade is possible.

Again, Howard Lincoln is not cheap. But if indeed he specifically said no to allowing for an extra $3-5 million above draft slot money it might've taken to get the concensus best pitcher in the draft -- one who clearly was close to becoming a MLB pitcher, in a time when the Mariners clearly needed MLB-ready pitchers (and had few in their system) -- then he needs to also recognize what it very well might have cost the Mariners. I'm not totally convinced Morrow can or will be put back on track to develop as a starting pitcher. It's clear to me anyway that he's not even close to being there now.

This whole branch of problems started with Howard Lincoln, went through Fontaine (to a small extent for drafting Morrow over a more MLB-ready Tim Lincecum), and down through Bavasi (for trading away one of his best late-innings RP aces for a crappy SP, patching not that SP hole and creating a new one in the RP corps AND down on the farm). It's too bad, too. It's a decision that I believed at the time, and still believe today, that will haunt the Mariners for a long, long, long time.

Free Adam Moore!

2007-07-12T12:41:00.000-07:00

There. I said it. Notice the "AKA" change at the top, too.

I think pitchers like Rene Rivera, but the dude's hitting .180./253/.272. In AA. He's taking up a 40-man roster spot that could very likely be needed soon.

About a year ago, right after the 2006 MLB draft, I claimed Adam Moore as one of my new Adopt-a-players over at SportSpot. My comment then was "potentially the best bat taken by the M's in the draft," even though I really didn't know a whole lot about him. Yes, I recognize that High Desert's home park is offense-inflating. But from what I read from those who follow these things more closely, Moore is pretty likely to stick at catcher. From all my conversations w/Churchill, too, Moore is a good bet to actually become a real prospect, even calling him "The top candidate for sleeper prospect of the year" in a May Farm Report for the Seattle P-I. Dave Cameron has him, now, in his "Future Forty" (along with Austin Bibens-Dirkx, too :-)

After a blazing first half, where Moore had a .930 OPS -- roughly .886 on the road and 1.009 at home -- he's started out the two games in the second half on fire, too. While indeed the High Desert launching pad certainly has helped him, he actually has hit more HRs (and XBHs) on the road, and had more RBIs, too.

So, Bavasi/Looper/Mattox/Hunter -- free yourselves of the 40-man spot and, if you want, after he clears waivers and presuming you still want him in the system, move Rivera down a level to see if he could at least OPS .600 in High Desert. And free both Adam Moore and Austin Bibens-Dirkx from High Desert. They're probably both ready now.

All Star Game Day Reaction

2007-07-11T07:33:00.000-07:00

What a day. Upon hearing the Ichiro news, I instantly lost any semblance of focus at work. I'm an addict, and I need to re-read the-blogger-formerly-known-as-Munchausen's treatise on baseball and ideologies to help me come back down to earth.

But I can't.

This season, it feels like baseball has loved me back and thanked me. My fandom of George Sherrill in particular has almost always been rewarded (even tangibly), and my die-hardedness in sticking by the M's through thick and thin and Howard Lincoln is also beginning to result in joy that honestly feels as real as a lot of joy I've experienced from more tangible and un-ideological events.

But that's for another post. I want to jot down a few things that crossed my mind during the few glances I got at the game yesterday. I didn't see much of the beginning of it, but I did listen on the radio, and I saw some highlights after the game.

1) Hearing Griffey gunning down A-Rod on the radio was just awesome. Seeing it on the highlights afterwards was even better. I could almost hear Griffey's thoughts about his Seattle homecoming and the reception that A-Rod still gets in Seattle. The camera didn't show him in the field afterward, but I'd bet that trademark grin was at least somewhat cracked.

2) Would you expect anything else from Ichiro? I mean, here he comes into one of the NL parks where a lot of people thought he might be playing at in 2008 and beyond (Dodger stadium would've gotten my vote, though) , upstaging a mega-bopper in his home park, on his own stage, by making history in his own unique way -- hitting the first ITP HR in ASG history. To borrow from a common Lookout Landing joke -- Ichiro is selfish because he rewrites history...

3) Speaking of the ITP HR, it's also fascinating that the RF victim was, yes, Ken Griffey Junior. Gunning down A-Rod, but being the unfortunate victim of a horrible bounce, along with the 2-RBI night that, had the NL held the lead, might've helped Griffey win the ASG MVP. Griffey's still got his game. No RF in the game would've prevented Ichiro's ITP, likely even one that plays RF every day in SF. Maybe I'm biased, but that was a wicked, wicked bounce that fooled everyone. I love Jose Guillen -- seriously, I'm not advocating trading him at all, although I can accept the thoughts from those who do want to trade him -- but Griffey's defense is still acceptable, if not very solid in RF. He's not a CF anymore, and his defense has definitely lost several steps. But he's not a DH-only either. I know Adam Jones is coming up to play RF for now with the M's. Having Griffey come back in 2007 and take over RF, shifting AJ to LF would be the icing of the cake, and would help the M's chances of contending at least as much as adding another starting pitcher would. I know it ain't happening, but if it did, I don't know how I could contain my excitement. Heck, I might even go to FanFest next January and ask Howard's permission to give him a freakin' hug!

4) So indeed Ichiro goes all MVP on the ASG, on the day where the news has pretty clearly leaked out around the world that he's pretty much baseball's newest $100 million man, yet in the interview during the award ceremony, Jeanne Zelasko closes her interview with Ichiro by stating something like "See San Fransisco fans? Ichiro can hit home runs, and he'll be a free agent!" The look on Ichiro's face (after all, Ichiro does know English very well, he just is more comfortable w/a translator because, well, he's neurotic about details) and his body gestures seemed to suggest that he was about ready to make a comment about that. And it was going to be his own way of saying "STFU!" if my memory serves me correctly. EDIT -- Here's the clip on YouTube (at least for the time being -- note that it's not there anymore)...

So, yeah, I agree with Dave Cameron. Yesterday was the biggest day in Mariner Fandom since 10/8/1995. For those of you too young to remember, or not paying attention back then -- I just have two words: "Edgar Double." That should jog your memory...

...But McLaren's the Right Man for the Job

2007-07-05T12:55:00.000-07:00

How amazing is it that the M's could start their road trip losing a series against the Royals, yet still gain a half a game in the division race? After a tough battle for a loss in extras, followed by a Feierabend meltdown for a complete blowout, McLaren had a tough job to do to inspire the troops to avoid the sweep.

Sure, a manager's direct effect on the win-loss totals is likely fairly low. But having a manager that players are excited about playing for might actually inspire the players to perhaps dig a little deeper and give a little more to contribute to the team's overall success. I'd bet that the players had some respect for Hargrove and liked him as a manager. But McLaren's been in there all along drinking a morning coffee w/JJ Putz during the winter, putting "Sisler" on tongue depressors as a makeshift bat holder for Ichiro's special bats, etc. That kind of relationship can help a coach or a manager help connect with his or her underlings so much better, and is more likely to motivate them even slightly to perform more to his/her expectations.

To me, that's huge. He's got the respect of the players, already, and as mentioned in Andriesen's article linked above, the coaches. That sort of thing is very important when transitioning from one manager to another. Especially in the middle of the season, during a winning campaign, with a decent shot of competing for the playoffs. Of course, this current situation, where the manager resigns during a winning streak and the team on a big roll, never happens, so having a guy like McLaren take the reins and make the transition seemless is very important.

From Baker:

McLaren got a post-game beer shower to celebrate his first win since taking over for Hargrove on Monday. Richie Sexson actually gave him a plastic sheet to cover himself and McLaren was allowed to remove his cap, glasses and a sling his arm has been in since shoulder surgery last week. He also got the game ball, lineup card and a bottle of Dom Perignon autographed by the entire team.

I could be wrong, but I would be very surprised if Hargrove got the same treatment after his first victory. Checking the PI archives from April 2005, I'm not seeing any such mention. Maybe it's unfair, since Baker's a n00b and a pretty darn good reporter, and the other beat writers, well, sucked back then, and we didn't really get access to this type of info. And maybe it's unfair to make the comparison between manager types, since Hargrove's always been a quiet, reserved type and McLaren took classes from Lou Piniella's charm school (and skipped his special education courses on how to properly flip out and get ejected). But I'm guessing it's no small thing that McLaren got a bottle of Dom Perignon autographed by the entire team.

It shows, ever so slightly, how the team feels about him. It shows, perhaps, too, that he's already won over the team. He's certainly won over Ichiro, whose latest comment, as LaRue reports in the Tacoma News Tribune, seems less enigmatic or philosophical than other comments Ichiro has made regarding the manager:

"We don’t know what the future holds for manager John McLaren," Ichiro Suzuki said. "But to be part of his first victory was emotional for all of us. I want to help him win a lot of games in his career."

With Ichiro in his corner, McLaren's got clear control over this team from the get-go. He'll keep them loose, but give them the leadership and motivation they need when things aren't going so well.

I don't know about you, but I'm most certainly excited about the Mariners now. I love the little insights that McLaren gives us on why he makes the moves he makes. Sure, we'll all probably second-guess him constantly. But at least we'll be a little more likely to understand the reason behind those decisions.

McLaren's a guy who, through the media, can connect with the fans, too. We haven't had a manager like that for awhile. That will go at least a little way to winning back fan loyalty. As will, of course, winning.

McLaren's gonna help that, too.

Not Off to a Good Start...

2007-07-02T20:56:00.000-07:00

Mr. McLaren, I support you. I trust you a little more than I did Hargrove. One thing, though:

GEORGE SHERRILL IS NOT A LOOGY.

Thanks.

Tip o' t' Hat to Hargrove!

2007-07-01T16:35:00.000-07:00

What a shocker. No idea why he made the decision and chose today to resign. But he does go down on top, and with the second consecutive sweep, he avoids losing # 100 w/ the M's.

Welcome, John McLaren! You're the right man for the job.

Thanks, Hargrove, for making the decision. You're a good man, and I'm glad to see you make the choice, rather than having the choice made for you.

Go off into the sunset with your Harley! And enjoy the hell out of it.

Rainiers Report # Whatever

2007-06-28T23:28:00.000-07:00

Wherein Marc W., Juan Sandoval get pwned by Gaia!

The last Rainiers report occurred mere hours after a fender bender outside of my beloved Cheney Stadium. Taking what I thought was a clear hint from Nature, I decided I was done with driving a couple of minutes to the game, even if I was late. I'm a walking fan, and I thought Nature would support that decision. But no - Gaia shows no favor to those supplicants who reduce their carbon footprints by walking, just as she shows no mercy to those Rainiers who are differently abled.

Tonight's game pitted the Rainiers and the Portland Beavers, and the pitching match-up was mildly intriguing. Juan Done got the call for Tacoma, a few weeks after getting lit up by the Beavers in PGE park. Former M's farmhand Ryan Ketchner took the mound for Portland. Ketchner was a fave among M's minorleague fans for his decent K rates, but the org let him go in the Jolbert Cabrera deal back in 2004. No? Not even mildly intriguing? Eh, yeah, that was a bit of a stretch. Did I mention that Ketchner is almost totally deaf? Is that at least mildly heart warming?

The game got off to a decent start, as Jeff Clement followed a Bryan LaHair single with a long HR to right. This photo shows, crappily, the follow through that Clement took on that HR swing. You might hope for an in-focus shot, or for a photo showing the swing/contact instead of the rather more mundane follow-through (how do you know this is the follow through from the HR swing? How do you know this was taken *at tonight's game at all?* Riddle/Enigma/Puzzle sandwich, to be sure. But I like to think we've built up a rapport, and I like to think you know I'm not joshing (all five of) you. Here it is:

Whew, that's blurry. Let's move on.

Juan Done imploded in the top of the third, giving up 5 runs on a two-run single by Vince Sinisi (4-4 on the day, with 4 wussy singles). Immediately after a chat with pitching coach Dwight Bernard, Done gave up a line drive 3R HR right down the line in left to 2B Craig Stansberry. Done also felt like he was getting squeezed and had a bit of a chat with the umpire after the inning (he also threw a pitch to the backstop after a late time-out call in the next half-inning; I don't think Done and the umpire will be meeting up for a beer later). Juan settled down and ended up going 6IP of 5H 5R ball, but the M's just couldn't get anything going against Ketchner who was 0-8 coming into the game. Ryan's line was a very impressive 7IP 4H 2R 2BB 9Ks.

Juan Sandoval, the man who was *shot in the face* in his native Dominican Republic, came on to replace Done in the 7th, but Gaia would not let his inspiring story unfold. Sandoval uses goggles to reduce glare in his non-functional left eye (and if you just started reading at this point, I may need to explain that Sandoval's left eye was SHOT. In a restaurant), but Gaia petulantly started raining just after the 7th began. By the second batter, Sandoval couldn't see out of his right eye (his other eye having been SHOT OUT OF HIS FACE) and placed the goggles on the brim of his hat. The umpire, mad after being shown up by Juan Done, decided to assert control and told Sandoval to remove the goggles from the hat (maybe because they were reflecting light or something. I don't know; if a guy whose eye was shot out was on the mound, dealing 90+ heat, I'd let him leave some f******* goggles on his hat. That's just me. Gaia, this umpire, they loooove lording it over one-eyed pitchers. Dicks.). At this point Sandoval couldn't really see much, and he gave up 3 consecutive singles, scoring another Beaver run. In the 8th, the skies really opened up, and Sandoval clearly couldn't see much. After a lead-off walk, and a single following it, his night was through, and Jason Mackintosh closed things out by allowing one inherited run to score.
In the bottom of the 8th, just as reliever Aaron Rakers was announced, a deluge began. Gaia knew I was walking home, and she saw my jeans and laughed, probably how her slutty cousin Fate laughed when she decided to have Juan Sandoval's left eye blown out. The game? The game was abandoned, and the Beavers "won" 7-2. I'm OK now, after a couple glasses of Basil Hayden's (my apologies for a somewhat scattered, eye-obsessed Report tonight), but I can't shake the feeling that Gaia was nasty, not just to me, but to poor Juan Sandoval.
Gaia, for your actions tonight, you get the Morsels backwards K of the night.

For M's 'spect watchers, Adam Jones started in RF tonight, obviously getting some work in the corners, should he be needed in Seattle (hint hint hint). Wlad took over in CF and looked OK, though he didn't have much to do. He nearly threw out a runner at home after Sinisi's bases-loaded single in the third, but his throw was just on the 1B side of home. Jones also had a near miss, after nearly surprising Drew Macias at third following Luke Carlin's single.
Jeff Clement followed his HR with a walk and a strikeout.
--------------------------------------------
Morsels Q and A!!!!

Q: NBA draft/trade? Your thoughts?
A: Awesome. The sonics get the best talent in the draft, coupled with an actual post presence in Green, who will probably outrebound the past 4 Sonics first-rounders combined next year. Losing RayRay is tough, but it's right for the team. Now sign Rashard, and call it a year. Oh, and stick around, too.

Q: Wlad - is he for real, or is this some sort of fluke?
A: As someone who's been talking about Wlad for years, including when 99% of M's fans thought he'd never amount to anything, I'm loving this. It's clearly for real too, despite an uptick in his K rate. He's simply a more disciplined, more advanced hitter. He's a guy who had huge flaws in his game, but who also had prodigious power and natural ability. By listening to his coaches and working on his flaws, he's made himself a legit blue-chipper, and I think that's awesome. M's bloggers need an underdog to root for with Snelling gone, and I think Wlad's the one (oh, uh, and ABD too! Sorry Paul!).

Q: George Sherrill - how much of this is luck?
A: Not much. Look, his peripherals looked almost identical to Mike Gonzales coming into the year, and he's gotten even better this year. He's dropped his walk rate, and his sneaky fastball is proving way too much for the best lefties in the game. Might he give up a longball to a righty? Might an inherited runner or two score? Sure, but we're witnessing one of the better lefty set-up seasons in memory; this one goes down with Arthur Rhodes' 2001, and it's clearly better (in WPA terms) than Ed Vande Berg's 1982. Enjoy it, and remember: Positive Paul told you this would happen.

Q: Who sucks?
A: Jake Woods.

Q: M's pythagorean winning percentage is just 'meh' but they're right in the WC hunt. What gives?
A: The bullpen gives, that's true. And given the number of freakishly terrible starts the M's have endured, it's probably not that surprising that the M's pythag is out of whack. They look like a contender 4 out of 5 nights, and that hasn't been true in a while. The biggest worry is the defense. Their team DER is terrible, and that's gotta change if they want guys like Batista and Weaver to keep them in contention. On the other hand, thanks to some nice bullpen management, the 'pen may singlehandedly keep this team in the race. Forget taking a lead into the 6th or 7th, with solid years from Sean Green and Eric O'Flaherty, this team basically only needs 4-5 innings (see Feierabend, Ryan) from its starters. There are still a ton of question marks, but there are also legitimate strengths, strengths that might keep the M's in the race this fall. This is all quite lovely for us NW baseball fans, but that pit in my stomach comes from the fact that Bill Bavasi may feel the need to make a move at the deadline this year. Last year, Bavasi gave up a 20-YO shortstop who's putting up a near .900 OPS this year to go along with MLB-quality defense for a RH DH who retired from baseball about 5 months after the trade. *Rad!* This year, I have nightmares that Wlad Balentien gets dealt for the grittiest, veteranest, clubhouse-mentorest crap the AL can belch up. That, or a crappy 5th starter. Eric Milton's on the DL, which eases my mind a bit, so here's hoping that Bill doesn't panic after Buehrle goes to the Yanks and trades Mark Hendrickson for Adam Jones or something.

A Quick Observation of Weaver

2007-06-25T23:43:00.000-07:00

After his performance today, I'm starting to really remember why I liked the thought of adding Jeff Weaver into the rotation during the offseason. While I see him as having some issues with his emotions, tonight, and last week vs. the Pirates both, I saw a different player than what I saw at the beginning of the year.

For some players, there's a fine edge between being able to control their emotions in a good way -- to channel that anger to dominate -- and to be demonized by them so that they collapse under the weight of their emotions. In the first part of Jeff's Mariners career, he was clearly frustrated and the cycle of frustration got so big that he looked helpless and lost any sense of how to pitch. Over the last couple of games, however, he seemed to keep things under wraps and channel that emotion into confidence.

It's possible that the data shows otherwise, but it appeared that Jeff didn't let the jams get to him, and he was able to put a tourniquet on the bleeding when he needed to. That mental edge and the ability to get out of jams, whether major or minor, seemed to suggest that Jeff's turning things around.

No, he won't be a great pitcher. It's likely that the balls that were getting pounded through holes to start the year aren't finding those holes right now. Jeff's just such an emotional guy, that when he's focused and controlling those emotions, he's more likely to pitch effectively. He's always been the type that needs confidence to pitch, and if you mess with it, he totally implodes. That's why he was kicked out of New York. Seattle's nurturing environment, both in the organization and in the fanbase, really is a good fit for Jeff. If he can get his ERA+ up from the low 40s to closer to 100, that's the same as adding another pitcher in there. I wouldn't bet on his recent performance being sustainable, but you can always hope.

With no other options in our farm system (although Popeye Campillo would be fun to watch, perhaps) to slip into the rotation, it's very important that Weaver pick up the slack and clean up the mess he started with. Adding MORE pitching would be nice, but it's going to be expensive. And everybody's going to be trying to do it as well.

I'll await Jeff's and Dave's commentary, if either of them take the time to say anything about his performance today. But I do believe he was being successful throwing whatever offspeed pitch seemed to work for him -- the change, the slider, whatever it was he had success with -- kept Boston off balance and limited the damage. A few balls were smoked -- the one off the LF scoreboard, for example, but it wasn't nearly like in the games earlier in the season. I hope it's more repeatable, now that he's shown success against both a horrible club and arguably the best in the league. I honestly sorta cheer for Jeff, in the way you sorta cheer for Spicoli in "Fast Times at Ridgemont High." Nice to see Hargrove stand in his corner today, like Mr. Hand did w/Spicoli.

Gee. I wonder if Felix is paying attention. Throwing off-speed and breaking stuff, mixing the pitch selection rather than throwing 95% fastballs will especially be important since, unlike Pittsburgh, Boston's got a lineup that can do some serious damage...

Could Griffey and Ichiro Co-Exist?

2007-06-22T12:23:00.001-07:00

I'm not tired of all the Griffey talk. I'm sorry if you are, and don't want any more. Too bad. While Buhner was my favorite M back in that era, Griffey wasn't far behind. Watching the two of them together, though, really drew me into baseball. Seeing Griffey play with his dad, too, drew me in further. To me, one of baseball's all-time greatest moments happened when Jr. and Sr. had back-to-back HRs. Such a feat hadn't happened before, and I'd be hard pressed to believe it'll happen again. While I know that Junior is gone (as are those days w/the M's), the one that's still with us is still pretty doggone good.

Again, the M's playoffs discussion starts with improving the run prevention -- via starting pitching and defense. Maybe Yuni will remember how to throw the ball to first base, and that will help some. And maybe they'll do something about that outfield defense.

But a part of me can see a bit of merit in luring Griffey back to Seattle. Hear me out, before you blow a gasket. I recognize that it's folly to believe that a) he'd want to come back here and b) the M's would pony up the cash/players to make it happen. Let me be a fan boy homer for a weekend. And wallow in the misery of the joy of my past (and lack thereof in the present).

Let's look at something interesting for a minute. How would bringing Griffey back to Seattle affect Ichiro? I could argue that Ichiro would love it. Imagine Griffey's .932 OPS vs. lefties and .960 OPS vs. righties batting third for the Mariners. You think Ichiro would hate being driven in all the time? I think Ichiro would be happy with that. I'm not sure he's real thrilled about the lineup that's currently constructed behind him. Also, chew on this for a minute:

In March 1999, as part of a working agreement between the Nintendo-owned Mariners and the Blue Wave, Ichiro joined the M's for a spring training stint. He became friends with Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez and began to dream of playing in Seattle. (--ESPN the Magazine archives)

Ichiro dreamed of playing specifically in Seattle, thanks at least in part to Junior? Again, that Junior may not be around anymore, but the Junior that is certainly has his value. He may have lost a dozen steps defensively, but he still loves playing the game. And he can still hit. He's still showing his 41% better-than-league-average bat. A career OPS+ of 141, and his 2007 OPS+ thus far still exactly right there.

Looking to the future, too -- if Ichiro leaves, and the M's don't show any signs of moving towards giving the fans exciting October baseball, then they'll need something to really keep people interested. I'm all for a temporary stop-gap for excitement and relevance of the execs bringing back Griffey to spend his last days back here where he belongs. Landing career milestons in the uni from which he launched 'em.

Felix will be good and all, but I doubt he's done anywhere close to 'nuff for the Safeco bandwagoners to crown him king of their hearts, like the blogosphere has (even if those crown-givers are seeing the tarnish in his crown). If Ichiro leaves, then the M's will be really hurtin' and will need a quick-fix to grab some fans back. It'd be completely easy for them to market the heck out of Griffey's return enough to keep 2 million or so ticket buyers' wallets open.

It wouldn't necessarily be a bad move. Or, wait. It probably would. I'm just a victim of all this damned propganda!

/Wakes up from dream land.
//Grabs a kleenex...

.:Applause:.

2007-06-21T09:15:00.000-07:00

Good on you, Jeff! Way to pitch a heckuva game. I don't care that it was against the Pirates -- you struggled against an equally-woeful Royals lineup, and showed that when you pitch with your brain you can pitch in the majors.

Still, to adapt a common image we borrow over at LookoutLanding:

Anyone who saw that one coming obviously has Marty McFly's 2007 Sports Almanac.

Pa. The. Tic.

2007-06-19T22:22:00.000-07:00

Losing 3-4 to the Cubs, being swept by the Stros, and now a loss to the Pirates?

NOW can Hargove be fired???

I don't care how poor of a reason this may be. It may just be a bit unfair to put it on him. Still, there's a window of opportunity there. Get rid of him now that we have the shot.

His bias against having kids in there that can more likely help than not is killing the team.

Free Adam Jones.

Free John McLaren.

Yes, Pitching help is needed. But...

2007-06-13T12:31:00.000-07:00

Yes, we need pitching. We need help in the rotation, especially, and perhaps one more good arm in the 'pen. We need a pitcher that can pitch deeper into ball games. Ultimately, though, is going out and surrendering prospects the only way to upgrade our pitching?

Not necessarily.

The difference between good pitching and bad pitching, ultimately, is run prevention. Good pitchers, in combination with good defenses, can increase run prevention. Mediocre pitchers can be helped out by having extraordinary defenses behind them. Upgrading the defense can at least slightly increase the overall run prevention side of the win/loss equation (that being that you have to score more runs than you surrender to win ball games).

While defensive metrics are still not scientifically relevent yet, they're not completely useless either. Upgrading a notably bad, both statistically and scouting-wise, outfielder with one that is better can help the run prevention, and help the pitching.

As long as the difference between the bat that's added and the bat that's replaced is minimal, and the impact on the more-scientifically sound run scoring side of the equation is neutral, at worst, the improvement on defense can make the overall team better. Having a good defense that's less likely to have miscues that extend innings and prevent pitchers from going deeper into games can improve a team's chances of winning. With the extra bonus, too, of possibly allowing pitchers to pitch deeper into ball games.

While I recognize that this idea may be thinking outside of the box a bit for the Mariners, I'd bet that they're at least aware of the principles outlined here. Now, I'm not expecting a change, but I would like to imagine that moving a clearly-ready-for-the-majors Adam Jones into left field, defensively-challenged Raul Ibanez to the DH, and Jose Vidro to the first-bat-off-the-bench would actually help the pitching staff, and may slightly improve the offense.

I realize there are several potential problems with this. It takes out one 'lefty' bat in Vidro, where this team doesn't need to surrender lefty bats. Raul Ibanez also is more comfortable when he's playing the field, and the potential discomfort he may have could affect his hitting. Jones also isn't a natural outfielder, even if he's a heck of an athlete, and while he has learned CF remarkably well, there's always a risk of seeing how well he'd transfer to LF.

I don't see those things as major risks, though. They're very small, really, and I'd actually have Vidro in at DH vs. lefty pitching, and I think he could still get regular playing time. Plus, the type of hitter Vidro is (singles hitter, keeps the ball on the ground, rarely gets XBHs or flyouts) can kill a lot of rallies when he GIDPs. Jones has much more power, and while his batting average may not reach .290 in the bigs right away, there's much, much more to offensive numbers than batting average. I'd be willing to bet that Jones could put up an OPS higher than Vidro's .710, especially when given consistent playing time. And, I'd be willing to be that the pitching numbers would noticably improve, too.

And, you don't have to make a trade to get him in there. Perhaps it's at the cost of Ellison. Nothing against Jason, of course, but I like Adam better. While Ellison actually would be a defensive upgrade, I doubt his bat is any better than Vidro's. And, no way is it better than Jones's...

Atta Boy, George!

2007-06-12T22:16:00.000-07:00

Man. What a game.

I can't believe the Mariners, and their decimated bullpen, pulled out that victory. It's about time they cashed in on the expensive payments on players who were brought in to develop team chemistry. It's really nice to have exciting baseball again with the Mariners. This team may not be as good as they have been as of late, but this team isn't boring like they have been the last few years...

While Davis, O'Flaherty and Putz all did their jobs, the pitching hero definitely was our guy George. Coming in to relieve Morrow, with the bases loaded and only 1 out -- any sort of decent contact and the Cubs score a run. Top of the 9th with a lead, the Cubs probably would've won. Davis, EOF, and Putz wouldn't've gotten the chance to do what they did. And Willie wouldn't've gotten his gritty RBI (no thanks to Vidro who, when he finally made up his mind what he was doing, lucked into the run when Barrett dropped the ball).

I don't want to take away from what O'Flaherty did tonight. He pitched incredibly well, and deserves a ton of kudos, too. But if GS52 doesn't do his job in the 8th, the M's don't make it to extras.

Big High-5, George! And a big high-5 to the team for making it a team effort and a team win tonight.

Refuse to Lose is BACK!

Uh, Felix, it's 2007...

2007-06-05T07:35:00.000-07:00

So, I'm really starting to get tired of Felix being crowned king already. Yeah, he's got great stuff. He's got excellent pitches -- the best I've ever seen, too. Problem is -- he seems to have issues knowing what to throw when. It seems like the hitters are ignoring his good stuff, and just sitting on his fastball, knowing that he's going to give it to them -- up in the zone, just where they want to see it.

Although I didn't watch the game yesterday, I saw the highlights. And, I heard enough of Bill Krueger to know that Bill was way off base. No, Felix doesn't need to lay off of his breaking stuff. He needs to establish his curve, his slider, and his 2-seamer. He needs to throw those for strikes. It sounds like the defense was sort of an issue yesterday, as Ellison was a little rusty in CF, and Lopez had issues turning the DP. Still, Felix wasn't getting people to swing and miss, which is vitally important to how he pitches. He was being hit hard -- and in the post-game interview (in English, admirably), he even admitted that he was struggling mightily with his command.

I'm still wondering if it's pitch selection he's struggling with. And, he really needs to recall the first two games from his mental memory bank. That could make the difference between the M's staying in the hunt (either for the Wild Card or the Division) and falling back down into the cellar. Or, is he really healthy? His last few performances may suggest otherwise. He's definitely not the Felix I saw in the first two games of the season.

He's got the potential, and he's still very young. Still, if he's as other-worldly as people believe he is, it's time he starts showing it. I'm very tired of seeing the Felix of 2006. This is 2007, and he was off to such a great start...

What to do with Ichiro...

2007-05-23T10:21:00.000-07:00

I've been mulling over this post for a long, long time. I figure I better start writing things down and finish it before it's a) irrelevant or b) covered excessively elsewhere. Since b) can only get worse as the 2007 season rolls on, I'm going to get my thoughts down now.

In analyzing the Ichiro situation, and his impending free agency, it's relatively straightforward to take a simple approach -- look at scenarios and do a cost-benefit analysis of those scenarios. So, that's what I'm going to do here. I'll definitely further discuss my opinions in a later post or two, but for now I just want to make an attempt to lay down some simple framework.

Scenaro 1 -- Ichiro is traded during the season

Notes: For this to happen, it will have to become very, very clear that Ichiro wants to leave Seattle, and becomes very public or vocal about it. I'd be very surprised if this scenario comes into play, even though I could argue it may make the most sense for the M's.

Cost:

Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears.
If LH major-league-ready bat doesn't come over in a trade, that's one more LH bat the M's need to add back into the lineup.
Fans disappointed/angry/sad/annoyed, etc. (leading to potential significant revenue loss).
Potential loss of other role players in an Ichiro + trade.
M's lose a little more of the national spotlight, and their relevance, by losing a nationally-recognized Mariner (i.e. when some random Yankees fan in Illinois is asked to name at least one Seattle Mariner, I'd bet that fan would be most likely to name Ichiro, if he/she's able to name any M's player at all. We need to work more on the "Free George Sherrill" campaign).

Benefit:

Adam Jones develops as the M's new CF, and adds a little more punch to the lineup.
Ichiro would likely bring some big time impact players via trade -- players that would potentially fill more than one hole on the team.
A possibly distracting situation is resolved.

Scenario 2 -- Ichiro stays the entire season, and leaves via free agency.

Notes: This is a real possibility, with Howard/Chuck and the rest of the M's execs very hesitant to trade their franchise player. It would also likely be the most painful for everyone but Ichiro. However, since this really would be one of the first times Ichiro would be a free agent , ever, I can see where he really honestly would like to at least reach free agency. I mean, think about it -- wouldn't you want to have the baseball resume Ichiro has, and finally be able to have a lot of control over your own destiny? It's Russian Roulette for the team, as it really could be tough selling Ichiro on this franchise's future. Especially if the front office turmoil that needs to happen, happens. But, of course, one could argue that a front office churnage would also encourage Ichiro to stick around. Especially if the manager's one of those casualties...

Cost:

Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears (in 2008 and beyond).
Losing out on potential trade chips that could help the team.
M's lose relevance and national spotlight even more (in 2008 and beyond).
Another LH bat needed in the lineup.

Benefit:

Ichiro helps the team in 2007, if they are close to a playoff race.
Payroll flexibility, as Ichiro's not going to be cheap.
Adam Jones inherits the CF job.
Team would definitely offer arbitration, and get the draft pick(s) that Ichiro's departure could potentially help out in the future more than Ichiro can.

Scenario 3 -- Ichiro remains a Mariner, either through signing a contract extension during the season, or as a free agent.

Notes: Right now, I'd say this is the most likely scenario, but, honestly, that's more of a guess than anything. Unless Ichiro truly wants out (which I don't think even he knows yet, but is still very, very possible), I think he stays in Seattle. The M's will give him plenty of money, and I'm sure he knows that, and I can certainly see where that might not be the best idea, too.

Cost:

Payroll. Lots of it. Ichiro's going to get a boatload of cash. He'd likely tie up around 20% of the M's payroll. That's a huge chunk, really.
Potential trade of Adam Jones or other OF prospects (Wlad, Reed, etc...).
Risk of aging effects. I would argue that Ichiro's more likely to buck the aging trends, but I still recognize that there's some real, significant risk in committing 3-5 years to a 35+ year old player.
Flexibility. Sort of inherent in the payroll thing, because they do go hand-in-hand, but it could work to their disadvantage, too. If they're going to have a $100 million payroll from now on, is it in their best interest to give Jose Guillen 1/2 of what Ichiro would've gotten? By giving so much money to Ichiro, this answers that question a bit. But, it also could close another potential opening for a much needed power hitter.
Losing out on potential trade chips that, combined, could help the team more than Ichiro himself could.

Benefit:

M's keep some relevance and retain some national spotlight (in 2008 and beyond).
Ichiro's hitting, fielding, running. While there's some risk of those skills diminishing, there's also a fair enough chance that they don't decline significantly. Especially if you consider Ichiro (as I do) a HOF-caliber player.
One less LH bat to acquire.
Fan satisfaction -- potential retention of revenue by having happy fans that don't overreact to losing yet another huge Seattle franchise star...

Okay, so that's my stab at this. What am I missing? Do you see costs/benefits in any of these scenarios that I've overlooked. I know you do -- I can't see everything, and I tend to overlook even the obvious a lot of the time...

Rainiers Report #6: sound of vomitting

2007-05-19T19:28:00.001-07:00

The Rainiers' Jorge Campillo and Tucson's Yusmeiro Petit matched up in a tight pitcher's duel today at Cheney, and for most of the day, the two put up zeroes in a crisply played game in the intermittent rain.
Then, everything went to hell.

Campillo and Petit are both change-of-speed pitchers; Petit was once a big time prospect with the Mets (the centerpiece of the Carlos Delgado deal), and he blew through the low minors easily. Scouts never bought into him, thinking that his meh stuff and plus command meant his ceiling was more of a MOR/BOR starter in the Majors.

So far, the scouts appear to be right - Petit's been scuffling for a while, first at AAA Albuquerque last year in the Marlins' system, and now again for the D-Backs AAA affiliate. None of that mattered today, as a fastball-hitting line-up couldn't seem to square him up. Below, Wlad Balentien gives an example of the sorts of swings Petit was getting:

You might expect a pitcher like this to be especially hard on Adam Jones and Wlad Balentien, but instead, the two OF prospects looked pretty good. Balentien hit a 2B on the first pitch he saw, and later worked a walk. Adam Jones was 2/3 with a 2b and a 3b and 2BB. Here's Jones swing on the 3B, a line drive off the base of the CF wall:

The Rainiers struck first in the bottom of the 7th, when Rob Johnson led off with a brilliantly placed bunt single - Sidewinders 3B Jamie D'Antona's throw (which never had a chance anyway) went into the dugout, and Johnson took second. The next batter, Gookie Dawkins, thought he'd try the same thing. His bunt wasn't quite as good, but the result was the same: Petit threw wildly to first, resulting in a two-base error and the first run of the ballgame. Navarro followed and, you knew this was coming, laid down a bunt. This time, the Sidewinders were able to handle it for the first out. Adam Jones followed with a triple and chased Petit.

However, the bullpen let Campillo down. After 7 2/3 innings of 0R 5H 3K 1BB baseball, Campillo turned it over to Ryan Rowland-Smith, making his 2nd appearance after his rather uneventful stay in Seattle. He got out of the 8th, but the 9th would prove... I don't know, nasty? Ridiculous? Bush-league?
Alex Romero led off with a single, but RRS got Jeff Salazar to bounce a slow chopper right to 2b Gookie Dawkins. Dawkins attempted to tag Romero coming down the line, but missed. He then tried to hurry a throw to first, but threw it away. What looked like an easy FC and fairly easy DP turned into a 2nd and 3rd, no out situation. RRS walked the next hitter to set up the double play again, but the tone had been set. Sean Green was called on to finish it out - a good move as an extreme GB pitcher. With D'Antona batting, Rob Johnson yielded a fairly sloppy passed ball, and it was 2-1. Green walked D'Antona to again set up the DP opportunity. He didn't quite get it, but he did get Brian Barden to chop one to an onrushing 3B Ronnie Prettyman - he looked to have a force at home, but after studying the situation for what felt like 5 minutes, he decided to throw to first for the out. 2-2. Dee Brown then hit a comebacker to Green who flipped to Johnson, but Johnson dropped the ball for an error and a 3-2 Snakes lead. A wild pitch from Green scored another. After another out, Rich Thompson hit a bloop single to left which Jon Nelson misplayed for another error (that's three in the inning, for those scoring at home), and the final run.
From a 0-0, well-played game (Snakes LF Romero made some nice plays in LF) to a 5-2 game reminiscent of tee-ball and office softball. To cap it, I got in a car wreck on the way home. Rad. I'm displeased with my saturday, and would like to exchange it for another.

(all photos by Marc W.)

.465

2007-05-10T22:38:00.000-07:00

No, that's not the M's winning percentage. Nor is it Willie Bloomquist's OPS (his BA+SLG+OBP isn't even that high, let alone his OPS). That's what batters are hitting off of Jeff Weaver. Some may argue that it's just luck -- the bad kind -- that Jeff's just been unlucky. I say he's been pounded, and it's going to continue.

It's not like Sexson's poor batting average. Sexson is hitting the ball hard, he's just hitting it right at people, or the defense just makes an outstanding play. Weaver, on the other hand, is being blasted. Hitters are taking good swings at bad pitches. His breaking stuff isn't breaking away from where the hitters expect it. They see the ball and they hit the ball, and it's likely it's hit hard.

They say that a high BABIP is one way to determine if a pitcher is "lucky" or "unlucky" -- that if a pitcher has a high one, going forward it's likely to even out, and his results should improve. And, conversely, if a pitcher is having abnormally positive results, and his BABIP is low, he'll work his way back to normal. This also assumes that the pitcher has major-league quality skills.

Does anyone believe Jeff Weaver has major-league quality skills? I'd bet that Jeff himself doesn't.

I hate to rag on Jeff, I really do -- especially since I was advocating that the M's sign him in the 2005-6 offseason (for 4 years $32 million, even!). But this team is still in the race, and has a decent amount of offense to carry a less-than-strong pitching staff. But it's very clear they can't start games behind 4-0, 6-0, 5-0 in the first. That sucks the wind out of everyone.

And, losing fans = losing money. They've already committed the funds to Jeff. A suitable replacement shouldn't cost more than an additional $500K (if you believe in the concept of freely available talent).

I think you mean Thompson...

Edit: 11:30 A.M. 5/11/07. USSM is reporting a couple of roster moves are about to happen. One of them is presumably Weaver. Best of luck, Jeff, pulling it together. I thought you'd fit in here, and pitch pretty decently. Now that you've shown us you can't, best of luck to ya!

Kevin Jarvis Redux

2007-05-10T15:21:00.000-07:00

Jeff Weaver is done as a Major-League pitcher. Done. Any more appearances here will hurt this team's chances of making the playoffs, even if it's out of the 'pen.

In recent memory, Kevin Jarvis is the worst pitcher I can think of -- yes, even worse than 2006 Joel Pineiro. I know that's a lot of money to just flush down the toilet, but it was already headed that direction when the decision was made to sign Weaver.

Kevin Jarvis
Joel Pineiro
Steve Trout
Tom Niedenfuer
Bobby Ayala

ALL of the above were better than Jeff Weaver.

I know Ryan Feierabend needs some more seasoning. I'm all for giving Campillo another shot just for the heck of it. Yes, Felix is supposed to come back next week. Still, we need a pitcher and not a belly itcher!

And we need Jeff Weaver away from this team.

Rainiers Report #5 - Lord Byron, WladWatch '07, Joe Saunders

2007-05-06T16:09:00.000-07:00

The Rainiers were held to a mere 3 hits over 8 strong innings by Joe Saunders and lost a 6-2 decision to the first-place Salt Lake Bees today in Tacoma.
At least the R's made the most of their hits: Brant Ust homered to right on a change away, and Jeff Clement broke out of a slump with a pulled HR to right on a fastball. Bryan LaHair had the other hit off of Saunders, an inside-out liner down the third base line, but he was erased trying to stretch it into a double.
R's starter Jake Woods went 6 innings, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits, striking out 6 and walking 3. Using a very good curve (around 76-78) and his mid-high 80s FB, Woods did a great job of limiting the damage from the heart of the Bees' order: 2-3-4 hitters Terry Evans, Jeff Mathis and Kendry Morales were a combined 1-14 with no runs scored. Unfortunately, lead-off hitter Nathan Haynes was 3-5 with a HR (as a LHB, no less), and Matt Brown was 2-4 with a 2B.
The Rainiers videotaped an inning or two of Woods pitching; perhaps they could work on how he's holding runners on. The Bees stole 4 bases before Adam Pavkovich was caught stealing second (off of Byron Embry - more on him later) - 3 steals came off Woods. The first baserunner of the game, Terry Evans, immediately stole second and then third off of Woods. I've been wondering why Rob Johnson's CS% has been down this year - today was a clue.

"Lord" Byron Embry came on to work the final three innings, and the husky righthander struck out 5 of the first 6 he faced. Through two, the big fella was simply untouchable. While he gave up an unearned run in the 9th, it was still an impressive performance for the indy-league veteran. Below are a few photos of his delivery, this time from the third base side. I'd intended these to show that Embry hides the ball, ala Emiliano Fruto, making his 90-93 FB seem much faster. I'm not sure that they do show that, though I suppose they'd need to be taken from the batter's viewpoint to say definitively. I'd also wondered if they'd show more of a 'short arm' delivery, again, like Fruto, but the only thing they proved to me is that Embry is a large, large person.

This one actually hints at why Embry's so tough: he does look like he may be hiding the ball behind his head. It also shows that Embry is putting his per diem for meals to good use.

This one shows Wlad Balentien waiting for a fly ball that never comes: Embry K'd 5, had 3 GB outs and one CS in his 3 innings of work.
All in all, a great job by Lord Byron, who really needs a better nickname.

Special Feature:
Mariners Morsels Asks the Tough Questions (and gets questionable results) #1:
Tonight's subject, SP Justin Lehr

MM: Justin, has the M's organization worked on your delivery/motion at all this year?
JL: *look that implies questioner is either annoying in general, or has annoyingly just farted*
MM: You've traditionally had a much higher GB ratio than this year; it's closer to even in 2007.
JL: *look that says, 'if I could punch you without consequence, I *totally* would.'* "Well, my last start it was 12 GO to 5 AO."
MM: That's good to hear; the previous start was 9:9.
JL: *smiling the way one smiles to people who've explained the Venusian conspiracy that's taking over the food supply* "Yeah."

Tough questions: MM asks them. Like the person who merely loosens the jar's lid, I bet Justin will spill his guts to the next person who merely asks him for an autograph - all crying like it's a Barbara Walters interview, some confused 5 year old tentatively reaching for his ball back to go ask someone more stable.
Stay tuned for more hard hitting journalism...

Three things to say.

2007-05-02T21:30:00.000-07:00

Wlad Balentien is awesome.

Welcome back to the West, Doyle!

Free Chris Antonetti!

Let this Nightmare be Over!!!

2007-04-29T14:57:00.000-07:00

If a starting pitcher can't last more than 1/3rd of an inning vs. the KC Royals, that pitcher is done as a major-league starting pitcher.

Felix Hernandez is due back in 5 days. Cha Baek pitched decently today. Bump him up a day and let Felix take the 5th. Even if Felix isn't able to come back right away, there are still better options within this organization. A roster move needs to be made. Let Weaver be the casualty, not Baek.

Okay, Time to Change the Lineup...

2007-04-25T22:39:00.000-07:00

Going into the season, it was pretty much common knowledge on the blogs that the M's offense was the strength of the team. And we all figured that this offense would be average at best. Surely, the question marks were larger in the rotation, and the lack of faith in the rotation has proven to come true. Yes, I'm saying this even in spite of Washburn's shutout tonight. I'm definitely a fan of Washburn, and he's having a very decent start to 2007, but he's more of a 'luck' pitcher than most. He's a safe bet to succomb to Hendu's law of averages.

A quick glance at the team stats on THT shows that the M's are currently are second-to-last in the AL in OBP, edging out only Texas, whose .302 team OPB is only .003 points lower than the M's. But in spite of that, they're still in the middle of the pack for runs scored per game -- a skosh below average, but still good enough for second in the division (with Texas, ironically, at the top of the list -- hmmm, and they also have a Bloomquist-esque sub-400 SLG). Perhaps some of that came from the M's double-digit runs scored in the last home game vs. Texas.

One thing we all talked about as being very vital to this team's success was the start that both Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre got off to. Both of them have had at least one or two awesome games, but it's very, very clear that both of them have yet to get things going. Sexson's got a few Funk Blasts, sure, but he's still off to a horrible start, as is somewhat typical. Ibanez' decline is clear. Beltre's been predicatbly inconsistent. Just because there's been some serious scheduling issues doesn't mean that a lineup shakeup isn't in order. While Vidro's been hitting OK, he's also either been on the front end or the back end of a lot of GIDP's. The only comparison to Edgar I see is that he's still able to get his hits decently, but he's a liability on the base paths. A move down in the batting order could both spark the offense and minimize some of those GIDPs.

With these thoughts, and several others, in mind, here's what I'd do with the current M's hack-o-matic lineup:

1) Ichiro, CF, duh. He's been Ichiro, with a slightly lower average, and a slightly higher SLG.
2) Adrian Beltre, 3B. Well, I'm not sure there's a better option here.
3) Kenji Johjima, C. Hot bat even after a two-day injury absence. Leading the regulars with OPB.
4) Jose Lopez, 2B. Thought about swapping him and Joh, but I want the OPS batting third. Unlike Sexson, he doesn't strike out, and he does get on base -- relative to his teammates, of course. Might also help Jose rediscover his power stroke.
5) Jose Vidro, DH. Move him down in the lineup. Need a 'lefty' to break things up a little. Provide a little more OBP to the MOTO.
6) Richie Sexson, 1B. Yeah, he probably wouldn't like this 'demotion' but for now, that's where I'd put him. Either that, or I'd bench him for Broussard (and bat Broussard 4th or 5th)
7) Raul Ibanez, LF. Slump, slump, slump. Having the three slowest runners down further in the lineup harms them probably a little less than further up in the lineup.
8) Jose Guillen, RF. He needs to get his bat in gear. Quickly. Tell him that Mike Scoscia called, and he is now to report to the 8th slot in the lineup. Yeah, that'll make him angry.
9) Yuni Betancourt, SS. Well, if he does get on, he's got the speed to not get in Ichiro's way.

I realize Hargrove will never change things THAT drastically. There are too many egos involved, and too much money to bench. Still, Broussard needs to play much, much more than he is. Heck, give Burke some time at DH on occasion. I just want some more offense. The horrendous pitching is seriously going to need a boost.

Go ahead, Hargrove, shake things up...

Rainiers Report #4 - Roster Chaos

2007-04-21T08:08:00.000-07:00

So, the rumor about Brandon Morrow making his first start vs. Kevin Millwood down in Arlington? And that Jake Woods is down in favor of Sean Green? Well, I don't know if it was the slew of 'WTF?' comments over there or a sober look at the innings the bullpen's been racking up, but the M's brass seemed to have changed their mind about a few things.
Cha Seung Baek, last night's probable starter, wasn't in uniform, which led to a spot start by Jason Mackintosh. Sean Green, who was supposed to be in Seattle to be a long reliever behind Morrow, was in Tacoma, catching the ceremonial first pitch and then pitching one rather lackluster inning in relief. So: while both Woods and Baek are still listed on the Tacoma roster, keep an eye on the M's website (bastion of internet rumors!) and let's see if Baek doesn't come up if/when Felix is DL'ed.

Last night's game was notable in large part for Mackintosh's sterling first AAA start. He's soon to be 27, with a fastball at 85-87 MPH, so he's not exactly on a lot of prospect lists, but he exhibited great command and hid his change-up well. He induced some very ugly swings from some good hitters, like Justin Knoedler, whom he got swinging on 3 straight changeups. The News Tribune got a nice photo of Mac that's on the front page of the sports secton this morning, and the accompanying story has the details of Jason's journey to Tacoma from the bustling metropolis of Jackson, Tennessee. The new guy pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 hits (one a roped double, and the other a comebacker that died about 80 feet from home plate), giving up no runs, and striking out 4 to 1 walk.
Ryan Rowland-Smith came on in the 6th and gave up 4 runs on 3BBs and 3H in only 2/3 of an inning. Jon Huber finally had a nice outing, going 2 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, before Sean Green allowed 1 run in his one inning.
As the Rainiers only mustered 1 run, there really wasn't much offense to speak of. Wladimir Balentien continued his hot start, going 2-3 with a walk. Wlad's out was a smashed one hopper that the Fresno SS made a great play on to get Wlad by a step. Adam Jones got a hit in the 9th, and Jeremy Reed and Brant Ust both slammed doubles to right.
We'll see if Salt Lake City helps the M's bats come to life, as Ryan Feierabend goes for the R's tonight in Utah. The R's return on April 30th versus Colorado Springs.

Cheney Game Report 4/19/07 -- With Photos

2007-04-21T01:06:00.000-07:00

So, I've discovered that there are just not enough hours in the day. I took this afternoon off to come home and catch up on stuff, but left work at 2 p.m. instead of 12:30, as I'd intended. Ugh. Someone just needs to hire me to be a full-time photographer, and that way the other stuff would be less-likely to get in the way. Heh.

Anyway, I wanted to jot down a few quick notes from the game I attended on Thursday at Cheney. It was good to see Dan Rohn back in Cheney, and, for good measure, it only took him one Rainiers batter to get tossed from the game. See, Adam Jones lead off the bottom of the first by popping up towards Justin Leone, who, not so atypically dropped the ball. By that time, Adam Jones was rounding second, and headed towards third. Hard to tell by this angle, whether or not he was safe:

Much to Dan Rohn's chagrin, the umpire called him safe. Neither the Grizzly covering third on the play...

...nor Dan Rohn liked the call. But Adam Jones seemed to enjoy the umpire ejecting Rohn:

Later in the game, Justin Leone still was holding a grudge, even after hitting a home run. I don't think he was saying nice things about the umpire's mom:

He even showed the ump his "O" face:

Jim ~~Morris~~ Parque actually held his own in the game. He's got a funky delivery:

And he surrendered a HR to Justin Leone. But, other than that, he pitched decently, and seemed to get better as the game went on. It happened to be $1 hot dog/beer/pop/coffee/popsicle night, and I had my 5-year-old, so I don't know how crowded the beer garden was. I suspect that the other half of the crowd that didn't show up for that was probably in some way connected to Parque -- a Puyallup resident. Several of the kids he's coached were there, including the nice kid sitting next to us that put up with Joey throughout a good part of the game. I was glad to see him pitch effectively for the Rainiers, and get his first win in a long, long time. He had some control issues, but overall it wasn't a bad performance at all.

Prentice Redman, serving DH duties for the night, hit his first HR of the season:

But Wlad lead the club with two hits. It was the first time I've seen him in person. Looks like a good one.

Byron Embry came in to close the game out.

He reminded me in so many ways of a good Emiliano Fruto:

Similar in physique, similar in delivery (though Embry uses his legs a whole lot more than Fruto) -- had I not remembered that Fruto was pitching in the Nationals organization, I would've thought he was pitching last night.

It was a great game, and Joey had fun meeting Jason Churchill. Especially since Joey's a bit of a charmer and wound up schmoozing Jason out of the three baseballs he'd collected from the Cheney Stadium roof by the press box. Actually, it was the first time I'd met him in person, too. After the game was over, we went down by the R's dugout. Robby Johnson happened to come by to say hello to some friends, I suspect. Snapped this portrait of him:

Can't wait to get to more games up there. The full photo album is on my photography web site. There's even a bonus link to a Byron Embry pitching motion Flash file...
I'll try to get to Parque's tomorrow.Er, later today, when I wake up.

The Big 3-0!!!

2007-04-19T11:11:00.000-07:00

Well, Deanna likes to remind people whose birthday it is frequently, but so far it looks like I've beat her to saying "Happy Birthday George!" Even better, it's George's 30th today. Heh, welcome to the 30's! So far, they don't suck too horribly.

Make the best out of today, even if you have to come in and get the likes of Mauer, Morneau, and, well, Tyner out tonight.

And gosh darnit! Happy belated birthday to elsid, George's older brother. I knew I forgot to do something this weekend...

Rainiers Report #2: Timmay!

2007-04-17T22:42:00.000-07:00

The Rainiers beat the Fresno Grizzlies tonight 2-1 on a 9th inning 2-run 2b by Jeff Clement. Despite the walk-off heroics, the final score can be somewhat difficult to remember after a performance like the one from Tim Lincecum tonight - so I wanted to get it out there early.

Lincecum - and the game itself - was similar to the way Jered Weaver carved up the Rainiers last April before the bullpen blew it for him. Unlike Weaver's game for Salt Lake, the Rainiers couldn't muster an extra-base hit (no Scott Youngbauer this year), and unlike Weaver, Lincecum didn't surrender a walk. Three gb singles was all the R's could do.

With a fastball touching 99MPH in the first (according to the Grizzlies gun, which seemed, if anything, rather slow) and a slider/curve at 86, Lincecum didn't need pin-point command. He was a little off with his mechanics, which led a lot of his breaking stuff to miss high (out of the zone, fortunately for him). He got around this with what the Grizzlies pitchers swore was a change up (around 84 MPH). I asked multiple times, because it looked to me like it broke more than a Cruceta fork/split. Suffice it it to say, if this is a change, it's unlike anything we've seen since vintage Pedro Martinez; there's changing speeds, and then there's changing physics. Lincecum and Martinez seem to do the latter.

The guy in front of me kept asking for radar gun readings from the Grizz, and seemed somewhat nervous. But he seemed to know a hell of a lot about pitching mechanics....wait a minute... yep, it was Tim's dad. This is the guy that built Tim's unorthodox delivery, and the guy who many many professional scouts said was off his rocker. I asked him if he felt vindicated now that Lincecum (still not icing after the game; he was on the top step cheering on his relief corps) is slicing and dicing the PCL. Basically, he said he didn't pay his critics any attention at all, but you could tell this subject was near and dear to his heart. If he's right, he's on to the holy grail of baseball; the team that halves or eliminates pitcher attrition wins, period. Unlike Mike Marshall, another pitching guru that's had thousands of naysayers, Chris Lincecum actually has a star pupil that'll be in the bigs in a few weeks. Lincecum can *demonstrate* that he's built a better mousetrap - the question is, will anybody notice? It's tough, without detailed medical records, to really separate out Tim's other-worldly physical gifts (no ice? I'm sorry, i can't get over this... really? Does he have first generation nanobots in his shoulder?) from what his dad claims is his stress-free delivery. But given the potential value of Chris's insights, I can't believe people aren't beating down a path to his door.
It's been said many times that baseball is a sport that venerates tradition- or even more than that, a sport that loves to see echos of the past in new players. That's great; it's cool when a young CF reminds people of Mays, or when a big SS reminds people of Ripken/Rodriguez/Tejada. The downside, of course, is that people who don't have clear antecedents are often maligned (unfairly). Tim's answered his critics- it's no longer about Lincecum. It's about a way of thinking that sees only risk, and misses an opportunity to do things better.

Rainiers notes:
Campillo's change (76 MPH) was impressive tonight, and he rode it to 6 innings of 1 run baseball. He got 5 ks to only 1 BB - 3ks in his final inning, winning some lucky fan $5,000. His FB was in the 86 range. He was trying to work in a curve that had decent break, but it obviously needed some work. Chris Lincecum thought he looked like an injury waiting to happen, esp. on the curves. I had to tell him that Campillo was fresh off a year lost to TJ surgery.

Adam Jones made a great running catch in the first, but as we've seen, the simple plays often elude him. The grizz got their one run when Scott McClain singled to center after Justin Leone doubled. It was a sharp grounder to CF and everyone was waiting for the play at the plate; a good throw beats Leone easily (He's not exactly Jose Reyes out there)... Jones let the ball under his glove. Not an error in the scorebook, but it's things like that that keep Jones from being an elite defender.

I'm still really impressed with Wlad Balentien, who went 1-3 with a walk in very difficult conditions. He still K'd once, but his K:BB ratio is about 2-1, and he's K'd in just less than 1/4 of his PAs. So far, so good for the kid from Curacao.

Brad Thomas pitched three scoreless for the win. It marked his first successful appearance for the Rainiers, and hopefully the mechanical issues/whatever that plagued him his first few times out are gone for good. He looked nasty at times with a good breaking ball that moved almost as much (though not quite) as Eric O'Flaherty's slider.

Mariners Morsels - aka "Free Adam Moore and Rich Poythress! (George Sherrill is FREE!)"

Just Do It, Jack!

The Voice of the Mariners is Silenced

Goodbye Junior!

On Hyphen and Griffey...

My comment to Larry Stone on the Felix situation

Today's a New Day!

Thank You, Junior!

Adam Moore is FREEEEE!!!!!

Mia Culpa to King Felix, Take 2

What the $@@gf WAS That???

POYTHRESS YESSSS!!!!!

Draft Day, 2009

Oh, Wlad... Oh, Wak...

Finally!

Rainiers Update

Whoops!

Summary, Thus far...

*Ahem* Uh, is this thing on?

I didn't mean like that...

Oh Dear...

What is Wrong with Hyphen???

Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaack

Hmmm...

Heck of a first trade, eh?

Thoughts on Zduriencik

One Hundred!

What if...

Wow? No posts in August?

Dave Niehaus, the First Mariner in the HOF

George being George...

See, I told you!

Goodbye, Sonics! Go to HE__, NBA!

Hey, now! Look at this!

Something to ponder...

An All-Star Game Berth for GS52???

Welcome to Seattle, Erik!

Three Lessons...

Griffey in 2008?

Screw Junior -- The M's Need Bonds!

Now Batting: WFB... Are You SERIOUS???

Hey -- LOOK! He CAN Bend His Brim!!!

Rohrbaugh, Jimenez dominate

Four for Four...

So...Ryan Feierabend?

2008 Rainiers Season Preview

Breaking News: GS52 LIVES!!!

Free At Last, Free At Last!!!!

My Roster, come March 31st...

It's About "Frick"-in' Time!

Happy Pitchers & Catchers Day!!!!

It is Finished.

To Laugh, or to Cry?

Good Bye GS52!

Now that's more like it...

Survived, so far...

Please, Bill, DON'T PANIC!!!!

Pre-Thanksgiving Thankfulness...

A Hearty Welcome to Hardball Review!

It's Over!

Epic Save of Ruthian Proportions...

Giftwrapped

I'm baffled...

Buy Austin's CD!!!

Putz-less in Seattle???

Robert Rohrbaugh

Familiar Faces [+ bullet points]

Jorge Campillo says 'Hi.'

Dear John:

Save #2!!!

Hank Aaron, I Will Always Love You!

Hey, Jose -- Scoscia's in Town!!!

Fuuuuuudddggggggge

Ranting and Raving

Crank up that Hot Seat!!!!!

Opportunity Wasted, Making me More Afraid. AKA 2006 Draft, Revisited...

Free Adam Moore!

All Star Game Day Reaction

...But McLaren's the Right Man for the Job

Not Off to a Good Start...

Ahem Uh, is this thing on?

Rainiers Report #6: sound of vomitting